Assad plans to carve out an Alawite State

[Principe Alessandro]

From a original French article translated with google translator and partially improved.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international...e-la-syrie.php

INTERVIEW - Former Syrian Vice President said that the regime is transferring its arms on the coast, to create an Alawite state in northwest.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Former Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam, 73, lives in Paris since he defected in 2005. In November, he created the National Committee to support the Syrian Revolution (NSRF), a movement that would bring together all the factions of the opposition. It calls for several months a Western military intervention in Syria, where he retains many contacts.

LE FIGARO - Are you saying that the regime of Bashar al-Assad is trying to transfer the military equipment of the army to the west, along the Mediterranean, Alawite area?

Abdel Halim Khaddam - Absolutely. Bashar and his clan have first distributed guns and machine guns in the towns and villages inhabited by their fellow Alawites. For a month, they also began to transfer the heavy weapons of the army, by road to the coast, hiding in the hills and heights. 8% of the Syrians are Alawite, even if not all the Alawites support Bashar al-Assad. Alawite areas begin from the south-west of Homs and via Hama, to the city of Latakia on the coast.

What kind of weapons are they?

Missiles and strategic weapons have already been fully transferred. Tanks and artillery, only partly because the regime needs to keep the repression against demonstrators in the cities. Bashar has also planned to send his fighters on the airport of Latakia.

What is the purpose of the plan?

The Syrian president has changed tactics. For a long time he tried to invade the city and block the insurgents. But it did not work. It therefore applies today another plan, which aims to create a religious war, a sectarian war. I know that a month ago, he told one of his Lebanese accomplices that he intends to create an Alawite State from which he could lead a sectarian war. It is now ready to create its own republic. He plans to settle in Latakia. I am sure that there are enough underground shelters where he and his clan could withdraw.

Do you think that Bashar Assad plays on the partition of Syria?

Yes. He unsuccessfully used force against the Syrian people. He does not want to go and suffer the same fate as Gaddafi, today's political discourse, that of a man at bay, like to that of the former Libyan president. He does not flee or leave. He refused all opportunities that were offered by the Arab League. The repression failed, he is left only with the choice to implement its plan of destabilization and partition of Syria, which would destroy the country.

Do you think this plan will succeed?

No, because the Syrian population will continue to fight for the unity and territorial integrity. I think this project will eventually hasten its end. But it is still very dangerous for Syria. As to defeat the score, some insurgents will not hesitate to call on all the radical Islamic world. Terrorists are therefore likely to enter the game Syrian. The Arab world is characterized by ethnic and religious pluralism. The instability is therefore likely to spread throughout the region.

Why the Free Syrian Army doesn't try to block the transfer of military convoys to the Alawite areas?

Because the Free Army doesn't control all regions. And because the roads are controlled by the regular army.

Seems that Assad is playing the game of the sectarian war ahead of the times so maybe the sectarian war could erupt even before its fall.

[sumskilz]

If the Alawite's are his only real support base, then he probably can't hold out forever considering they are still only a small percentage of the population, but the strategy can buy him time and puts him in a position to retreat into Lebanon if his Hezbollah friends will have him.

[Principe Alessandro]

If the Alawite's are his only real support base, then he probably can't hold out forever considering they are still only a small percentage of the population, but the strategy can buy him time and puts him in a position to retreat into Lebanon if his Hezbollah friends will have him.

I think that he is supported also by the Christians and the Druze and the Kurds may support an eventual partition of Syria.

[PointOfViewGun]

I think that he is supported also by the Christians and the Druze and the Kurds may support an eventual partition of Syria.

I don't know about the Christians and the Druze but the Kurds wouldn't help him. They already fear being targeted by him an there is the fact that PKK is helping Assad against Turkey and the Kurds in Syria who get involved in the protest.

[MathiasOfAthens]

Never heard of the source so its prob .

[Principe Alessandro]

Never heard of the source so its prob .

Is the second-largest French daily newspaper.

[sumskilz]

Is the second-largest French daily newspaper.

He's never heard of Le Parisien or Le Monde either, but I suspect he may be joking.

[il padrino]

Never heard of the source so its prob .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Figaro

[MathiasOfAthens]

I read Le Monde so...

[hellheaven1987]

Assad may just create a Kurdishstan too to mess everyone...

[MathiasOfAthens]

Assad may just create a Kurdishstan too to mess everyone...

Not if Iran has anything to say about that... Turkey would be pissed off the most though but they dont have any influence in Syria.

