Probability of Alien Invasion?

[Armatus]

Ok since I suck at maths, I'm wondering if someone could provide me with an answer here. I suppose we start with the drake equation for kicks, but then how do you figure the probability that there are technological aliens in existence interested and capable of invading earth?

[Gelgoog]

The probability that life exists in the universe is so high that it is foregone conclusion. Probability also suggests that life is fairly abundant throughout the universe.

The probability that intelligent life exist is also given, but space faring civilizations are probably fairly small compared to the abundance of life in general.

The probability that space faring civilizations making contact with one another is so incredibly remote due to the huge distances between star systems that the premise of aliens invading earth is pretty laughable. Seriously space is mind bogglingly huge, and for an alien race to locate us in the first place would be a huge feat, but to devote the resources to get here and invade would not only be ludicrous but futile. We do not have anything worth taking that can not easily be found elsewhere. If they wanted to study us they would likely just send mechanical probes to do so. If they wanted to destroy us they would just send a bio engineered virus/plague.


So are their aliens out there, sure there is no doubt in my mind. But are they something I am going to worry about....heck no. Any civilization that has the technological ability to get here would be so technologically superior that we would be metaphorical ants to their magnifying glass. Simply put, if they can find us and get here then we won't be able to spot them from doing whatever it is they want....so why worry about something you have no control over?

[John I Tzimisces]

The probability that life exists in the universe is so high that it is foregone conclusion. Probability also suggests that life is fairly abundant throughout the universe.

The probability that intelligent life exist is also given, but space faring civilizations are probably fairly small compared to the abundance of life in general.

The probability that space faring civilizations making contact with one another is so incredibly remote due to the huge distances between star systems that the premise of aliens invading earth is pretty laughable. Seriously space is mind bogglingly huge, and for an alien race to locate us in the first place would be a huge feat, but to devote the resources to get here and invade would not only be ludicrous but futile. We do not have anything worth taking that can not easily be found elsewhere. If they wanted to study us they would likely just send mechanical probes to do so. If they wanted to destroy us they would just send a bio engineered virus/plague.


So are their aliens out there, sure there is no doubt in my mind. But are they something I am going to worry about....heck no. Any civilization that has the technological ability to get here would be so technologically superior that we would be metaphorical ants to their magnifying glass. Simply put, if they can find us and get here then we won't be able to spot them from doing whatever it is they want....so why worry about something you have no control over?

well, since everything is really just "probably", the closest thing to being mathematical about it is add to the drake equation factors representing the ability and willingness to travel outside their solar system, to make contact, and to be hostile. Bearing in mind most of the drake equation is made up of variables for which we don't currently have data the answer at the end of the day is still "maybe".

[Gaidin]

well, since everything is really just "probably", the closest thing to being mathematical about it is add to the drake equation factors representing the ability and willingness to travel outside their solar system, to make contact, and to be hostile. Bearing in mind most of the drake equation is made up of variables for which we don't currently have data the answer at the end of the day is still "maybe".

One should make note, though, that the Drake equation is more a guide to the thought process of considering what the odds of intelligent life being found in the universe would be given certain conditions, and that is all it is capable of at the moment.

[florin87]

The probability that space faring civilizations making contact with one another is so incredibly remote due to the huge distances between star systems that the premise of aliens invading earth is pretty laughable

we already know how to build ships capable of ftl travel. all we lack is the technology to manufacture them. and we don't even show up on the civilization scale, yet.
now imagine what a civilization 1000 years ahead of us could do. now consider that there might be civilizations who are 10.000, 1.000.000 or even 1 billion years ahead of us.

and who says aliens have to be organic. they could be a robotic civilization or even automatons (like our space probes). for a machine time is irrelevant.

[John I Tzimisces]

...we don't know how to make anything that goes faster than light because we've never observed or controlled anything going faster than light...

the only hypothetical design out there (using available tech) are so-called pulse engines or drives or whatever, and that's something like a quarter of the speed of light, and it's hugely unfeasible because the design calls for detonating nuclear warheads to push a spacecraft along...

man I don't even want to think about time dilation when you're travelling at speeds like that.

[florin87]

...we don't know how to make anything that goes faster than light because we've never observed or controlled anything going faster than light...

the only hypothetical design out there (using available tech) are so-called pulse engines or drives or whatever, and that's something like a quarter of the speed of light, and it's hugely unfeasible because the design calls for detonating nuclear warheads to push a spacecraft along...

man I don't even want to think about time dilation when you're travelling at speeds like that.

i was talking about wormholes (which only require the discovery of a large enough energy source to become a reality) and the alcubierre "warp" drive (which works on paper, and doesn't even require exotic matter).
ok maybe we don't know exactly but we do have a general idea.
but yes time dilation would be a at those speeds.

