[Updated]Portugal is preparing a military intervention in Guinea-Bissau/Angola's growing influence in the Portuguese-speaking world

[Vítor Gaspar]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

http://www.euronews.com/2012/04/13/p...guinea-bissau/

The Portuguese military was placed on high alert after an apparent coup in the tiny west African state of Guinea-Bissau, said Lisbon-based news agency Lusa on Friday.


The former Portuguese colony has suffered several military revolts since independence in 1974. The latest came just two weeks before a run-off election that was widely expected to see outgoing Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Jr win the presidency.
Gomes Jr and the interim country’s president Raimundo Pereira have been arrested.


The impoverished state, where the average wage is a little more than one euro per day, is a haven for cocaine traffickers from Latin America. Angola previously signed an agreement with Guinea-Bissau to send Angolan troops to train local soldiers.
A statement from the self-styled “Military Command” broadcast on state radio alleged that the PM had made a secret pact to allow Angolan troops to wipe out the Guinea-Bissau military.


There were reports that soldiers had ransacked the homes of several ministers and senior officials, many of whom are in hiding.
The Portuguese parliament denounced the coup and called for the immediate release of Gomes Junior amid reports Lisbon is preparing for possible military intervention.

As many expected the situation just got worse. Once again Angola (or better yet, the President - or shall I say "monarchic dictator" - José Eduardo dos Santos) keeps putting its nose where it doesn't belong. That's "New Angola" playing its game. As if the Congos weren't enough (which are ridiculously and surprisingly puppet states of Angola these days), with the Presidential Guard of both countries being supported and composed by Angolan soldiers, Angola now tries to influence and subdue other neighbouring countries, and lately Guinea (by far the most fragile of the former Portuguese colonies) has been under "attack" by Angola.

This just points out that Angola isn't to be trusted and the European Union should think again before making countries like Portugal having to rely on dictatorships to "save" the economy. I know this may seem a weird situation for those who are unaware of Angolan politics and the weight of Angola on Portugal but this is a serious problem. There were rumours of Angolan diplomats making sure the Portuguese press was "quiet" about certain situations (the most notorious being about a bunch of journalists who commented on how a certain TV debate about Angola had been biased) and now there is word that Angola is related to the coup in Guinea.

And when you realize that a single family - dos Santos, a bunch of bloodthirsty despots who rule over Angola ever since the end of the Indepence War - is on a shopping spree in Portugal with its new buddy, China, buying every large former public company this gets scary.

In fact, if Portugal is to intervene in Guinea, I believe it may be as much to rescue the small Portuguese community over there as it will be to defend Angolan interests in the region. This may sound like a conspiracy theory but I honestly feel like something like that may be going on.

After all this government has maintained very high level relations with Angola and the dos Santos family. I mean, even the Prime-Minister is married to an Angolan...

And why is Portugal intervening and not, say, Brazil? Brazil maintains as much relations with Guinea as Portugal does, and it has the weight and the armed forces (not to mention their economy) that Portugal doesn't have. That doesn't make sense, especially as Brazil is keen on Portuguese Africa and exerting its influence all over the place.

The thing may be that Angola can press Portugal into doing it and not Brazil, and the Portuguese military has the weight Angola needs. A NATO country, relatively well equipped, and willing to do something. It is too soon to understand what's going on but this has everything to become a main subject in the coming days, especially because of Portugal's situation - and it's not like the government couldn't use a small-scale intervention/war involving Portugal to distract the masses...

The day we get in a proxy conflict because of a dictatorship that was once a former colony of ours is the day we reach the bottom...

[fkizz]

Seems the Guerrila to spirit away Portuguese centuries old colonial presence didn't go minimally as planned.. 40 years after and they keep re-doing coup d'etats against themselves for independence..

[Facupay]

If Brazil wants to be considered a world power or at least a regional power they should intervene in Guinea, not a country twenty times smaller and in the middle of economic turmoil like Portugal.

[Vítor Gaspar]

If Brazil wants to be considered a world power or at least a regional power they should intervene in Guinea, not a country twenty times smaller and in the middle of economic turmoil like Portugal.

And the problem is that whatever Portugal may do in Guinea - if we do - won't be with the best interests of the Guinean people in mind and I'm afraid it will be for Angola. Then again that country is a huge mess and it's been proven that there isn't much that can be done about it. Cape Verde is just a few kilometres away and, despite having the independence at the same time and having no natural resources at all, is now considered one of the most developed African countries.

Brazil has intervened in the UN Security Council this afternoon but I have doubts they'll do anything. As long as the CPLP (the Lusophone commonwealth) doesn't allow for greater military cooperation and military intervention everything will have to be done unilaterally and Brazil has a past of trying not to get into the dirt with anyone. Which they should reconsider. But I guess they don't have much to gain, unless some notoriety.

