42% of American adults will be obese by 2030, study says

[fkizz]

The ranks of obese Americans are expected to swell even further in the coming years, rising from 36% of the adult population today to 42% by 2030, experts said Monday.

Kicking off a government-led conference on the public health ramifications of all those expanding waistlines, the authors of a new report estimated that the cost of treating those additional obese people for diabetes, heart disease and other medical conditions would add up to nearly $550 billion over the next two decades.

The sobering projections also contained some good news, the researchers said: Obesity's growth has slowed from the record pace of most of the last 30 years. If those trends were to continue, 51% of American adults would qualify as obese in 2030.

Study leader Eric Finkelstein, a health economist at Duke University in Durham, N.C., said it was unclear whether growth had slowed thanks to public policy initiatives aimed at preventing childhood obesity, greater societal awareness of obesity's health risks, or because Americans have hit the maximum level of fatness a population can sustain.

Whatever the reasons, further small successes in anti-obesity efforts — more effective weight-loss drugs, public health campaigns to encourage exercise and more-healthful eating, or workplace health promotion policies — could flatten the curve even more, Finkelstein said at the second annual Weight of the Nation conference in Washington, sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"Even small improvements in obesity prevalence ... could result in substantial savings," he and his colleagues concluded in their report, which was published online Monday by the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

The forecast took into account a host of factors thought to influence Americans' eating and exercise habits, including the cost of groceries, the prevalence of restaurants, the unemployment rate, Internet access and the price of gas.

Most important was the aging of the population, which tends to nudge many overweight adults into the obese category — and to push many of those who are already obese into "severely obese" territory. The number of severely obese Americans is expected to grow from about 5% today to 11% in 2030, the study said.

The findings are based on data collected from 1990 through 2008 as part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a survey by the CDC and health departments in the states. Measures of obesity were based on body mass index, which is calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared. A BMI of 18 to 24.99 is considered healthy; those in the 25-29.99 range are considered overweight; people above 30 are classified as obese, and those above 40 are severely obese.

In January, two CDC studies suggested that obesity rates were stabilizing at 17% for children and 35% for adults. That was based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

The Weight of the Nation conference brings together 1,200 experts from around the country. A centerpiece will be the airing of portions of a four-part documentary with the same name that was produced by HBO and the Institute of Medicine, with support from the CDC, the National Institutes of Health, Kaiser Permanente and the Michael and Susan Dell Foundation.

When the documentary airs on HBO next week, it may be a rude shock for Americans whose nightly ritual involves grabbing a snack and escaping to a televised world without fat people while junk-food advertisements wash seductively and insistently over them.

Source: http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may...esity-20120508

So far the country with leading obesity/ leading fat rates on earth.

Source: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/he...health-obesity

So with the ever growing USA obesity rate, what will be of america's health future? As a nation suposedly leader of the west, I personally find it faulty that they give such a display - a flawed area that can be solved, but isn't and instead finds embarassment and suggest a poor lead example.

Do you find the obesity rates worrying or something to shrug it off? Do you think a country shouldn't be judged by its obesity rates? Should disresgard, and focus on a strong military to impose respect?

Can the fast food, the main culprit perhaps in the fatness issue, be prevented? Should fast food be fought, or embraced as part of the american culture, even if causes people to be fat and unhealthy?

I personally find it a problem that should be adressed - fairly easy to solve when compared to middle east trouble for example, and both the image and health of its citizens would improve.

Interested in hearing your opinions on this issue of obesity and unfitness.

[SuperTechmarine]

Must have something to do with their 15$ Trillion USD Debt.

[Imperial]

BMI...meh. Are we still the only third world country that uses that horrible way of measuring fat? For every statistics that come out about obesity using BMI, probably 40% of the people are misclassified.

LOL @ blaming fast food for the obesity problem. Hell, even McDonald's came out and said that their food is unhealthy. People just want fast and cheap food, and that's what they get.

[fkizz]

BMI...meh. Are we still the only third world country that uses that horrible way of measuring fat?

LOL @ blaming fast food for the obesity problem. Hell, even McDonald's came out and said that their food is unhealthy. People just want fast and cheap food, and that's what they get.

Sure Mc Donalds is a high calorie food with very easy acess (cheap) and also addictive, but I do agree it's not the only culprit.

You propose a wider cultural role on eating habits? Possibly lack of restraint?

