Upcoming Hellenic Elections - 2012

[Manuel I Komnenos]

For most people monitoring the Greek situation, it's already known that the Former P.M. of Greece, George Papandreou resigned, after hard pressure, following his attempt to hold a referendum. Immediately after his resignation, three parties, that of the elected PASOK, ND (the opposition) and LAOS decided to create a coalition government and placed a banker, Mr. Papadimos as P.M. of Greece. Of course, the immediate effect of these actions was that all these parties lost additional votes while the Left parties gained additional ones. The coalition government is entrusted with a series of economic responsibilities which it has to take care of, before holding elections. This is going to happen probably in March.

Parties:

PA.SO.K. (Panhellenic Socialist Movement)
Political Position: Center-Left
Ideology: Social democracy, democratic socialism

N.D. (New Democracy)
Political Position: Center-Right
Ideology: Conservatism, liberal conservatism

K.K.E. (Communist Party of Greece)
Political Position: Far left
Ideology: Communism (Stalinism)

L.A.O.S. (Popular Orthodox Rally)
Political Position: Right-wing
Ideology: National conservatism, social conservatism, right-wing populism

Synaspismos
Political Position: Left-wing
Ideology: Democratic socialism, anti-capitalism, eurocommunism

ΔΗΜ.ΑΡ. (Democratic Left)
Political Position: Center-left
Ideology: social democracy, democratic socialism

Opinion Polls:

As of December 2011.
Conducted by: GPO, Public Issue, Metron Analysis, VPRC respectively.

P: 15.3% 15.5% 17.1% 18.0%
N: 21.5% 30.0% 29.3% 30.5%
K: 10.0% 13.5% 13.6% 13.0%
L: 07.1% 06.0% 09.2% 07.0%
S: 06.1% 14.0% 10.7% 11.0%
D: 06.3% 09.5% 05.9% 08.5%

What we can see here is that PASOK, which was elected with some 42% of the votes before 2 years has lost most of its support. ND on the other side has failed to exploit this situation and its percentages have remained in the same area 22.0-30.0%. LAOS, suffered heavily after it chose to side with the coalition pro-IMF government and it's not expected to rise. KKE, Synaspismos and Democratic Left are currently gaining more than 30% of the votes. That means that if those 3 parties sided together, Greece would become a Leftist, anti-EU, anti-IMF state. Of course, this is highly unlikely as those parties do not seem to like each other. In overall, it seems that ND is the most serious contender in these elections, but it needs some 33% of the votes to get elected, otherwise it will be forced to side with another political party.

I will offer my opinion later.

[hellheaven1987]

So who is crazy enough trying to hold the job of PM of Greece now?

[Thorn777]

^Come on now, being a top politician these days is a great job for any type-cast actor. You get to serve the billion $ interests and all you have to do is delivering allot of rhetoric.

Sure, the "populist" populace will hate you and they prolly will hate you more than other politicians in the past where hated, since you cant pile up more public-debt, but why care?

You are physically well protected by bought and paid bodyguards, drive around in bought and paid luxury vehicles, and residate in bought and paid mansions and appartments. Then after you did your act for a couple of years you get a million $ private job and a big fat 10k a month pension to cover your expenses.

Not bad for just another slick talker.

[Platon]

ND-Pasok-Laos will form a Gov 'to save the country' - thats my best bet if the polls are correct.
Another combination could be Pasok-Synaspismos-Democratic Left, if they get enough combined votes.

Their policies will fail anyway. Greece is completely bankrupt and need a constant flow of new loans to stay alive.

[Manuel I Komnenos]

I would have liked to see a united left-wing government of KKE, Democratic Left and Synaspismos. I'm a center-right supporter, but I feel the rise of communism in Greece is the only way to destroy ND and PASOK and let new parties arise from the center-right and center-left.

[Platon]

KKE can't form a coalition with the other two - they are just too far from eachother. KKE wan't to destroy the whole financial and banking system - remove all foreign military and leave EU immediately. Also they will take all land the othodox church has (or tax them so hard they will be forced to just give it up), and the same with all the other big private land owners.
They will go for a 100% default also without any discussion wich means we are out of any access to markets in the future..
So KKE will be out of any kind of coalition Govt.


But I can see several options of center left - or center right Govt, depending on the results from the elections. Whatever constellation they come up with the policies will be the exact same - the so called Troika will decide all the details..

[Romanos IV]

I think it's too early for such a thread, as elections may not even come in 2012, or they may never come.

But, I have some news for you:http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/ind...771&Itemid=139

New Poll:
Nea Dimokratia (ND) (conservative)- formelry Main Opposition-currently Gov't partner: 30,5%-stable
Demokratiki Aristera (DL) (left wing, pro EU) - not even existant in 2009: 13%-going up
Kouministiko Komma Elladas (KKE) (communist stalinist) -currently Main Opposition: 12,5%-going up
SYRIZA (left wing) - 12,5%-going up
PASOK (formerly democratic socialist, currently neoliberal) - Government: 12%-falling
LAOS (nationalist populist) - government partner: 6%-falling
Ecologist Greens (internationalist, unknown quantity): 3%-barely into parliament
Chrysi Avgi (extremely nationalist): 2,5% - going up
Arma Politwn (former PASOK members, anti-austerity):2,5%-slightly going up

-------------------------

Thoughts?

