"U.S. does not believe Iran is trying to build nuclear bomb"

[PointOfViewGun]

U.S. does not believe Iran is trying to build nuclear bomb

As U.S. and Israeli officials talk publicly about the prospect of a military strike against Iran's nuclear program, one fact is often overlooked: U.S. intelligence agencies don't believe Iran is actively trying to build an atomic bomb.

A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view, originally made in 2007. Both reports, known as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003.

The most recent report, which represents the consensus of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, indicates that Iran is pursuing research that could put it in a position to build a weapon, but that it has not sought to do so.

Although Iran continues to enrich uranium at low levels, U.S. officials say they have not seen evidence that has caused them to significantly revise that judgment. Senior U.S. officials say Israel does not dispute the basic intelligence or analysis.

This reminds me of the Six Day War where it's religiously claimed that Arabs were preparing for an attack while in fact both intelligences of Israel and U.S. told that it was not the case. The reports are not exactly new but they are relevant and the Director of the National Intelligence seems to still have the same verdict.

You guys know how much I love polls, so participate: Do you believe Iran is trying to develop a nuclear warhead?

Please vote.

[Col. Tartleton]

Oh it's almost certain Iran isn't. But if we keep sanctioning them they will consider it. Then we invade.

[Nevins]

This may be a semantical issue but the poll is flawed. The article states that US intelligence does not believe that the Iranians are actively building a bomb, but that does not mean that they are not developing the technology to do so. From the article:

The most recent report, which represents the consensus of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, indicates that Iran is pursuing research that could put it in a position to build a weapon, but that it has not sought to do so.

So they are not actively assembling weapons, but they are pursuing research that leads to nuclear weapons. Take it as you will.

[PointOfViewGun]

This may be a semantical issue but the poll is flawed. The article states that US intelligence does not believe that the Iranians are actively building a bomb, but that does not mean that they are not developing the technology to do so. From the article:

So they are not actively assembling weapons, but they are pursuing research that leads to nuclear weapons. Take it as you will.

Not really. Whether you're gonna piss or you have to go to the toilet. Just because you go to the toilet doesn't mean you're trying to . I don't see how the poll is flawed. I couldn't be anymore plain.

[Lebron James]

Not really. Whether you're gonna piss or you have to go to the toilet. Just because you go to the toilet doesn't mean you're trying to . I don't see how the poll is flawed. I couldn't be anymore plain.

Oh please.. If Iran's nuclear program is truly for 'peaceful purposes,' then why won't they allow inspections?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17122738

[PointOfViewGun]

Oh please.. If Iran's nuclear program is truly for 'peaceful purposes,' then why won't they allow inspections?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17122738

Would U.S. allow inspectors to visit Area 51?

[Heinz Guderian]

Oh please.. If Iran's nuclear program is truly for 'peaceful purposes,' then why won't they allow inspections?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17122738

Allegedly [2] the site was for producing HMX, an explosive normally used in conventional high explosive warheads, but is also a key component in non-nuclear "lenses" to trigger nuclear implosion devices. Although under the NPT rules Iran is not required to allow inspectors into its military bases, on January 13, 2005, IAEA inspectors were allowed partial access to the Parchin military base as a confidence building measure. [3] The IAEA’s February 2006 report [4] notes that "The Agency did not observe any unusual activities in the buildings visited, and the results of the analysis of environmental samples did not indicate the presence of nuclear material at those locations." Visual inspection showed that sites were not as capable as suggested by satellite imagery. [5]

they dont have to. Just like Russia, China and the US dont have to

[Lebron James]

they dont have to. Just like Russia, China and the US dont have to

Well I think there is something called the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Edit: I stand corrected on NPT rules, but I believe Iran's noncooperation with the IAEA doesn't help their case very much.

[Dr. Croccer]

Oh please.. If Iran's nuclear program is truly for 'peaceful purposes,' then why won't they allow inspections?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17122738

To be honest, when's the last time a country like Russia or the US allowed international inspections of their nuclear program?

[Col. Tartleton]

This may be a semantical issue but the poll is flawed. The article states that US intelligence does not believe that the Iranians are actively building a bomb, but that does not mean that they are not developing the technology to do so. From the article:



So they are not actively assembling weapons, but they are pursuing research that leads to nuclear weapons. Take it as you will.

Yeah but furthering science is furthering science. For all we know the Iranians will be the first to develop a proper fusion reactor...

[Heinz Guderian]

This may be a semantical issue but the poll is flawed. The article states that US intelligence does not believe that the Iranians are actively building a bomb, but that does not mean that they are not developing the technology to do so. From the article:



So they are not actively assembling weapons, but they are pursuing research that leads to nuclear weapons. Take it as you will.