[Fluttershy]

Sure Mc Donalds is a high calorie food with very easy acess (cheap) and also addictive, but I do agree it's not the only culprit.

You propose a wider cultural role on eating habits? Possibly lack of restraint?

make mocking fat people socially acceptable!

name and shame our way to skinniness!

[Imperial]

make mocking fat people socially acceptable!

name and shame our way to skinniness!

This is probably the only way.

I don't date fat girls...but not for the reason that you may think. You may say that it is because they're disgusting looking...well yes, but it's more because I find their lack of self-respect disgusting, not just their appearance. You see, I work hard in keeping in shape, and I would expect my significant other to do the same thing. If I'm going to look good for her, then she should at least attempt to look good for me. It's a respect issue.

Shallow? Probably.

[Fluttershy]

This is probably the only way.

I don't date fat girls...but not for the reason that you may think. You may say that it is because they're disgusting looking...well yes, but it's more because I find their lack of self-respect disgusting, not just their appearance. You see, I work hard in keeping in shape, and I would expect my significant other to do the same thing. If I'm going to look good for her, then she should at least attempt to look good for me. It's a respect issue.

Shallow? Probably.

thats not shallow at all, thats actually a valid reason. I on the other hand wont date fat chicks BECAUSE they are disgusting (to me) looking, that IS incredibly shallow :p

[NotYetRegistered]

make mocking fat people socially acceptable!

name and shame our way to skinniness!

Then fat people would just eat more because they feel sad.

[mrmouth]

BMI...meh. Are we still the only third world country that uses that horrible way of measuring fat? For every statistics that come out about obesity using BMI, probably 40% of the people are misclassified.

That's absolutely part of it. The issue of being unhealthy is far more an issue than people being overweight, as being overweight doesn't automatically mean you are unhealthy. And BMI doesnt allow for any level of accurate tracking of health. In fact is is flat out terrible at that and only still exists due to convenience.

1. The person who dreamed up the BMI said explicitly that it could not and should not be used to indicate the level of fatness in an individual.

The BMI was introduced in the early 19th century by a Belgian named Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet. He was a mathematician, not a physician. He produced the formula to give a quick and easy way to measure the degree of obesity of the general population to assist the government in allocating resources. In other words, it is a 200-year-old hack.

2. It is scientifically nonsensical.

There is no physiological reason to square a person's height (Quetelet had to square the height to get a formula that matched the overall data. If you can't fix the data, rig the formula!). Moreover, it ignores waist size, which is a clear indicator of obesity level.

3. It is physiologically wrong.

It makes no allowance for the relative proportions of bone, muscle and fat in the body. But bone is denser than muscle and twice as dense as fat, so a person with strong bones, good muscle tone and low fat will have a high BMI. Thus, athletes and fit, health-conscious movie stars who work out a lot tend to find themselves classified as overweight or even obese.

4. It gets the logic wrong.

The CDC says on its Web site that "the BMI is a reliable indicator of body fatness for people." This is a fundamental error of logic. For example, if I tell you my birthday present is a bicycle, you can conclude that my present has wheels. That's correct logic. But it does not work the other way round. If I tell you my birthday present has wheels, you cannot conclude I got a bicycle. I could have received a car. Because of how Quetelet came up with it, if a person is fat or obese, he or she will have a high BMI. But as with my birthday present, it doesn't work the other way round. A high BMI does not mean an individual is even overweight, let alone obese. It could mean the person is fit and healthy, with very little fat.

5. It's bad statistics.

Because the majority of people today (and in Quetelet's time) lead fairly sedentary lives and are not particularly active, the formula tacitly assumes low muscle mass and high relative fat content. It applies moderately well when applied to such people because it was formulated by focusing on them. But it gives exactly the wrong answer for a large and significant section of the population, namely the lean, fit and healthy. Quetelet is also the person who came up with the idea of "the average man." That's a useful concept, but if you try to apply it to any one person, you come up with the absurdity of a person with 2.4 children. Averages measure entire populations and often don't apply to individuals.

6. It is lying by scientific authority.

Because the BMI is a single number between 1 and 100 (like a percentage) that comes from a mathematical formula, it carries an air of scientific authority. But it is mathematical snake oil.

7. It suggests there are distinct categories of underweight, ideal, overweight and obese, with sharp boundaries that hinge on a decimal place.

That's total nonsense.