The source defected in 2005... thats a long time to be away so how does he really know what Assad is thinking?

[Principe Alessandro]

Not if Iran has anything to say about that... Turkey would be pissed off the most though but they dont have any influence in Syria.

The source defected in 2005... thats a long time to be away so how does he really know what Assad is thinking?

Well the Kurds are strangely calm until now, I have read a Turkish article (in english) about the possibility of Assad using the Kurds as a buffer between him and a possible Turkish intervention. Don't know how much of this article is the truth but the eventuality of Syria breaking in micro states could be seen as dangerous for some neighbors that don't want to face the consequences.

[hellheaven1987]

Not if Iran has anything to say about that... Turkey would be pissed off the most though but they dont have any influence in Syria.

Iran probably has little to say about this, since Iranian government probably is most confident to deal Kurdish problem among all countries that have significant Kurdish population. If Assad truly creates Kurdishstan the first country that would go nut is Iraq (the Kurdish regions are recently falling into chaos; BBC has some good articles about the mess), then follows by Turkey.

[MathiasOfAthens]

Well the Kurds are strangely calm until now, I have read a Turkish article (in english) about the possibility of Assad using the Kurds as a buffer between him and a possible Turkish intervention. Don't know how much of this article is the truth but the eventuality of Syria breaking in micro states could be seen as dangerous for some neighbors that don't want to face the consequences.

Syria breaking up would be beneficially-neutral to a few states. Iran would lose a vassal like state in the Middle-East but generally a few states would welcome a weaker Syria, notably Lebanon and Israel. Jordan would be neutral but Iraq might be troubled by potential kurdish upstarts.

However, I cant imagine why Assad would willingly break up his state, that doesnt seem likely, though I believe it would be for the best. The Imperial powers should have broken these states up from the get-go but unified states were easier to control.

We might be able to see a potential Assyrian state.

Iran probably has little to say about this, since Iranian government probably is most confident to deal Kurdish problem among all countries that have significant Kurdish population. If Assad truly creates Kurdishstan the first country that would go nut is Iraq (the Kurdish regions are recently falling into chaos; BBC has some good articles about the mess), then follows by Turkey.

Iran generally has a peaceful Kurdish situation, unlike Turkey, so I agree with you to a point, however, it is much suspected that Iran has been supplying Assad and could influence him toward one way or the other.

Iraq would definitely be upset but its turkey that has the most to lose since the PKK use Iraq as a launching point they would use Kurdistan in Syria as another... Turkey has by far the largest Kurdish population.

[Condottiere 40K]

Makes sense; Assad's support base are a lot saner than Gaddafi's, and if I were him, I would have created a redoubt with strategically placed bunkers as soon as I realized which way the wind was blowing. Any heavy weaponry that they have to abandon would probably be destroyed, and I can see the other minorities backing him in the face of Sunnis.

[Exarch]

i know this strategy well; in my campaigns when i'm being royally ed, i go exodus and migrate to somewhere easily defensible like the Channel islands

[magpie]

What is wrong with Assad?
His Father showed him how to deal with malcontents.
The Arab league would not have dared to poke their noses into Syrian affairs in his day.
Maybe Assad is just too nice a person for the cut and thrust of Middle East politic,s.

[Kitsunegari]

What is wrong with Assad?
His Father showed him how to deal with malcontents.
The Arab league would not have dared to poke their noses into Syrian affairs in his day.
Maybe Assad is just too nice a person for the cut and thrust of Middle East politic,s.

Bashar has been rightly compared with Fredo Corleone

[6644kp]

If this were to happen it could set a dangerous example for the entire near east.
Kurds in Iraq/Iran/Turkey.
Shia/Sunni divide in Iraq.
Iran would lose 50% of its population. Kurds, Baloch, Arabs, Azeris and other Turkic peoples.
Afghanistan would lose 60% of its population. Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazara, Turkmen etc

[white-wolf]

An Alewite state (A Nusayri state would be more proper name) is not much realistic. Thougt at past Nusayries resided at mountain areas of Latakia region, now they are at every city of Syria. Also, I do not think other peoples of Syria would agree with a partition. Remember that the Arab nationalism first created at Damascus, Syria. Syrians have very strong sense of "Syrianism". About Kurds, they are mostly at north-eastern parts of Syria, very near to Turkish and Iraqi border. They are not very populus, half a million. They became very recently, after the Arab spring, citizens of Syria. Assad is trying to gain their favor.