For now they haven't brought up the military to the talks. Brazil is also way too connected to Angola to jeopardize their relationship for what is, in the end, a relatively meaningless country. I hear Guinea's diamond mines are mainly explored by Portuguese investors though, so besides the Angolan incentive they also have that going.

[fkizz]

If Brazil wants to be considered a world power or at least a regional power they should intervene in Guinea, not a country twenty times smaller and in the middle of economic turmoil like Portugal.

Guinea was never a brazilian colony, was a portuguese one, and military intervention is possible, the portuguese post-WWII colonial wars lasted on 3 warfronts for 15 years, ending due to a coup d'etat for democracy in portugal, 1974-75.

Extension pic related.

That said, better to stay away from that powder keg - they fought hard and killed for their independence, now they handle it, indepence isn't just advantages.

[CiviC]

Eduardo dos Santos? Is he still alive? It's like he's forever the leader of Angola, wait independent Angola never kenw another leader, I guess he should be deified because he's the Eternal Leader.

P.S. I also was convinced Ghadaffi would be eternal, but I guess I was wrong ...

[Vítor Gaspar]

So the CPLP (Community of Portuguese Language Countries), currently presided by Angola, just finished an emergency meeting in Lisbon and the approved resolution is that the CPLP will advance with a military joint task force if the UN backs the organization.

Angola, Brazil and Portugal were the main motivators behind the resolution. Currently the CPLP's statute doesn't allow for joint military operations (it is not a military alliance, strictly speaking) so they are trying to bypass that through the UN.

Apparently Brazil, which currently holds a seat in the Security Council, will bring that up on the next days.

The Portuguese Navy is dispatching 4 ships and a submarine to Guinea's coast tomorrow and it will apparently start the rescue of CPLP nationals and other European citizens who ask for help.

---

How convenient that Angola is presiding the CPLP.

[Claudius Gothicus]

I don't really get it that clearly... Angola is taking advantage of the serious economic situation in Portugal to break down another member of the portuguese-speaking ''commowealth'' ?

And who's Portugal going to help? Angola with it's life long Dictatorship?

[Vítor Gaspar]

I don't really get it that clearly... Angola is taking advantage of the serious economic situation in Portugal to break down another member of the portuguese-speaking ''commowealth'' ?

And who's Portugal going to help? Angola with it's life long Dictatorship?

That's pretty much what I fear, yes.

Hopefully Portugal's intervention, it this goes ahead, will be limited to the rescue of civilians. I hope. But I believe this is all about Angola.

As to a possible CPLP/UN intervention, well, hopefully someone else will take the lead. I do smell Brazil and China doing something in here (today's great players in Portuguese Africa), and this has everything to do with Angola. And Angola is tied to China. Hopefully, if this goes ahead, let the Angolans take the burden. They're the ones profiting from the situation and trying to create a ridiculous, third-world empire in Africa. It's laughable when you have a failed country trying to "fix" another.

Angola is a joke. Or more precisely, Eduardo dos Santos. If that man isn't put to place soon enough the Angolan Civil War and the Portuguese Colonial War will seem a joke.

Angola used to be Africa's industrial powerhouse, with South Africa. Look at what happened because of the Civil War. And that man profited from it like few did. He's one of the richest men alive and still his country is one of the poorest nations ever which, still, has a fearsome army for a Sub-Saharan country.

So, all-in-all, if Brazil pushes this in the Security Council, the UK will vote for (because of Brazil), China (if Angola is really behind this) will vote because of their allies, the US will probably vote for as well, and France may abstain or vote for (they don't care about anyone else but themselves). Russia may, though, say no, but I doubt they will if China is backing Angola.

[VALIS]

lol, Portuguese military.

[fkizz]

lol, Portuguese military.

4/10, made me reply, but trolling quality needs improvement. (if not trolling I guess guerrila warfare is something alien for you)

Actually US military hired advisors on how to fight guerrila wars from former portuguese colonial war COs (comanding officers).

Due to Portugal fighting for 15 years on 3 warfronts in much bigger countries, that ended due to a coup d'etat against fascism, while the US with topnotch hightech military only held 20 years in 1 warfront (losing), in a much smaller country than the US, while using high number top notch and high tech military, with no coup d'etat in between.

Against guerrilas, army size and tech alone won't guarantee you a victory.

Ask someone non-redneck in the US military about this, that preferebly graduated as an officer from a military academy and has some theorical knowledge of post-WWII XX century military history.

