The UK local and London elections

[removeduser_487563287433]

We don't have a thread on this that isn't dominated by small-party bias so I wanted a nice clear thread to discuss the results, coming in full swing across the UK. The BBC's live stream, including coverage by old man Dimbleby, is here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17824250

It's already a big victory for Labour, which is the coalition is not going to be surprised at. Despite a lacklustre performance from Labour on the campaign trail, opinion is down against the Conservatives and their Lib Dem partners. The Lib Dems are experiencing their worst local election in their history. The Tories have lost control of all but one of their eight defence priorities.

On the side lines, Plaid Cymru are hoping to gain control of Gwynedd Council - they only need one additional seat to do this. UKIP are projected to receive 13% of the vote, but not to particularly increase their council seats. The Greens however have already added four councillors. Shockingly, Respect have pushed their momentum after Galloway's recent bi-election victory to win five council seats, ousting the leader of Bradford Council.The SNP are performing far worse in Scotland vs Labour than they did in the Scottish Parliamentary elections. The BNP's only councillor has lost her seat.

In London results will not be available until late tonight. In Liverpool the first ever mayoral election in history has been won by Labour. But elsewhere cities have repeatedly voted no in referenda to bring in elected mayors, which almost certainly spells the end of the city mayors project and in my opinion is quite a tragic set back for local democracy.

[Jom]

It could be much worse for the Conservatives - not for the Lib Dems, however - as an interesting piece of analysis on the live stream just pointed out: they're only down 7%, which is a figure that, historically, parties have recovered from and gone on to win the next general election or two. It's when the numbers get >12% that things start to look bad and the next general election starts to look very shaky. That's only going on local election results, however. I can't remember who said it - perhaps someone else in the thread will - but just before the 2010 general election, it was said that the party who needs to implement the reforms to cut the deficit will end up being unelectable for the next 10 or 20 years, due to how hated the measures needing to be taken will be. So whilst the analysis looking at simply local election trends is interesting, whether it will ring true in 3 years' time will be another matter altogether.

[Father Jack]

Plaid Cymru have lost their majority in Gwynedd and have lost seats in Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire, Denbighshire, Wrexham, Neath, Swansea and Monmouthshire. They didn't even appear on the ballot boxes for a lot of south Wales. I wonder if this is a response to their recent SNP style independence rhetoric. They have lost their seats in the northern and western regions largely to independents.

[Musthavename]

But elsewhere cities have repeatedly voted no in referenda to bring in elected mayors, which almost certainly spells the end of the city mayors project and in my opinion is quite a tragic set back for local democracy.

These have all been kept quite quiet. I don't actually live in one of said cities (nor plan to), but it's getting ridiculously low attention. What surprises me is I figured it'd be a yes almost everywhere if there was low turnout, since i'd have wagered the people that care enough to vote for it would outweigh the people who care enough to vote against it - infact it seems the opposite is happening. If i'd been in a city I would've voted against it, but i'm not, nor do I plan to.

[Spitfire -WONDERBOLT!]

I'm very pleased at the result, the conservatives (lol) are not being punished for being tough, (although I'd say too tough) anti-British parties are in decline, and two of the more respectable fringe parties are beginning to grow, and ukip is serving it's purpose (being voted for but not elected to power).

All and all not a bad show.

[Menelik_I]

In the silly side of things, I found this butt hurt attempt to connect UKIP with the BNP by Conservative Baroness Warsi. The video in the spoiler

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I would pay to see Nick Clegg in face of this results, and it sees that UKIP is sinking the Conservatives in many places.

[justicar5]

In the silly side of things, I found this butt hurt attempt to connect UKIP with the BNP by Conservative Baroness Warsi. The video in the spoiler

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I would pay to see Nick Clegg in face of this results, and it sees that UKIP is sinking the Conservatives in many places.

Nick Clegg has apologised to the Councillors who lost seats, UKIP may be splitting the vote. Unlikely to be having a major effect tho.

[Menelik_I]

UKIP may be splitting the vote. Unlikely to be having a major effect tho.

I heard that there were rumors of defections from Conservatives and it seemed that the rational was that UKIP splitting the vote would cause more defections. What about that ?

[justicar5]

I heard that there were rumors of defections from Conservatives and it seemed that the rational was that UKIP splitting the vote would cause more defections. What about that ?