[MathiasOfAthens]

Luna you forgot Maybe they have engines capable of FTL and they will only come here to eat us, and put the survivors on farms like chickens and pigs.

[Phier]

Provided FTL travel is cheap and easy for them, there still is motivation.

With an entire universe to explore and exploit, there would have to be a reason to bother taking over the earth, even for and giggles.

Food? Ridiculous.
Materials? Ridiculous (you have the whole universe)
Slaves? Ridiculous (if you can do FTL that easily, you can have robotics and genetically engineered slaves).

So unless the invaders were from a system close to us, where there was a limited range to their FTL, and there was some pressing REASON to bother attacking us besides for sport, I'd say we don't have to worry.

"God" help us though if they have religion, "These creatures must be saved/cleansed in the name of Zarquon the most Holy of Holies!"

[Claudius Gothicus]

So unless the invaders were from a system close to us, where there was a limited range to their FTL, and there was some pressing REASON to bother attacking us because for sport, I'd say we don't have to worry.

"God" help us though if they have religion, "These creatures must be saved/cleansed in the name of Zarquon the most Holy of Holies!"

Most likely the only reason for an invasion by FTL aliens would be the fact that somehow other group of FTL aliens was chasing them(like Huns, Goths and Romans).

[MathiasOfAthens]

Provided FTL travel is cheap and easy for them, there still is motivation.

With an entire universe to explore and exploit, there would have to be a reason to bother taking over the earth, even for and giggles.

Food? Ridiculous.
Materials? Ridiculous (you have the whole universe)
Slaves? Ridiculous (if you can do FTL that easily, you can have robotics and genetically engineered slaves).

So unless the invaders were from a system close to us, where there was a limited range to their FTL, and there was some pressing REASON to bother attacking us besides for sport, I'd say we don't have to worry.

"God" help us though if they have religion, "These creatures must be saved/cleansed in the name of Zarquon the most Holy of Holies!"

Listen when I go shopping for meat I prefer finely prepared cow meat. Not that cheap pig rip off. So if Aliens are looking for food, how do you know they dont prefer finely tailored human meat?

[saxdude]

Provided FTL travel is cheap and easy for them, there still is motivation.

With an entire universe to explore and exploit, there would have to be a reason to bother taking over the earth, even for and giggles.

Food? Ridiculous.
Materials? Ridiculous (you have the whole universe)
Slaves? Ridiculous (if you can do FTL that easily, you can have robotics and genetically engineered slaves).

So unless the invaders were from a system close to us, where there was a limited range to their FTL, and there was some pressing REASON to bother attacking us besides for sport, I'd say we don't have to worry.

"God" help us though if they have religion, "These creatures must be saved/cleansed in the name of Zarquon the most Holy of Holies!"

What if they are being chased by other aliens and need the recourses themselves?

[Phier]

What if they are being chased by other aliens and need the recourses themselves?

Sins of a Solar Empire aside, it all just depends on the ease of FTL travel.

If its very difficult then maybe. If not, than no point.

[PointOfViewGun]

Sins of a Solar Empire aside, it all just depends on the ease of FTL travel.

If its very difficult then maybe. If not, than no point.

Or they're a race that don't have the same perception of time. The can travel to anywhere if their race is fine with living on ships or traveling through cryogenic suspension. FTL is not a must, only a convenience.

[Magicman2051]

About as likely as global thermonuclear war.

[Holger Danske]

About as likely as global thermonuclear war.

Personally I believe we are far more likely to annihilate ourselves than getting invaded by ET, but in case that happens we're hopelessly screwed.

[6644kp]

What if we do come into contact with aliens but find out that their human, a small worm hole appears 30,000 years ago somewhere in europe/west asia for the first true humans the homo sapiens sapiens. A few hundererd enter and are teleported in effect to an earth like planet of the same size far far way. For some reason their techological advance is far more rapid than ours and they already have attained god hood, they no longer die from old age due to advanced nano technology that constantly repair their cells and have FTL ships and colonized their own quadrant of the galaxy with a population of quadrillions.
However they have always wondered what their true origins were since there were no fossil records of them on their home planet older than 30,000 years.
And one day they stumble upon the Pioneer plaques stunned to find out that the alien sattelite is in fact human made.
So they decide to visit us first landing in the sea of tranquility and finding this:

Spoiler for Large Image: 

Impressed they decide to visit Earth itself...

[Pielstick]

To all the people who say the universe is just too big for any civilisations to make contact:

3,000 years ago we thought thunder was made by angry gods living on top of a mountain in Greece.

