Coup D'etat in Venezuela seems more likely
Ever since Hugo Chavez discovered he had severe prostate cancer there has been rumors that the Venezuelan leader has only a couple of years left to live. According to Wikileaks emails from Stratfor, the cancer has spread to his spine and has become impossible to cure. A former personal doctor of Chavez revealed that Chavez has only two years to live, though this has been denied by the Venezuelan government who insist he will survive beyond the up coming elections.
The situation in Venezuela is chaotic to put it mildly. The country is arguably in worse shape than during the periods of military rule and dictatorships in the mid 1900s. The economy is in ruins and all industries except the oil industries have collapsed. Shocking as it may seem, the country is even more dependent on the oil revenues to fund public projects and subsidies in food, water, petrol and other necessities.
Hugo Chavez is well aware that his end may be nigh and has therefore created a transitional council called the "Council of State" that relinquishes many of his duties and ensures a smooth transition if he were ever to pass away from his disease or worse. Naturally the government is unwilling to raise rumors and has denied it is anything but to “improve government efficiency". His health has deteriorated to such an extent that he may not even be able to participate in the elections on October 7. Without Chavez, a opposition victory will be guaranteed and a change of power will ensue. Chavez is the only candidate that still holds more than 50% approval rating supported mainly by the poor after the majority of the upper and middle classes fled the country. Chavez has created a totalitarian regime where all the media has been gradually come under his control and there is no opposition except one television channel that is now only available in cable and even then have to remain cautious in how they criticize the government.
Furthermore, if Chavez does not participate in the elections a coup d'etat is a virtual guarantee by the military who will rather take control of the state by force than relinquish it democratically to the surviving opposition. The problem for Chavez is that ever since his health has deteriorated his authority in government has diminished considerably and has now ceased to be the ruler of the country and has become a mere figure head and puppet controlled by the military. Some that were loyal to Chavez are now questioning their allegiance and thus Chavez is now fearful for his life and power. To reduce the chances of a military coup he has established a "Anti-Coup Command" on 13 April 2012 but even this may prove futile.
As the Financial Times reports:
Although Chavez has been regarded as one of the worst rulers in Venezuela's history, a take over by the military would make things much worse. Chavez himself is not even seen in public anymore and spends basically spends most of his time in Cuba.Nelson Bocaranda, a prominent opposition journalist, wrote in his Thursday column that the council was designed to prevent a “traumatic” end to Mr Chávez’s rule. “The president knows that he cannot leave the country in the hands of questioned officials who have attracted the world’s attention to recent cases of drug trafficking, corruption and the violation of human rights,” wrote Mr Bocaranda, adding that it was a “virtual certainty” that Mr Chávez would not stand for re-election in October.
All of this is exacerbated by the recent assassinations of two of Chavez most loyal military generals, the most important of which is Wilmer Moreno. The assassination of Wilmer Moreno on April 19, is suspected to be linked to drug trafficking conflicts though this is simply speculation. It is possible that the military has become divided and one group is targeting loyal supporters of Chavez in order to facilitate a coup d'etat. The involvement of high ranking military generals in the drug trafficking business became public when Eladio Aponte, a former general himself fled to Costa Rica and asked for asylum in the U.S. embassy and told the media the truth behind the scenes (although he did not admit he was also part of that business). Supposedly, Chavez is not involved which demonstrates how out of hand the military has become.
Wilmer Moreno is thought to have used his influence to by pass security checks of numerous military trucks that were carrying drugs from Colombian guerrilla groups such as FARC. The drugs would end up in the Venezuelan ports and would then make their way to European countries. He was suppsidly killed by members of the opposing cartel that fight for control of the supply routes in the Colombian-Venezuelan borders.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...555212742.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5bce0f6c-9...44feab49a.html
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/03/1...mails-say.html
http://blogs.miaminewtimes.com/ripti..._in_less_t.php
Note: Much of the information comes from Venezuelan newspapers.
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Originally Posted by Menelik_I
