Battle of Blackwater(Spoilers)

[Mr.Lannister]

Hello guys.

I propose the suggesting topic for discussing:

Battle of blackwater.
What would have happen'd if something went different?
What if stannis had won? Or Tyrion had died?
Lets TALK!

[Pyres Δt Varanasi]

The Key Point of the Battle was the arrival of the Tyrell-Lannister Army at the End, If Littlefinger would have not secure that alliance i believe that Stannis would have taken King's Landing and the Lannister would not EMERGE as the SUPREME power of Westeros since the Tyrell-Lannister Alliance would have not happend and the Union of Westeros strongest Houses.

Also i was thinking if Joffrey instead of running away back to the Red Keep he should have stay and they could have manage to keep the Morale High and turn the tide of the Battle (This is a Maybe not so sure about this one)

[concannon23]

Stannis would have ground his teeth and took the Iron Throne.

[OberynMartell]

If not for littlefinger, Stannis would have taken the Iron throne.

[Gambrinous]

Also, Robb not telling Edmure his and the Blackfish's plan probably had something to do with it.

[Karazor]

if Stannis won he would have sent another bach of thousand of ravens to tell everybody that he won the iron throne wich is his by right and everyone should bend the knee , consecinte:

the martells would either have stayed neutral and wate a litle bit to see what happens or would have requested a mariage betwin his youngest son and Shireen and demand the head of tywyn and gregor hmm mayybe only gregor , but they still would have sent prince forg after daenerys

the Tyrells either would suck up to Stannis and try to get more power on his court like filling his small councill with Tyrell Bannermen , maybe if shireen were to die he would name Edric Storm the bastard of Robert heir and the tyrells would request a marriange , another posibility for the tyrells would be to pursue the dragon queen Daenerys , or Declare themselvs independent and name themselvs Kings of the Reach and seek out alliances with other houses

Bolton would still try to betray Rob somehow to get more power with one of the bigger factions either Lannisters or Baratheons

The freys would to try to pursue betrayel of the starks or suk it up and continue to serve

The Lannisters would either surender in case Stannis takes Crcei , tommen , jofrey and so on prisoners , or if Stannis kills them Tywin would maybe pursue vengence and insted of wanting the iron throne he would be satisfied with the westerlands and try to ally to someone to defeat his enemies . There are more posibilities to Tywins faction but i don't wish to explore

The Ironborn would continue to raid maybe conquer some bits of land , and continue with the plan of Euraon

The Starks would try to pursue yet again peace with Stannis or declare war on him too , they would maybe continue the fight with the lannisters or pursue pece by demanding to be recognized as and indepeddent realm or Jayme Dies since what point is in keeping him alive since Stannis has the city of KL and may have Sansa prisoner , the starks would try to ally with the Tyrells and Arryns and DOrne again, rob would continue to go north and may or may not be killed in a red wedding that may or may not happen

and so manny other things

oh the arryns faction : Lysa would await orders form Litlefinger

[Prophet1331]

The Martells would probably stick to themselves after all they still got Myrcella and would find themselves courted by the Lannisters. However they would still look for the Targaryens.

The Tyrells would probably abandon the alliance because it was conditioned on the marriage between Margaery and Joffrey/Tommen. Myrcella is already promised to Dorne so there's no change getting her and that would probably anger the Tyrells (that Dorne would have more power than them). I don't think they'll go to Stannis because he would probably accuse them of treachery and assuming they don't get beheaded they'll lose their lands and status to the Florents. They might consider an alliance with Robb or something with Euron but I don't see it working.

The Lannisters would probably try to use Myrcella to get back to the throne. They still have an army and Stannis would be vulnerable holding only King's Landing in the Crownlands. Tywin might try to risk a full out assault on the city because they don't have anything to lose. Small chance for Casterly Rock to find new allies now. Their only chance would be that the Tyrells stay with them and help them in the attack on King's Landing.

The Vale will be in a perilous position. Littlefinger would probably get beheaded for treason despite his talent for finances. More likely he'll try to join Tywin and get Harrenhal or try and join Robb, considering Robb will wage war on Stannis.

The Tullys would still stay loyal to Robb, and the Twins would still plan their revenge but I doubt that they would risk anything with a Red Wedding now that Tywin isn't there to protect them, and Stannis' judgement would be severe after such an event. The Bolton's plan would still be on hold until they get another opportunity. Though all this if news reaches them before they reach the Twins. It would be real unfortunate if after the wedding they find out King's Landing switched sides and they have to fend for themselves against and enraged North.