Defections? Not afaik, UKIP have a base level of support pretty much everywhere, (Like the Lib Dems really) rather than concentrations of support (Like Lab/Con do) [this feeds into why they wanted AV btw], so they hurt the Conservative vote (and lib dem/labour but to a lesser degree) the same amount everywhere, basically if they where going to do damage by splitting the vote, it would a) hurt all the parties, mainly Con, but Lab and the Lib Dems also take some pain and b) have already happened, they aren't polling that much higher than they did last time around and even if they took all the votes they gained off the tories..it wouldn't do anywhere near the damage that the tories have taken, they are up about 4% iirc and the tories are down way more than that,

[Aymer de Valence]

In the silly side of things, I found this butt hurt attempt to connect UKIP with the BNP by Conservative Baroness Warsi. The video in the spoiler

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I would pay to see Nick Clegg in face of this results, and it sees that UKIP is sinking the Conservatives in many places.

I too was disgusted to hear this - she realises a threat to her own party then it seems. I was glad Nick Robinson pounced upon this point before it was allowed to stand...

[calicheSCOT]

The SNP are performing far worse in Scotland vs Labour than they did in the Scottish Parliamentary elections.

Early days yet. They may fail to take Glasgow but that was a serious challenge for any party, let alone an incumbent of 5 years. There is still a large number of important cities that can go either way, and I'm sure the SNP will come out on top with more Councillors.

Its important to note that local elections are totally different to national ones, so its not really a good idea to compare like for like.

[removeduser_487563287433]

Early days yet. They may fail to take Glasgow but that was a serious challenge for any party, let alone an incumbent of 5 years. There is still a large number of important cities that can go either way, and I'm sure the SNP will come out on top with more Councillors.

Its important to note that local elections are totally different to national ones, so its not really a good idea to compare like for like.

Maybe not to compare directly but the SNP needs to prove its support base generally, not just in single types of elections.

[calicheSCOT]

Maybe not to compare directly but the SNP needs to prove its support base generally, not just in single types of elections.

Not really, the factors that influence how people vote at a local level vary too much. Pair this with the fact that you have two governments in Scotland and things get even more confusing.

What is remarkable is that there are no 'mid-term blues' for the SNP, they gave Labour a drubbing in a country that was painted red just a decade ago. The increased share by Labour in the rest of the UK is not at all evident north of the border, which is surprising considering how commentators have stated the rise is due to opposition to UK government policies you would expect to see a similar effect in a former Labour bastion.

In all an encouraging result for the SNP.

[Poach]

Not really, the factors that influence how people vote at a local level vary too much. Pair this with the fact that you have two governments in Scotland and things get even more confusing.

What is remarkable is that there are no 'mid-term blues' for the SNP, they gave Labour a drubbing in a country that was painted red just a decade ago. The increased share by Labour in the rest of the UK is not at all evident north of the border, which is surprising considering how commentators have stated the rise is due to opposition to UK government policies you would expect to see a similar effect in a former Labour bastion.

In all an encouraging result for the SNP.

Scotland's a rather interesting outcome indeed. The SNP hold a very marginal lead over Labour countrywide (SNP holds 34.8% of council seats, Labour 32.3%), but due to PR have less councils fully under their control. Labour actually gained 1 more council seat than the SNP did, too, with the SNP up 57 and Labour up 58.

Where in England most of the defecting Lib Dem voters would likely have went Labour's way, and many marginal voters switching from Tory to Labour, in Scotland the Lib Dem voters culd easily switch to either SNP or Labour, and the Tories have a fairly weak presence up here anyway (only 10.7% before this election, which they've actually weathered fairly well up here, losing only 16 council seats and keeping their other 115).

It'd be interesting to know, though it is naturally unavailable, how many Lib Dem voters went to each of Labour and the SNP.

[Watercress]

Certainly not much of a surprise, but Labour's gains are somewhat remarkable with 'Red Ed' as their frontman.

[removeduser_487563287433]

Hilarious news! The UKIP's forgot to submit their party's name on the ballot paper for Mayor of London, and the UKIP candidate is listed as the "Fresh choice" candidate!

[justicar5]

Hilarious news! The UKIP's forgot to submit their party's name on the ballot paper for Mayor of London, and the UKIP candidate is listed as the "Fresh choice" candidate!

ahh the simple things that amuse us so.

[Aymer de Valence]

Hilarious news! The UKIP's forgot to submit their party's name on the ballot paper for Mayor of London, and the UKIP candidate is listed as the "Fresh choice" candidate!

? You must have a different ballot paper then somehow, because it was clearly marked on mine, and as for 'Winston', that man has no loyalty to any party. I believe only a year or so ago he was standing for a different party. The man is out for himself. UKIP or not, I didn't vote for him

[removeduser_487563287433]

What? The UKIP candidate is Lawrence Webb:

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/po...-choice-london

So far the mistake appears to have cost UKIP half of their expected votes.

[Aymer de Valence]

What? The UKIP candidate is Lawrence Webb:

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/po...-choice-london

So far the mistake appears to have cost UKIP half of their expected votes.

I am probably thinking of another election yesterday then, but Mr. Webb's name was clearly printed on my ballot paper. Some papers must have been printed incorrectly