8. It makes the more cynical members of society suspect that the medical insurance industry lobbies for the continued use of the BMI to keep their profits high.

Insurance companies sometimes charge higher premiums for people with a high BMI. Among such people are all those fit individuals with good bone and muscle and little fat, who will live long, healthy lives during which they will have to pay those greater premiums.

9. Continued reliance on the BMI means doctors don't feel the need to use one of the more scientifically sound methods that are available to measure obesity levels.

Those alternatives cost a little bit more, but they give far more reliable results.

10. It embarrasses the U.S.

It is embarrassing for one of the most scientifically, technologically and medicinally advanced nations in the world to base advice on how to prevent one of the leading causes of poor health and premature death (obesity) on a 200-year-old numerical hack developed by a mathematician who was not even an expert in what little was known about the human body back then.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=106268439

[Surgeon]

Just take free healthcare away from fat people, then nobody will care

[Condottiere 40K]

Rural America Fatter Than Urban America

People living in rural settings tend to be more obese than their urban counterparts. (Getty Images)


By DR. JULIELYNN WONG, ABC News Medical Unit
Sept. 14, 2012



City slickers are slimmer than their country counterparts, according to a new study that suggests rural obesity is a bigger problem than we realized.
A national study in the Journal of Rural Health of over 8,800 Americans showed that country folks were nearly one-fifth more likely to be obese compared to those living in cities. In other words, the findings suggest, where you live is important in obesity.
"The rates of obesity were much higher than previously reported based on self-report, with 39 percent of rural Americans being obese compared to 33 percent of urban Americans," said study lead author Christie Befort, an assistant professor in the Department of Preventive Medicine at the University of Kansas Medical Center in Kansas City, Kan.
Past studies have asked people about their weight, but researchers in this study were more precise. They carefully collected their data on obesity through a national database based on adults who stepped on a scale and had their height measured. "We know people tend to overestimate how tall they are and underestimate how much they weigh," said Befort. The authors were astounded to discover that the rates of obesity in rural populations were nearly double compared to prior studies based on self-reported estimates.

N.C. Named the 10th Most Obese State Watch Video



New Study: Obesity Rates on the Rise Watch Video



This study defined obesity as a body mass index equal to or greater than 30 kg/m2. To figure out your body mass index, click here to use a calculator from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
So who is obese in rural America? Apparently, the problem is greatest among young people.
"The differences between rural and urban were most pronounced for younger adults between the ages of 20 and 39," said Befort. The researchers suspect that the increasing mechanization of rural jobs may be the cause. "The diet hasn't necessarily changed at the same time the manual labor requirements have gone down."
"It's really remarkable that younger adults are sharing more of a burden than older rural adults," said Harold Kohl III, a professor at The University of Texas School of Public Health in Houston, who was not involved with the study. "It's important because they've got longer to live and they will live longer with the consequences of carrying too much weight."
Certain ethnic groups in rural areas are also at greater risk for obesity. Barry M. Popkin, professor of nutrition at the School of Public Health at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, who was not involved with the study, points out that this study also shows that rural blacks and Hispanics are more likely to be obese than urban blacks and Hispanics.
It's also important to understand the root causes of rural obesity. The researchers point to two factors -- diet and physical isolation.
The study found that the overall diet of country people is much higher in fat.
"My own family has rural roots in Kansas," said study author Befort, She told of visiting her grandmother's kitchen as they prepared for a potluck.
"A whole jar of mayonnaise was going into a casserole dish," she said. "I was like, 'Do you know how many calories are in a tablespoon of mayonnaise?'"
The response, Befort recalls, was, "Oh Christie! It tastes good!"
"There is very little awareness and concern about how preparation contributes to calories in the food," she said.
While country diets remain high in fat, rural residents also face challenges to buying healthy food.



continued http://abcnews.go.com/Health/rural-a...9#.UFUzolGfLtQ

[Phier]

I'm in the best shape of my life since I was in my early 20's, and I'm over 40.

The only reason this bothers me is idiot socialists think we owe these people health care as a right.

Otherwise let them be fat. Its their problem. If they want to fix it, its pathetically easy but it takes a little effort and self control.

[Vanoi]

I'm in the best shape of my life since I was in my early 20's, and I'm over 40.

The only reason this bothers me is idiot socialists think we owe these people health care as a right.

Otherwise let them be fat. Its their problem. If they want to fix it, its pathetically easy but it takes a little effort and self control.

