Chance Roll Calculations

[stratfiend]

I have a question concerning how the game deals with chance roll calculations, and particularly how they are dealt with in terms of save files. On numerous occasions I've noticed that chance rolls seem to be set in stone regardless of reloads. For example, just now I had a new Assassin I was trying to get trained up by killing off Rebel Captains. His chance of success was 48%. Failed and died. I then proceeded to reload and try again over 20 times and he still died every single time. I even tried throwing variables into the mix such as moving him different, moving other units first, etc. I've also had numerous times where I would lose multiple Assassins on the same turn even though they all had a 95% chance of success.

What's the deal?

[Adamat]

The game uses an RNG(Random Number Generator) for chance rolls. Every turn they make sets like 35 82 64 29 (all random) and every time you use a chance thing like assassination, the computer takes for example (35+82)\2 so it gets the average. If the chance is lower than this number, you fail. If higher you succeed. So if you want your assassin to have success, you need to get another chance roll before your assassin, or you need to proceed to next turn. The RNG will reload again then i think.
I do not know if i'm completely right, but it works this way for a large proportion.

[Sitalkes]

I have had the same experience however you can get even a 5% chance to work (after lots of attempts) if you try some other chance event such as a siege or a spy attempt - just something more significant than moving things around - then try your assasination attempt again. Otherwise the result is fixed and you can't change it. Also can help if you completely reload the game rather than just reload the game file.

[eXistenZ]

like said, move some things around, then try to assassinate/acquire/infiltrate/denounce, and you will have a different result

[NobleNick]

IIRC the chances are set, and tables constructed at the start of the turn. That table is saved with your game. So you can not get a different result by going back to your save file. The table is set up with random numbers; but, once created, is very deterministic: you cannot get a different result by re-running the experiment.

One post says to re-load and then try other things before retrying your move of interest. Might work; but I don't know.

[John Doe]

The number change at the first reload, and stays the same afterward.

Save your game and try, if it fails reload and try again, you may succed, if you don't then the number stays the same and you'll fail for ever. You need then to change the number as explained before (a diplomatic exchange works as well as an assassination or spying mission)