The Ironborn wouldn't move against the Reach mainly because their army and fleet are still close enough to turn back and face them,They would probably replan.

I don't know what Robb would do. He has a good change of finishing of the Lannisters now that they are in chaos. He might join Stannis claiming that he has no claim on the Iron Throne and he would join the King's Peace if he is pardoned for his rebellion (small chance that Stannis would do that). If this happens than you would probably see a Stark-Baratheon-Tully alliance against Lannisters-Tyrell-Arryn. That would be a good 3 more years of war.

If somehow Robb decides he likes his crown too much and goes to war with Stannis things would get allot more interesting. Stannis can't move against the Starks until he has King's Landing secured form the Tyrells/Lannisters so he has to push them back before doing anything else. The Lannisters would strive to take King's Landing back so almost all it's forces will be put into that struggle with the rest of the army defending the Westerlands. Robb is safe now to retake the North and if he's quick enough (or gets the Arryns to join thanks to Littlefinger) he can consolidate his position in the south so whoever wins the Stannis-Lannister struggle will be weakened and easy pray for a revitalized northern army.


Long comment I know

One question though: Should the Tyrells not join, would Tywin's force alone be able to throw back Stannis at the Battle of the Blackwater considering Tywin still has the element of surprise?

[Stannis Baratheon]

If Tyrion had died or been captured(as he should, him getting alive out of that fight is nonsense and GRRM's bias) the defenders would rout immediately. Stannis would managed to get most of his force across the river in front of Tywin's and Tyrell's noses. He would enter the city and manned the walls or shores. Lannister-Tyrell army would find it practically impossible to cross(the size of their army, Stannis' army defending the shores and burning wreckages floating on the river). Ilyn Payne would kill Cersei and Sansa(which i wouldn't like). Joffrey would gone completely mad and i believe Stannis shouldn't find it very difficult to break into Red Keep). Joffrey would be executed(or perhaps imprisoned, but i doubt it).
Tywin would then be in deep . They couldn't besiege KL effectively beacuse Salahador Saan would keep Stannis provisioned. Mace Tyrell wouldn't be elated either and i think would turn on Lannisters sooner or later. Tywin could go to Rosby and proclaim Tommen new king, but with Starks in his lands they would be in huge trouble. Tywin wouldn't surrender beacuse Stannis would have executed him, but Tyrells would turn on him sooner or later. Stannis would probably had to pardon them(although i don't think he would be very happy about it, especially with Mace). OR Lannister-Tyrell would continue to resist and be surrounded between Robb and Stannis. They would get aninhilated, but if Robb wanted to stay King of the North and Riverlands, there would be a battle between them. (Which Stannis would win ).
The other thing that could happen if Tyrion died, most of Stannis' army would cross, but Stannis himself wouldn't make it in time and got captured. (Now that would be an awful outcome.)
Or Tyrion could get captured or even killed by Cersei, which would mean lack of chain, and possibly wildfire, making the Cersei dumbest person in ASOIAF when Stannis captured the city.

[Karazor]

If Tyrion had died or been captured(as he should, him getting alive out of that fight is nonsense and GRRM's bias) the defenders would rout immediately. Stannis would managed to get most of his force across the river in front of Tywin's and Tyrell's noses. He would enter the city and manned the walls or shores. Lannister-Tyrell army would find it practically impossible to cross(the size of their army, Stannis' army defending the shores and burning wreckages floating on the river). Ilyn Payne would kill Cersei and Sansa(which i wouldn't like). Joffrey would gone completely mad and i believe Stannis should find it very difficult to break into Red Keep). Joffrey would be executed(or perhaps imprisoned, but i doubt it).
Tywin would then be in deep . They couldn't besiege KL effectively beacuse Salahador Saan would keep Stannis provisioned. Mace Tyrell wouldn't be elated either and i think would turn on Lannisters sooner or later. Tywin could go to Rosby and proclaim Tommen new king, but with Starks in his lands they would be in huge trouble. Tywin wouldn't surrender beacuse Stannis would have executed him, but Tyrells would turn on him sooner or later. Stannis would probably had to pardon them(although i don't think he would be very happy about it, especially with Mace). OR Lannister-Tyrell would continue to resist and be surrounded between Robb and Stannis. They would get aninhilated, but if Robb wanted to stay King of the North and Riverlands, there would be a battle between them. (Which Stannis would win ).
The other thing that could happen if Tyrion died, most of Stannis' army would cross, but Stannis himself wouldn't make it in time and got captured. (Now that would be an awful outcome.)
Or Tyrion could get captured or even killed by Cersei, which would mean lack of chain, and possibly wildfire, making the Cersei dumbest person in ASOIAF when Stannis captured the city.

