What will happen when the oil runs out?

[Britisocialist]

After watching a BBC docudrama about what could happen in 2016 when there is a lot less oil I began to wonder what will happen when the oil runs out and what we can do to stop that.
Also here is a list of everday items that use oil:
T.V.s
DVDs
computers
Mobile phones(cellphones)
cars
plastic

And many, many more but I can't be bothered to type them all

I'm interested to know what you think

[God]

I think we're all doomed...

2016 though, it's not going to run out that early is it? Says who?

[Evariste]

Here's an interesting article on the subject: http://www.economist.com/displayStor...tory_id=497454

It's my belief that by the time oil runs out, we'll already have a similarly priced equivalent.

[Britisocialist]

According to the BBC it won't have run out that early but there will be a substantial reduction in the amount of oil.
I think we can use wind, solar, or use coal but with scrubbers

[HMMcKamikaze]

Oh its easy to use other forms of energy, but the question is whether or not the big oil companies will help make changes.

[~Alexander~]

a world without oil will be fantastic.
i hope a day, yankees will be like China with some bikes

[wipeout140]

Minor Troll Removed

I don't think there will be a crisis I just think it will get very expensive.

So that is a crisis caused by "PANIC BUYING"

[HMMcKamikaze]

The bikes wont be able hold americans there to fat for bikes, There be like wheres my SUV



So that is a crisis caused by "PANIC BUYING"

nah, we will just have those 3 wheeled bikes that cant tip over.

[Dominicus of Byzantium]

Bikes can hold very heavy people. And for the heaviest? well they can get off their backsides and walk.

[Sétanta]

When oil runs out there will be war. Then the rest of the world will starve while a few countries stay alive. Then they might figure out some alternative source of energy soon enough to save the people in Africa and other places.

The winners will include the US/Canada, the EU, Russia, China, India and a few others.

[greek302]

No, becuase it will go up slowly


And I think there will probably be a decrease in demand as fdar as personal transportation goes.

[Red Harvest]

No, becuase it will go up slowly

On what basis? Have you not watched the rise from $25 to $75? Would you classify a tripling in around 2 years as "slow"? Now what happens if it triples again in 2 years? That would be $225/bbl. I'm not saying that is going to happen, but I do recognize how quickly price rose from what was previously considered a steady level. I think price will have a hard time doubling again for a few years, because I believe the U.S. is heading into a recession, and that the world will follow. (The wild card is China.)

And I think there will probably be a decrease in demand as fdar as personal transportation goes.

Eventually, but it hasn't dropped much with a doubling of price per gallon in the U.S. If demand is so slow to respond (and it is) then price can and will shoot through the roof if the supply imbalance grows.

At some point price will cut demand, because it will force weak hands out of the market. Food production is rather low margin, so farming might take a big hit early on--especially if the crop is switched to corn for fuel instead of food.

[Evariste]

It's also a question of price. As soon as an alternative energy source to oil is found that is price competitive, and is cleaner, there's no doubt that it will be quickly adopted.

[HMMcKamikaze]

Well there has been cheaper ways already. There are certain trees where you can take the seed pods off of them and make bio-diesel fuel. Its rather inexpensive and the seed pods grow back.

[removeduser_426582376423734]

Nuclear energy. Wind turbines. Hydroelectric powerstations.

Nuff said.

[Denny Crane!]

Nuclear energy. Wind turbines. Hydroelectric powerstations.

Nuff said.

The arguements against renewables are detailed here and here

http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showthread.php?t=49771

http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showthread.php?t=48986

We have pretty much done this topic to death. While there won't be a new stone age unless a miraculous technology comes along we are in for an extremely rough time of it.

For further reading google the term "peak oil"


Peter

[removeduser_426582376423734]

From what I know, one wind turbine can power a couple thousand homes per day. A few dozen per county should do the trick. (Thats just England...)

[Denny Crane!]

The point is about green energy is that it uses materials dug up from the ground by oil powered vehicles, made in factories and transported across an oil dependant transportation network. Can transportation change? Well reproducing or retrofitting the worlds 800 million or so cars not to mention all the other machines using oil (agriculture manufacture etc) is unrealistic. Hydrogen has been hailed as the saviour but the cells use silver/platinum and other very scarce materials as far as I am aware.

Oil based agriculture is primarily responsible for the world's population exploding from 1 billion at the middle of the 19th century to 6.3 billion at the turn of the 21st century.

So when oil is no longer commercialy viable or it gets to the point where it is simply unavailable the worlds population should logically drop back to similar levels before oil was first commercial drilled. Sustainable population of the world between 1-2 billion. I'm not intimating this will be an instant occurence over a year but logically it should be the case withstanding major technological advances.

As to wether or not the economy will survive the first death throes of the oil industry, our economies stability depend on growth. A lack of growth means recession. Our economies facing rapid rising oil prices will go into severe recession as every sector will be declining which will soon spiral into depressions.

Gas peak is predicted a decade after oil peak so that will not save us. I love being so optomistic BTW

From a previous arguement.

Wind turbines as a energy source are vastly underused. It will require thousands upon thousands to power domestic energy alone, they are not as powerful as you think. They account for much less than 1% of the worlds green energy production and the same applies for solar because there power generation is pretty weak compared to other forms.

Team up a combination of solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, hydroelectric, biomass and energy efficiency and you see an almost unlimited capacity for generation. It needs to be coupled with a huge energy efficiency drive (which can reduce power usage by up to 40%) and some major technological advances.

Want to do something about it? www.writetothem.com and get a letter off to your local MP demanding a bigger push for green solutions.

It is not going to stop the massive peak oil crisis looming but the more we do now the better we will be able to cope.

Peter

[Bwaho]

Also here is a list of everday items that use oil:
T.V.s
DVDs
computers
Mobile phones(cellphones)
cars
plastic

they are already producing such things with fibre/bio technology.

we wont die out because of lack of oil...people love to be pessimists though

[Red Harvest]

It's misleading to refer to this as "running out." It is really "running short" at an increasing pace each year.

Right now we are at a balance point where supply can usually meet demand, but there are stretches where it cannot. Those stretches have driven a sustained run up in price.

Why does price run up so much? Because demand is not falling substantially as price increases. For example gasoline cost has more than doubled in the U.S. but gasoline use has barely moved overall.

So what can we be reasonably certain will happen as oil use comes in more consistently short of demand:
1. Price of oil will rise rapidly to keep demand in balance with declining supply.
2. A much greater propoportion of world resources will go into paying for oil. This is money shifted from other forms of investment.
3. Alternatives will be utilized, but with lag (higher prices need to be sustained to support the investment...and construction usually takes several years.)
4. CO2 emissions per energy equivalent will rise rapidly--oil sands, shale, and coal all produce much more CO2 per oil equivalent.
5. A global economic slowdown will occur, because economic activity will be constrained by energy supply limitations.