Iraq Army taking over.

[Hub'ite]

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - An Iraqi army division has taken over from U.S. forces in patrolling an area in Anbar province, the U.S. military said on Tuesday, the first transfer on that level in the western heartland of the Sunni Arab insurgency. The 1st Iraqi Army Division officially assumed control of territory near the town of Habbaniya on June 2, between the towns of Ramadi and Falluja, it said in a statement.

Source

Seems like the Iraqi Army is finally taking on some responsibility. But do you think they can hold out by themselves? How long will it take for Iraq to completely take care of itself?

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said after he took office on May 20 that his army and police, now numbering about 255,000, could take over security across the country by the end of next year.

[Richard the Lionheart]

But do you think they can hold out by themselves? How long will it take for Iraq to completely take care of itself?

In order to answer that question, you have to ask another question:

Will the insurgency continue to exist, even after the departure of U.S. troops?

[Blaven]

Will the insurgency continue to exist, even after the departure of U.S. troops?

I think yes. What's going to be interesting is how the Iraqi government deals with it. If this were 20, 30, or 40 years ago the US would've already installed its puppet, and let them deal with insurgents as ruthlessly and violently as possible. Now, we could never get away with that. However, when we leave, the Iraqis will still be funded by the US and their security forces will be trained by us. I expect that they'll use methods that go against some Geneva Convention rules, but I think insurgency will eventually die off within a few years.

Or it could just be like Israel and Palestine. That's always the fun part; you never really know what's going to happen.

[Last Roman]

In order to answer that question, you have to ask another question:

Will the insurgency continue to exist, even after the departure of U.S. troops?

God, I hope not

[Tiwaz]

Insurgency can only die if people are satisfied with their goverment. And if goverment fails to make clear difference to USA and rest of invading nations they will be perceived as puppets, and very few are happy with puppet regime.

So either we see goverment which takes very hard line on everything from "coalition" or we see civil war. We most likely see civil war anyway. You just cannot go and say "behave" and expect people with centuries of hatred to be friends.

[IamthePope]

Source

Seems like the Iraqi Army is finally taking on some responsibility. But do you think they can hold out by themselves? How long will it take for Iraq to completely take care of itself?

I expect that the Iraqi Army will continue to take control of American occupied areas as planned and the turnover of authority will be as successful as it has been. As long as the United states continues to support our allies in Iraq, I can't see us failing.

Well, seems like the Iraq War turned out pretty good after all

[Red Harvest]

Well, seems like the Iraq War turned out pretty good after all

If you ignore the loss of credibility, over 20,000 casualties, human rights scandals, $500 billion dollars in expenditures, the increase in terrorist threat, etc. For those of us actually residing on Earth in the real Universe it doesn't look so good.

You probably missed the headline that Baghdad morgue has processed 1,200 victims a month for the first five months of this year. Strange metric you have for success...

[conon394]

The fact that the Iraqi Army is now starting to take over from the US is a poke in the eye for the insurgents which I feel will in the short term will increase attacks rather then reduce them. On the flip side of the coin if the Iraqi army is 3/4 competent and well lead by people who want to make a difference the insurgents will over time either go home (as many are foreign) or will hold talks with the government as to how they see their role in the new Iraq similar to how the IRA/Sien Fein relationship in N.Ireland.

That seems like a bit of wishful thinking. Aside from that the fact that many of the nominally ‘effective’ Iraq army are in fact often Peshmurga with little if any actualities loyalty to the government of Green Zone; there is the problem that as far as I tell the Iraq army is not really designed to ever take over. The US seems to be essentially training a large number of light infantry battalions that act as adjuncts to the US military, not an army. I haven’t read or seen much in the way of Iraq support units, armor, transport, aviation, logistics, etc. All in all the goal seems to merely to slap together an Iraq force to take over foot patrols so the US troops can withdrawal to the their bases and limit their involvement to bombing and other air support.