[Thorn777]

My thoughts are, that its depressing that populations always flock to the other one of two alternatives when things go bad, despite just knowing better.

Isnt ND Calimero's party or what his name is, and that did all the right things to make Greece this vulnerable and become this IMF shock treatment experiment for western countries.

[Platon]

Thats 'Karamanlis' Thorn..

But it's pretty depressing to see how ND get polls like 30%. If they get that as a result in the next elections and are able to form a Govt. then the Greek people really don't deserve any better. They will sell out the country right in front of our eyes!!

[ash874]

what are the prospects for israel greece relations after the election?

[Armenum]

what are the prospects for israel greece relations after the election?

All depends on Turkish-Israeli relations

[ash874]

All depends on Turkish-Israeli relations

not true.
as evidence israel armenia relations have not moved at all

[Armenum]

not true.
as evidence israel armenia relations have not moved at all

That's because Azerbaijan-Israel relations haven't changed. The worse relations got between Turkey and Israel, the better Cyprus/Greece-Israel relations got.

[Manuel I Komnenos]

Thats 'Karamanlis' Thorn..

But it's pretty depressing to see how ND get polls like 30%. If they get that as a result in the next elections and are able to form a Govt. then the Greek people really don't deserve any better. They will sell out the country right in front of our eyes!!

Indeed. I consider it unacceptable for parties like ND and PASOK to get 30% and 12% respectively. In my opinion, PASOK should have normally get 5% of votes and ND something like 12.5%. Of course though, it's obvious that some 40% of the Greek people still live in the past and expect ND and PASOK to hand them a new work.

what are the prospects for israel greece relations after the election?

I can only see them getting better. What's almost sure is that ND will be elected as the new government, possibly with another party backing them up (LAOS which is right-wing) and ND holds a more nationalist agenda than left PASOK. ND had previously promoted close relations with Russia and I expect they will once again embrace this policy. Closer relations with Israel will be surely promoted.

My thoughts are, that its depressing that populations always flock to the other one of two alternatives when things go bad, despite just knowing better.

Isnt ND Calimero's party or what his name is, and that did all the right things to make Greece this vulnerable and become this IMF shock treatment experiment for western countries.

Well, as a neutral viewer, I can only say you are rightly surprised. But from a Greek's viewpoint, 30% is a new low for ND. ND has been unable to draw those people who voted for PASOK and are now deeply disappointed towards itself. Instead, those people choose to side with various left parties. The left currently gets some 40% of the votes which I would say that it's a new record. Unfortunately though, those parties are too divided and are not expected to side with each other in the upcoming elections.

[Armenum]

Which Greek party you think would be most friendly to Armenians and Armenia? (and opposed to Turkish cooperation)?

[Manuel I Komnenos]

Which Greek party you think would be most friendly to Armenians and Armenia? (and opposed to Turkish cooperation)?

I was reading the other day the agenda of each party. LAOS says it's against the entrance of Turkey in the EU. Most left parties are of the idea that 'we have nothing to divide between us and the Turkish citizens, it's the rich that promote distrust among each other.' Democratic Left and SYRIZA support Turkey's entrance in the EU. Obviously PASOK is the most dangerous party concerning the Turkish-Greek relations as it believes everything is fine and sound and there's no reason to worry about anything. Not even about the fact that Greece is afraid to declare an Economic Zone in the Aegean Sea... ND which will be elected has a sound, moderate 'nationalist' policy which promotes relations with other Orthodox Christian states and wants to keep Turkey at bay.

[Armenum]

I was reading the other day the agenda of each party. LAOS says it's against the entrance of Turkey in the EU. Most left parties are of the idea that 'we have nothing to divide between us and the Turkish citizens, it's the rich that promote distrust among each other.' Democratic Left and SYRIZA support Turkey's entrance in the EU. Obviously PASOK is the most dangerous party concerning the Turkish-Greek relations as it believes everything is fine and sound and there's no reason to worry about anything. Not even about the fact that Greece is afraid to declare an Economic Zone in the Aegean Sea... ND which will be elected has a sound, moderate 'nationalist' policy which promotes relations with other Orthodox Christian states and wants to keep Turkey at bay.

I guess it's the nationalist parties that favour our interests the most. Greece and Armenia should have much closer relations in my view, especially in military sphere. Though some of our officers are trained in Greece actually.

[Manuel I Komnenos]

I guess it's the nationalist parties that favour our interests the most. Greece and Armenia should have much closer relations in my view, especially in military sphere. Though some of our officers are trained in Greece actually.

Indeed. Greece and Armenia have a common past and should have been much closer. I, too support such an idea.

Imo, ND is nowadays almost identical to PASOK in its policies (both external and internal). I would call their external policy 'submissive'.

Not really. Under Papandreou, the relations between Greece and Russia were brought back to the level they were in 1919. At least Samaras just visited Russia even though he is not even PM yet. In overall, ND had a fairly successful foreign policy under Karamanlis, arguably the only department where the previous government was successful at all.

[clone]

ιn overall, ND had a fairly successful foreign policy under Karamanlis, arguably the only department where the previous government was successful at all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hX31YT6YCHw
seriously now the reason why we had "good relationships" with rusia during ND rule was ,mostly because putin wanted to anger the americans or because of economic reasons.not because of kostakis charming personality

[Romanos IV]

Imo, ND is nowadays almost identical to PASOK in its policies (both external and internal). I would call their external policy 'submissive'.