It just puts it alongside the other 30+ countries that have developed nuclear infrastructure in terms of capability. Germany for example has never "pursued" nuclear weapons, but it could get one together within about 9 months if they need to because it has the requisite tech and expertise. Then we have the argument that Germany isnt a "mad theocracy" and Iran is crazy. Which has been debunked by JCOS Dempsey, several serving US Generals, Head of Mossad and two former Heads of Mossad. To name a few.

[Nevins]

Not really. Whether you're gonna piss or you have to go to the toilet. Just because you go to the toilet doesn't mean you're trying to . I don't see how the poll is flawed. I couldn't be anymore plain.

Except if the world is worried about you building a toilet, you don't start drawing up plans for a toilet and then insisting that you have no desire to make a toilet. Not justifying either countries position, merely clarifying.

It just puts it alongside the other 30+ countries that have developed nuclear infrastructure in terms of capability. Germany for example has never "pursued" nuclear weapons, but it could get one together within about 9 months if they need to because it has the requisite tech and expertise. Then we have the argument that Germany isnt a "mad theocracy" and Iran is crazy. Which has been debunked by JCOS Dempsey, several serving US Generals, Head of Mossad and two former Heads of Mossad. To name a few.

Look, both of you are reading far too much in to what I posted. I am merely pointing out that the poll options seem to not fit the thread because all they mention is developing a nuclear warhead, not whether Iran has the intention to physically build a warhead, which is what both the article and thread seem to be focusing on.

[Heinz Guderian]

Could be the case if we weren't talking about Iran which has very bad relations and does not even acknowledge the existence of another state which happens to also have nuclear weapons.

It has bad relations with the US, Israel and now Britain and France. It has decent relations with pretty much everyone else. Some Arab royals might not like them since they are seen as a threat to their palaces and mercedes. But last week Iranian navy ships docked and resupplied in Saudi Arabia's Jeddah port.

[Manuel I Komnenos]

This may be a semantical issue but the poll is flawed. The article states that US intelligence does not believe that the Iranians are actively building a bomb, but that does not mean that they are not developing the technology to do so. From the article:



So they are not actively assembling weapons, but they are pursuing research that leads to nuclear weapons. Take it as you will.

This.

[AqD]

So they are not actively assembling weapons, but they are pursuing research that leads to nuclear weapons. Take it as you will.

Everyone is doing research that would lead to the ultimate weapon that would blow up the entire earth. What's the point??

[Primo]

So they are not actively assembling weapons, but they are pursuing research that leads to nuclear weapons. Take it as you will.

They are pursuing research in medicine, too. Does that mean they want to create a super-virus?

According to the logic of all the haters of the Iran around here, we should stop them from researching medicine, too, and maybe just bomb it for trying to get the "super-virus".

[Vanoi]

They are pursuing research in medicine, too. Does that mean they want to create a super-virus?

According to the logic of all the haters of the Iran around here, we should stop them from researching medicine, too, and maybe just bomb it for trying to get the "super-virus".

No, thats just your logic. You do realize the research needed to build nuclear weapons is different than research for nuclear power?

[Primo]

No, thats just your logic. You do realize the research needed to build nuclear weapons is different than research for nuclear power?

Well, since I have learned alot about this topic - source your claim, it is wrong. A nuclear reactor is basically a nuclear bomb with additional neutron poises and moderators to stop a chain reaction and to control it, and the technic required to harvest energy from it. Oh, and it is - of course - stational and not in bomb form, if I need to point out the obvious.

And it is absolutely the same logic with medicine. If you research viruses, you will come to the point where you are able to create this super-virus. It is absolutely the same thing.

[Vanoi]

Well, since I have learned alot about this topic - source your claim, it is wrong. A nuclear reactor is basically a nuclear bomb with additional neutron poises and moderators to stop a chain reaction and to control it, and the technic required to harvest energy from it. Oh, and it is - of course - stational and not in bomb form, if I need to point out the obvious.

Except its not. The level of enrichment needed to make a nuclear bomb is way different than needed for nuclear power. Right now Iran is enriching uranium at 20% i think? This is the max legal limit under the NPT. You need to enrich it to something like 95% to make a real nuclear weapon.

And it is absolutely the same logic with medicine. If you research viruses, you will come to the point where you are able to create this super-virus. It is absolutely the same thing.

No. Just because you research viruses it doesn't mean you will come to a point when to can actually make a super-virus. That requires more than just researching the virus, but modifying it.

[Heinz Guderian]

If you enrich uranium (an inalienable right of every nation of Earth and not against any international law) you can say you are on the way to research nuclear weapons.