You say that now, but just ignoring it will not make this growing epidemic go away.

[Ludicus]

The only reason this bothers me is idiot conservatives think obesity is not a social problem. The obesity epidemic is getting worse around the world. Obesity is a social problem with a social solution.

[Col. Tartleton]

The only reason this bothers me is idiot conservatives think obesity is not a social problem. The obesity epidemic is getting worse around the world. Obesity is a social problem with a social solution.

It's not an epidemic. It's personal choice brought upon by availability of food.

Everyone in this society has the ability to get fat or lose that weight. That's a choice.

Obesity is hypernutrition.

Obesity might be a symptom of something else, say depression, but that's an entirely different issue.

[Ludicus]

It's not an epidemic.

Obesity has become truly a global problem, it´s a socio-economic issue, it´s a big problem in our society; it's not "their" problem- it´s our society's fault; by the way, it's not just an American problem, obesity is a world wide problem.People need too make better choices, but we also have to change those choices, in our worksites, in our schools, in our child care centers, in our worksites, and in our communities.
Read and learn,
Controlling the global obesity epidemic

The Continuing Epidemics of Obesity and Diabetes in the United States

Epidemiologic and economic consequences of the global epidemics of obesity and diabetes

[Phier]

I was actually quite thin when I drank a LOT of pepsi but thats because it was basically a meal replacement while I was in grad school. Once I got a life so to speak, I cut it out of my diet entirely.

The only reason this bothers me is idiot conservatives think obesity is not a social problem. The obesity epidemic is getting worse around the world. Obesity is a social problem with a social solution.

Bread lines are not a good solution my friend.



(Soviet queue in front of a bakery)

[Babur]

I was actually quite thin when I drank a LOT of pepsi but thats because it was basically a meal replacement while I was in grad school. Once I got a life so to speak, I cut it out of my diet entirely.

what about Diabetes?

Bread lines are not a good solution my friend.



(Soviet queue in front of a bakery)

Life has become grim indeed under Obama

[Matthias]

It's a combination of a ton of factors.

- More sedentary work than in the past
- Ease/cheapness/convenience of unhealthy food relative to healthy food (fast food sure plays a part here)
- Human biology that craves salty, sugary, fatty foods over blander foods
- More driving everwhere than walking
- Human psychology and effectiveness of advertising
- Unhealthy food as just another "drug" to escape depression/stress/anxiety

And there still is a lot of shame that goes with being fat in society, it sure makes the "diet" industry a ton of money, but that shame is not near enough to overcome all the other factors, it's just overwhelming. Of course, as society becomes fatter, especially as a community becomes fatter, the shame factor does go down a bit within the community I guess, but not in broader society.

If you have more money, you generally have the time and money to buy better quality, healthy food and cook it yourself so that it's actually good tasting and not bland, and you have the time to exercise, to counterbalance your sedentary job, and a lot of places to exercise if you're in a nice neighborhood. Not to mention you have more access to health resources and better education to make good food choices.

As for how to solve it, it involves huge structural issues that will take a while to address, like how to get anywhere you have to drive. That won't be solved soon, though they're working on making more walkable communities. Trying to implement more local, fresh farmer's markets help, but there are still plenty of food deserts, especially in inner cities, where access to healthy fresh food is hard to reach. Regulating advertising agencies that prey on people's natural human weaknesses can help to an extent. And even taxing certain restaurants that are just egregious isn't bad either. These companies are essentially profiting by imposing huge health care costs on the rest of society. They are in effect polluting people, and it's a very costly business we end up paying for. Mandatory exercises at work, especially sedentary workplaces, would help as well. All this just makes too much common sense yet for a lot of localities though. They'll learn.

[DimeBagHo]

It's a combination of a ton of factors.

a - More sedentary work than in the past
b - Ease/cheapness/convenience of unhealthy food relative to healthy food (fast food sure plays a part here)
c - Human biology that craves salty, sugary, fatty foods over blander foods
d - More driving everwhere than walking
e - Human psychology and effectiveness of advertising
f - Unhealthy food as just another "drug" to escape depression/stress/anxiety

I doubt if it's any of those things. The obesity epidemic started in the US in the 1970s and then spread to the rest of the world. So all of these are complete non-starters as explanations because those factors had all been around far longer.

Some of those factors might be used to explain why one individual is fatter than another, but none of them explain why the overall number of fat people started to increase at the time and place that it did.