This is not the end

[Rolling Thunder]

This is not even the beginning of the end.
But perhaps it may be the end, of the beginning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17109999


Public sector borrowing down. Government budget in surplus. Gentlemen, might it be not premature to call this the first green shoots of an economic spring?

[Denny Crane!]

Depends on Europe, we are seeing fiscal austerity and stability in our own economy paying dividends but we are so tied to Europe they could drag us down next month even further.

It does mean we won't be downgraded in credit terms.

[Heinz Guderian]

I dunno man. A month ago they said the tax receipts for 2010-2011 were the biggest the UK has ever collected (and the first increase year on year since 2007). This year looks set to surpass this record. But this surplus represents January (with the end date to pay your taxes 31st Jan). Alot of people pay their taxes in January (even though you can from Sept) due to leaving it late/accumulating more interest. I paid my taxes 1 day before the deadline. Still, it can only be a good sign.

[Shaun]

Spikes in January are usually a result of a rush of people paying their taxes. This doesn't really affect the millions out of work and without much hope of ever getting work again or the SMEs that cannot get the required capital to grow.

[Claudius Gothicus]

I wouldn't really be that confident up until unemployment goes down at least by one point: Currently it's at 8.4%.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/la...-bulletin.html

[jamson]

As long as the EU reign of terror exists with regulation beyond belief and a idiotic government a economic boom will not happen.

[Sphere]

Indeed ...

Official data on Friday is expected to confirm the economy shrank by 0.2% in the final three months of 2011, and the Bank of England last week said it expected the economy to "zigzag" in and out of growth this year.

The UK the Eurozone, and the EU economy as a whole are flirting with recession. Even the staunchly conservative Wall Street Journal is questioning the approach being taken in Europe.

The Questionable Axiom of Austerity
Austerity Debate a Matter of Degree
UK on Course to beat Borrowing Target. Then What?

Then you have the left wing NY Times which is slightly less reserved in its critisism

Party Like it is 1934!
Europe's Failed Course

IMHO what should be done is while individual nations are undertaking structural budget reforms (which are a good thing), there should be large a EU stimulus fund pumping investment money into R&D, infrastructure etc., especially in nations like Portugal, Greece, Ireland etc. so that this trend of shrinking GDP is stopped before it can become dangerous.

[Adar]

IMHO what should be done is while individual nations are undertaking structural budget reforms (which are a good thing), there should be large a EU stimulus fund pumping investment money into R&D, infrastructure etc., especially in nations like Portugal, Greece, Ireland etc. so that this trend of shrinking GDP is stopped before it can become dangerous.

What's the point of R&D and infrastructure if you produce nothing of value?

Globalization means that R&D is useless unless you also got the means to produce the goods. Otherwise you'll end up with with funding the research while companies then outsource production to other nations.

A good example is Skype which was sold to Ebay for 2 billion euro but only created 29 jobs in Sweden. It wasn't publicly funded but it is a good example of how inventive companies can create great earnings by puting most of the legwork away from high cost nations.

[caratacus]

I feel that the drastic reductions in public spending termed the "austerity measures" will only lead to a retrenchment of the economic gloom that effects Europe and not recovery. Look at the support the US Government gave to the car industry which is now paying dividends by the great bounce back by GM Motors this year. In Europe "It's about the economy stupid" should be the cry of business men and women to their politicians who seemed unable to handle the situation of a rapidly shrinking economy and taxation base.

What is needed is greater support by government in business. When I say business I mean anyone who wants to start up their own company and not some multi national corporation. In Britain most of our major banks were saved by government intervention but the availability of loan finance to small businesses has actually shrunk and stunting growth. How can we raise taxes if we don't help those who want to make money. What is needed is a better partnership between government and business and instead I see an unhealthy partnership with banks, financiers and global corporations, whilst new and small businesses are shut out in the cold, and struggle with a complicated burdensome taxation system and a mire of regulations from the EU.. Where are the tax breaks for small business? The support for research and development initiatives? The training centres to enable youngsters to learn new skills for commerce?. I think the whole governmental system in Europe has failed it's economy and the politicians are not fit for purpose.

[Sphere]

What's the point of R&D and infrastructure if you produce nothing of value?

The articles I posted outline the argument better than I can.

It is just counter-cyclical spending to boost shrinking demand. The goal is to stop the recessionary spiral that parts of Europe are already in and other major parts are heading towards.

Portugal is a microcosm of the fundamental problems in trying to balance a budget with extreme austerity.

Portual's Debt Efforts May be Warning for Greece

Unlike Greece, Portugal is a debtor nation that has done everything that the European Union and the International Monetary Fund have asked it to, in exchange for the 78 billion euro (about $103 billion) bailout Lisbon received last May.

And yet, by the broadest measure of a country’s ability to repay its debts, Portugal is going deeper into the hole.

The ratio of Portugal’s debt to its overall economy, or gross domestic product, was 107 percent when it received the bailout. But the ratio has grown since then, and by next year is expected to reach 118 percent.

That’s not necessarily because Portugal’s overall debt is growing, but because its economy is shrinking. And economists say the same vicious circle could be taking hold elsewhere in Europe.

[jamson]

All of these so called ''rescue packages'' are just silly, its like borrowing £10 from someone then asking the same person for £20 to pay them back.

[Thorn777]

UK has been a primary beneficiary of GIPS money flocking for safe havens. It has eased the pound currency , the bond interests, brings on investment-capital, raises even property values in The City further, and at some point reveals results in tax-returns.

Thank the pseudo Onassis's and that brat Cameron for showing them the way.

[jamson]

UK has been a primary beneficiary of GIPS money flocking for safe havens. It has eased the pound currency , the bond interests, brings on investment-capital, raises even property values in The City further, and at some point reveals results in tax-returns.

Thank the pseudo Onassis's and that brat Cameron for showing them the way.

It wont be safe for long since the French and Germans are trying to push through MORE regulations on the city of London, France is just jealous

[Ahlerich]

It wont be safe for long since the French and Germans are trying to push through MORE regulations on the city of London, France is just jealous

name one regulation

[justicar5]

It wont be safe for long since the French and Germans are trying to push through MORE regulations on the city of London, France is just jealous

Considering the city got us into this in the first place: Bleed them White. They can take there square mile, haul it out to the Arctic and nuke it.

[Vizsla]

Merv ‘the Swerve’ King said our economy would be zig-zagging for a while. I believe it’s a technical economic term.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17041717

Anyway since we’re apparently quoting Churchill today:
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.

We just need to find new countries outside of Europe to sell stuff to. That ship is going down.

[bushbush]

Depends on the growth rate this year. UK, like most European countries, can only grow out of its deficits and debt. Austerity only goes so far. Let's see if the Coalition government's policy has made UK more competitive or not.

[nein]

enjoy the endless cycle of unpayable debt

[General Brittanicus]

This is not even the beginning of the end.
But perhaps it may be the end, of the beginning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17109999


Public sector borrowing down. Government budget in surplus. Gentlemen, might it be not premature to call this the first green shoots of an economic spring?

Well at least it looks like we will be borrowing less overall this year and we may see a reduction in tax levels soon, but until the eurozone crisis is fixed I don't think we will have any cause for celebration.

[Kanaric]

It wont be safe for long since the French and Germans are trying to push through MORE regulations on the city of London, France is just jealous

I thought britain LOVED regulations and limitations of their rights? What's wrong here?