Take a look at the latest DOD “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq” report. The number of Iraqi units operating on their own has actually declined, the overall increase in Iraqi operations was created by an increase in US ‘enabled’ Iraqi units. With the US dug into its mega-bases, aircraft overhead, and the nominal Iraq army enabled by US troops I have a hard time thinking anyone is going to be fooled about who is still in charge, hang up their IED’s and go back to the farm…

[Virgil]

nice post red. I have to agree with red on this issue as well. Cannot and probably will not ever see the iraq invasion has a success. Simply too many things have gone wrong.

[Freddie]

nice post red. I have to agree with red on this issue as well. Cannot and probably will not ever see the iraq invasion has a success. Simply too many things have gone wrong.

You say that now but you might look at it differently in 30 years time. History will be the ultimate judge on whether the Iraqi invasion was worth it or not.

The fact that the Iraqi Army is now starting to take over from the US is a poke in the eye for the insurgents which I feel will in the short term will increase attacks rather then reduce them. On the flip side of the coin if the Iraqi army is 3/4 competent and well lead by people who want to make a difference the insurgents will over time either go home (as many are foreign) or will hold talks with the government as to how they see their role in the new Iraq similar to how the IRA/Sien Fein relationship in N.Ireland.

If this Iraqi army works out I would how long it will be before the bulk (there will always be an American base their even if its just for training purposes for Desert warfare) of the Allied forces can leave Iraq for good?

[Removed_user_012521]

I think that if the Iraqis tale over the insurgency will die. What base will they have to fight on? The US is gone and Iraqis are governing themselves, if there sensless violence continues they will loose support.

[Freddie]

I think that if the Iraqis tale over the insurgency will die. What base will they have to fight on? The US is gone and Iraqis are governing themselves, if there sensless violence continues they will loose support.

Who will lose support the Iraqi government? Not likely in fact if anything they are more likly to rally to protect their country as they know (from bitter experiacne mind) what will happen if they let the insurgents take over or win.

[lentonius]

The U.S army isnt exactly controling iraq, its merely preventing utter chaos. We (meaning Bush and Blair) have made a terrible mistake in invading Iraq, be it a good cause or not, because we have gotten ourselves into a real bad situation.

I thought that Saddam needed to be taken down, he wasnt a threat, i dont think, but i know he was a tyrant who needed to be gotten rid of. However, now, can anybody justify that Iraq is any better now than under dictatorship?

Really, I do not beleive that the Iraqi army could handle the take-over well at all, i think a foreign 'peace-keeping' force, whatever you wish to call them, but i beleive that the foreign influence of the occupation of Iraq is really, the only thing preventing a full-blown civil war.

The insurgents will not stop, they will probably get worse due to the decrease in military control, the insurgents will cause terror until there is civil war, only through something like a civil war can another dictator emerge like suddam, and that is ultimately what the insurgents are looking for.

[Tiwaz]

I think that if the Iraqis tale over the insurgency will die. What base will they have to fight on? The US is gone and Iraqis are governing themselves, if there sensless violence continues they will loose support.

Sunnis will not accept dominance of shias and kurds over them. So they will not support goverment. Shias and kurds want to keep sunnis down, and most likely shias have ambitions for kurds too if they manage to solidify their grip on the nation.

Iraqi goverment simply does not have support to actually have any meaning. And that support dwindles even more every time USA or other occupier just ignores them or in other way shows how little iraqi goverment actually matters.

And as different groups direct their violence in different targets (sunnis aim shias and vice versa) they do not actually lose support.

I think this is good opportunity to use that sheepdog/wolf analogy.

For shias, shia militants/insurgents are sheepdogs fighting sunni wolves (sunni militants/insurgents) to protect shias.

For sunnis, sunni militants/insurgents are sheepdogs fighting shia wolves (shia militants/insurgents) to protect sunnis.

Both sides support their own "sheepdogs".

[Farnan]

Pushmanga = Kurdish Militia. They are loyal to the Iraqi Government, partly because they need the Iraqi Government and the Iraqi Government needs them.

[conon394]

I don’t think so. The Kurdish Peshmurga's loyalty is to the KDP and the PUK. The Iraqi army units they serve in are by in large simply re-badged Kurdish units under re-badged officers. I seriously doubt any Kurdish unit would even cross the street on an order form Nouri al-Maliki if was not seconded by a Kurdish commander of either of the Kurdish ruling parties.