PS- Yes I obviously endorse the democracy coup d'etat and that the colonial wars finally came to an end, was just being a little more technical on this matter.

[Imperial]

while the US with topnotch hightech military only held 20 years in 1 warfront (losing), in a much smaller country than the US, while using high number top notch and high tech military, with no coup d'etat in between.

lol que?

[Halbard]

lol que?

'Nam

[Thorn777]

^Ive seen pics, they look badass. I also see the Portuguese football league now and then, and its all breaking legs. Portuguese come quite surprising.

[hellheaven1987]

Na, even Portugal did nothing Angola would ask AU to intervene.

[Border Patrol]

An African nation running a train on a European one? Oh how the turn tables...

[Exarch]

portugal must accept that it is no longer a power anymore and must endure the armoured thrustings of its betters

[Boicote]

portugal must accept that it is no longer a power anymore and must endure the armoured thrustings of its betters

Calm down. Portugal doesn’t want to restore the colonial empire. Any "military intervention" would have the simple purpose to rescue national citizens who may feel threatened by the recent events in Guinea-Bissau.
Portugal already integrates several peacekeeping operations under UN mandates all over the globe (in Kosovo, Afghanistan, East Timor...). If the UN approves an international peacekeeping operation to Guinea-Bissau, I don't see why Portugal should not join to such force, due to the historical relationship between Portugal and Guinea-Bissau.
Anyway, I think this is a good opportunity for the affirmation of the CPLP (Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries) as an organization with political influence in the international affairs.

[Portuguese Rebel]

Love it how guys who have absolutely no clue about this subject or the whole story behind it go around laying opinions left and right

Honestly, there will be no portuguese intervention at all. We are going there, extract europeans and out. Over a decade of war taught us that those africans can fend for themselves. No portuguese soldier will ever die again for a non existing empire.

What is true however is that this subject was brought about by angola trying to dominate a weaker country. But tell you what, it's not our problem. Guiné-Bissau have been independant since 1974. And they know how to defend their independance and are doing just so.

We have enough problems to deal right now even without getting tangled in another african confllict (that set the country back for decades BTW).

portugal must accept that it is no longer a power anymore and must endure the armoured thrustings of its betters

Its betters? I recognize no "betters". I'm portuguese and a very proud one. Would not like to be anything else.

lol, Portuguese military.

LOL ignorant...

[Vítor Gaspar]

Love it how guys who have absolutely no clue about this subject or the whole story behind it go around laying opinions left and right

Honestly, there will be no portuguese intervention at all. We are going there, extract europeans and out. Over a decade of war taught us that those africans can fend for themselves. No portuguese soldier will ever die again for a non existing empire.

I was hoping for it... it seems that the ships left Portugal this afternoon.

http://noticias.sapo.pt/nacional/art..._14155513.html

Now this will be a rescue operation, if things go awry, but yesterday the CPLP proposed the creation of a UN-backed military force to work as a peacekeeping force in Guinea. In other words, they asked the UN to issue a mandate and the CPLP member will, presumably, compose the force.

So that probably means Angola, Brazil, Portugal and, I believe, Cape Verde (which will help marginally but will surely do something as they're the closest country to Bissau).

Guinea-Bissau was Portugal's nightmare in Africa. The war in Angola and Mozambique was won by us, even if we ended up giving the colonies because of the revolution in Lisbon the truth is that everyone agrees that in Angola and Mozambique Portugal had won by 1974. But Guinea, dozens of times smaller than Angola, was hell. In fact, by the mid 60's, the war was lost. They got their de facto independence in 1966/7. Some call it Portugal's Vietnam because we were simply unable to win over the guerillas, unlike in Angola, and had to resort to napalm bombing and whatnot. From 1967 to 1974 the war in Guinea was all about covert ops by the Portuguese and unconventional warfare, including bombing and seeding internal revolts and conflicts between the PAIGC, the revolutionary forces.

And, because of that, it's also one the places in Africa that hates the whites and the Portuguese the most. Any intervention over there has to be extremely careful.

In my opinion this is nothing about us. If Brazil wants to increase its voice in Africa and turn the CPLP into a paramilitary alliance, fine. If Angola wants to control a puppet state, well, that's with them. Portugal shall not cooperate with that.

But, unfortunately, I feel there are greater interests at play in here. Angola's role in the Portuguese economy is great these days, and they're one of the main players in our recovery. That may mean we'll have a major participation in this event than I'd like.

Either Brazil steps on and takes the lead (and makes sure this is about Democracy and bringing a stable government to Guinea, and finishing with all the drug smuggling over there) or this will be all about Angola making sure the ones they like and the ones who they control stay in power.