500 years ago we thought the world was flat.

400 years ago we thought everything in the solar system orbited the Earth.

200 years ago the fastest we could travel was by horseback.

150 years ago the idea of heavier than air flight was a pipedream

100 years ago we thought the Milky Way was the universe and had no notion of galaxies.

80 years ago we believed supersonic flight was impossible and the idea of space flight was the mad dreams of fanciful eccentrics.

70 years ago aircraft were propelled by reciprocating engines spinning large bits of wood or metal in the air.


You get the idea I think.



As for aliens... well I believe it was Stephen Hawking who said we should be very careful. Any alien civilisation that has the technology to travel to us would be far, far more technologically advanced than our own. Now consider what happened in our own species' history whenever an advanced civilisation came into contact with a less advanced one...

[DaVinci]

To all the people who say the universe is just too big for any civilisations to make contact:

3,000 years ago we thought thunder was made by angry gods living on top of a mountain in Greece.

500 years ago we thought the world was flat.

400 years ago we thought everything in the solar system orbited the Earth.

200 years ago the fastest we could travel was by horseback.

150 years ago the idea of heavier than air flight was a pipedream

100 years ago we thought the Milky Way was the universe and had no notion of galaxies.

80 years ago we believed supersonic flight was impossible and the idea of space flight was the mad dreams of fanciful eccentrics.

70 years ago aircraft were propelled by reciprocating engines spinning large bits of wood or metal in the air.


You get the idea I think.



As for aliens... well I believe it was Stephen Hawking who said we should be very careful. Any alien civilisation that has the technology to travel to us would be far, far more technologically advanced than our own. Now consider what happened in our own species' history whenever an advanced civilisation came into contact with a less advanced one...

Seconded.

But, Probability of Alien Invasion? is pure speculation, it can happen every day or never.
Imo. merely waste of time to think about it, especially as the reality on this earth is much more concerning.
And ... a more evident math-option is to think (care) about the probability of (a) comet collision(s) with the earth.

All in all in this relation, and also for the good entertainment, i recommend to read Stanislaw Lem's novels, but especially his short-stories.

[Armatus]

The probability that life exists in the universe is so high that it is foregone conclusion. Probability also suggests that life is fairly abundant throughout the universe.

So what's the probability?

The probability that intelligent life exist is also given, but space faring civilizations are probably fairly small compared to the abundance of life in general.

How do you quantify fairly small?

The probability that space faring civilizations making contact with one another is so incredibly remote due to the huge distances between star systems that the premise of aliens invading earth is pretty laughable.

What math did you use to determine laugh-ability?

Seriously space is mind bogglingly huge, and for an alien race to locate us in the first place would be a huge feat, but to devote the resources to get here and invade would not only be ludicrous but futile.

Under what terms is it futile? Our own?

We do not have anything worth taking that can not easily be found elsewhere. If they wanted to study us they would likely just send mechanical probes to do so. If they wanted to destroy us they would just send a bio engineered virus/plague.

So what's the probability of that happening in your book?

....so why worry about something you have no control over?

Because I am interested in the probability.

well, since everything is really just "probably", the closest thing to being mathematical about it is add to the drake equation factors representing the ability and willingness to travel outside their solar system, to make contact, and to be hostile. Bearing in mind most of the drake equation is made up of variables for which we don't currently have data the answer at the end of the day is still "maybe".

I understand there are unknown variables, I was just wondering if anyone has taken the Drake equation a step further to put a number on the possibility of this ever happening to us in our time (by time I mean at any point in our potential length of existence.

The chance of me winning the Mega Millions is currently zero. If I buy a ticket it will be 1 in 184,000,000.

damnit I knew there was something I forgot to do on the way home tonight..

What if we do come into contact with aliens but find out that their human, a small worm hole appears 30,000 years ago somewhere in europe/west asia for the first true humans the homo sapiens sapiens. A few hundererd enter and are teleported in effect to an earth like planet of the same size far far way. For some reason their techological advance is far more rapid than ours and they already have attained god hood, they no longer die from old age due to advanced nano technology that constantly repair their cells and have FTL ships and colonized their own quadrant of the galaxy with a population of quadrillions.
However they have always wondered what their true origins were since there were no fossil records of them on their home planet older than 30,000 years.
And one day they stumble upon the Pioneer plaques stunned to find out that the alien sattelite is in fact human made.
So they decide to visit us first landing in the sea of tranquility and finding this:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Impressed they decide to visit Earth itself...

The makings of a Sci-fi novel (or perhaps you were quoting from one?) that's a hella big image though.