you make it seem like stannis would be the winner he may be a good millitary leader but few people like him and Manny hate his guts at the political part of beiing king he would fail totaly cuz that fing red priestes would give her pie to him every night and he would listen to everything that whore sayd

[Lord AcidRocker]

If Tyrion had died or been captured(as he should, him getting alive out of that fight is nonsense and GRRM's bias) the defenders would rout immediately. Stannis would managed to get most of his force across the river in front of Tywin's and Tyrell's noses. He would enter the city and manned the walls or shores. Lannister-Tyrell army would find it practically impossible to cross(the size of their army, Stannis' army defending the shores and burning wreckages floating on the river). Ilyn Payne would kill Cersei and Sansa(which i wouldn't like). Joffrey would gone completely mad and i believe Stannis should find it very difficult to break into Red Keep). Joffrey would be executed(or perhaps imprisoned, but i doubt it).
Tywin would then be in deep . They couldn't besiege KL effectively beacuse Salahador Saan would keep Stannis provisioned. Mace Tyrell wouldn't be elated either and i think would turn on Lannisters sooner or later. Tywin could go to Rosby and proclaim Tommen new king, but with Starks in his lands they would be in huge trouble. Tywin wouldn't surrender beacuse Stannis would have executed him, but Tyrells would turn on him sooner or later. Stannis would probably had to pardon them(although i don't think he would be very happy about it, especially with Mace). OR Lannister-Tyrell would continue to resist and be surrounded between Robb and Stannis. They would get aninhilated, but if Robb wanted to stay King of the North and Riverlands, there would be a battle between them. (Which Stannis would win ).

this is likely the case.

[Stannis Baratheon]

you make it seem like stannis would be the winner he may be a good millitary leader but few people like him and Manny hate his guts at the political part of beiing king he would fail totaly cuz that fing red priestes would give her pie to him every night and he would listen to everything that whore sayd

While Davos is near, either as Hand or small council member, i don't think things could get that bad. Stannis being Melisandre's puppet is going a bit too far. He allied with her beacuse he needed her power to win the throne, not beacuse of his deep faith in R'hllor. Why should he need her so much after he got the throne?

[Pinkie Pie]

While Davos is near, either as Hand or small council member, i don't think things could get that bad. Stannis being Melisandre's puppet is going a bit too far. He allied with her beacuse he needed her power to win the throne, not beacuse of his deep faith in R'hllor. Why should he need her so much after he got the throne?

I agree he will probably reward her with a seat on his small council but he would not consider her opinion more important than anyone elses.

[Karazor]

I agree he will probably reward her with a seat on his small council but he would not consider her opinion more important than anyone elses.

or maybe to apease the people and the priests of the seven he will either exile or execute melisander

[Stannis Baratheon]

If Robb would agree to return being Lord of Winterfell i believe Stannis would pardon him, he was willing to do same with Renly although he found his claim worse than Robb's.
Tywin alone with his 20000 men would have no theoretical chance of storming KL. Let's say Stannis lost a quarter of his land army on Blackwater (5000 men are large losses) he'd still have 15000 men manning the walls, and most of them knights. I think even with Tyrells it would be very hard to take city by storm.
And yes even without Tyrells Tywin would win as Stannis' army was decimated, demoralised and neck deep in river.

[Prophet1331]

If Robb would agree to return being Lord of Winterfell i believe Stannis would pardon him, he was willing to do same with Renly although he found his claim worse than Robb's.

Renly was his brother while Robb is a rebel trying to break away. If anything the only reason Stannis would pardon him would be because of Eddard Stark's honor.

Tywin could have chosen a quicker route because he wasn't supposed to reach the Tyrells. So even without the Tyrell boats Tywin would have arrived somewhere at the end of the battle, when Stannis broke the walls, stormed into the city and was laying siege to the Red Keep and whatever city defenders remained. Or at the latest just after the entire city fell, so Stannis wouldn't have time to reorganize his men and repair the walls.