[Farnan]

I don’t think so. The Kurdish Peshmurga's loyalty is to the KDP and the PUK. The Iraqi army units they serve in are by in large simply re-badged Kurdish units under re-badged officers. I seriously doubt any Kurdish unit would even cross the street on an order form Nouri al-Maliki if was not seconded by a Kurdish commander of either of the Kurdish ruling parties.

Actually, they wouldn't rebadge Kurdish units because the Pushmanga is a legal militia (the only one). Also, if there is a Civil War the Kurds have the most to lose, and the current Iraqi governement is kind to the Kurds. The Kurdish Pushmanga is actually begging to be let to fight the Insurgents.

[conon394]

Except for the Badr Militias, the Mahdi Army, etc.

if there is a Civil War the Kurds have the most to lose, and the current Iraqi governement is kind to the Kurds

Rather is completely powerless to bother the Kurds. The fact that Kurdistan is largely peaceful (in the context of Iraq) demonstrates that the Kurdish government can do something the Iraqi one cannot maintain order and suppress the insurgency. So there is a civil war (and ignoring the ongoing one) which units is the government going to use against the Kurds and how is it going to get them to Kurdistan?

Here is a story from Knight Ridder, a couple of months old, but I've seen nothing since then to contradict the basic point: Iraqi army units in and near Kurdistan are almost entirly re-skins of Peshmurga units commanded by Kurdish officers who owe their loyalty to the Kurdish government.


http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwash...printstory.jsp

The Kurdish Pushmanga is actually begging to be let to fight the Insurgents.

Quite right, but where Basra or Bagdad? Not likely, now maybe Kirkuk and Mosul yup. Last time I checked they are still the police in Mosul since the Iraqi government forces largely disintegrated there almost a year ago.

[Red Harvest]

Rather is completely powerless to bother the Kurds. The fact that Kurdistan is largely peaceful (in the context of Iraq) demonstrates that the Kurdish government can do something the Iraqi one cannot maintain order and suppress the insurgency. So there is a civil war (and ignoring the ongoing one) which units is the government going to use against the Kurds and how is it going to get them to Kurdistan?

Here is a story from Knight Ridder, a couple of months old, but I've seen nothing since then to contradict the basic point: Iraqi army units in and near Kurdistan are almost entirly re-skins of Peshmurga units commanded by Kurdish officers who owe their loyalty to the Kurdish government.

The Kurdish example is why I think dividing the nation up and giving each its own control was the answer. (It was obvious before the war.) If the local groups can maintain the peace and gain control, they can prevent insurgents. Insurgents hurt the cause of rebuilding in *their own areas.* This gives those in local control a vested interest in preventing them from arising in the first place. As long as locals are working against their own problem elements, the interfaction animosity is at a low enough level to work deals.

Lack of security and a power vacuum is what has let the insurgency thrive.

Establishing a federal govt. might work once local control is established. But the local control is needed to get strong players involved and interested in keeping a peace through central govt. That local control really hasn't happened. If/when it happens now the bloodshed that preceded it is going to lead to sharper division of ethnicity/religion.

The irony is that Sunni's have slit their own throats. Their best chance was in cutting a good deal while the U.S. was present, but they were not interested. When we leave and they have no deal, they are going to be crushed...and there won't be any U.S. interest in helping them out of their self-induced trauma.

[Farnan]

The Badr Militias and the Mahdi Army are illegal militias, they are just tolerated for now...

Also Kurdistan is as peaceful as Great Britain. There has not been any successful terrorist attacks that I know of. The thing the Kurds need the Iraqi government for is it keeps Turkey from attacking them.

The Kurdish Pushmanga are not in Baghdad only because they aren't allowed by the Iraqi Government to go there.

I'm all for the Pushmanga, they've been loyal allies from day one. They fought besides 82nd Airborne troops during the invasion and continue to fight insurgents when they can.

Edit: About the article it sounds bad, but such a battle would only occur should a civil war occur, they won't do it if Iraq becomes stable.