The city would have its defences severely battered, the population would be restless following the sack, and Stannis' men tired. Tywin with all his forces regrouped and/or with the Tyrell forces could have encircled the city by land and while not laying siege, start building catapults and trebuchets. I'm pretty sure after a weak or so the combined Lannister-Tyrell force would be able to launch a successful assault on the city (considering the fact that Stannis brought pretty much all his force to the battle so he wouldn't have anyone to come attack the combined force from behind).

[Pinkie Pie]

Tywin used a large fleet of boats commanded by the Tyrells to reach King's Landing in time. If the Tyrells do not join him he has no boats, if he has no boats he won't get to the city until after the battle is over.

[Mr.Lannister]

Okay, here is what i think:

If Tyrion is slain during the battle *Cough*Ser Mandon Moore*Cough*
the defenders would lose morale and stannins would conquer the city, he would execute every lannister, Sansa, afraid of what Stannis could do with her, she will flee the city with Dog, and Sandor will deliver her to Robb, and he will try to execute Dog because he was serving the lannister, Sansa should plead for his life and succed, and so dog enters in Stark service and rescues Robb in the red wedding, and we will have a happy ending for everyone (Lansiturs nope, ...)

[Stannis Baratheon]

Renly was his brother while Robb is a rebel trying to break away. If anything the only reason Stannis would pardon him would be because of Eddard Stark's honor.

I got the other impression. When he got Renly's army, he said something like "good and true men served Joffrey, believing him to be true king. A northman might even say the same about Robb Stark. But these lords knew they were traitors, yet they continued to follow Renly". Baratheon brothers didn't really have much love for each other.

The city would have its defences severely battered, the population would be restless following the sack, and Stannis' men tired. Tywin with all his forces regrouped and/or with the Tyrell forces could have encircled the city by land and while not laying siege, start building catapults and trebuchets. I'm pretty sure after a weak or so the combined Lannister-Tyrell force would be able to launch a successful assault on the city (considering the fact that Stannis brought pretty much all his force to the battle so he wouldn't have anyone to come attack the combined force from behind).

The walls weren't damaged in battle, yes the rammed gates would have to be replaced but Stannis didn't really use much machinery in assault, he would use rams and ladders(siege towers couldn't be transported by the boats). You would need a lot, lot of stones from catapults and trebuchets to seriously damage walls of King's Landing, yes it isn't a castle but such a huge city probably has strong walls. Also Stannis' men could return fire with the Whores. Presumed that there wouldn't be things like burning Baelor's Sept the people wouldn't openly turn against them. If Mace Tyrell was afraid to attack Storm's End with 200-300 garrison with his huge army and Lannisters Riverrun with 200 men, i think that 90000 men(who are mostly levies) wouldn't overcome 15000 men(who are mostly knights). Even if they could, the losses would be huge.

Okay, here is what i think:

If Tyrion is slain during the battle *Cough*Ser Mandon Moore*Cough*
the defenders would lose morale and stannins would conquer the city, he would execute every lannister, Sansa, afraid of what Stannis could do with her, she will flee the city with Dog, and Sandor will deliver her to Robb, and he will try to execute Dog because he was serving the lannister, Sansa should plead for his life and succed, and so dog enters in Stark service and rescues Robb in the red wedding, and we will have a happy ending for everyone (Lansiturs nope, ...)

That's a bit too flowery ending for GRRM . IIRC the Sansa wanted for Stannis to conquer the city so she can get rid of Lannisters, even if she could escape Ilyn Payne i don't see her running with the Hound.

[Mr.Lannister]

I had more ideas about this but they suddenly dissapeared while i was writing that, i forgot the mention of Auburn haired, half-faced burned babies?
(yes, sansa and dog should marry)

[Lord AcidRocker]

I had more ideas about this but they suddenly dissapeared while i was writing that, i forgot the mention of Auburn haired, half-faced burned babies?
(yes, sansa and dog should marry)

To me, there was always some sort of romantic aura around the hound and sansa. Kind of like florian and jonquil but with a more realistic, dark, repugnant layer. There is some awesome art that details the whole protecter/damsel in distress theme for the two but I suppose this isn't the thread for that.

Also, if you were trolling, im still serious about it