China begins to turn against Iran

**DividingSolid** · January 20, 2012, 11:29 AM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...inst-Iran.html

After a visit to the Gulf in which he met the leaders of the states most threatened by Iran's aggressive foreign policy, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, issued Beijing's clearest condemnation yet .
"China adamantly opposes Iran developing and possessing nuclear weapons," he said.

So with Iran losing support from China, how long before Iran's other allies stand ground with them?

**Condottiere 40K** · January 20, 2012, 11:34 AM

But in the meantime, we'll buy up all the oil they have to offer.

**Kanaric** · January 20, 2012, 11:39 AM

I would not call iran a chinese ally lol

**Heathen Hammer** · January 20, 2012, 11:40 AM

If Iran gives China that American spy drone, perhaps China will change sides.

**Kanaric** · January 20, 2012, 11:49 AM

Originally Posted by Broseph Stalin

If Iran gives China that American spy drone, perhaps China will change sides.

I doubt it. Chinese probably already know everything they need about it anyways.

**Heathen Hammer** · January 20, 2012, 11:56 AM

Originally Posted by Kanaric

I doubt it. Chinese probably already know everything they need about it anyways.

Well, they'd need to reduce America's technological advantage over them as much as possible, plu it would give them a foothold in the region.

**bushbush** · January 20, 2012, 11:59 AM

Originally Posted by Broseph Stalin

Well, they'd need to reduce America's technological advantage over them as much as possible, plu it would give them a foothold in the region.

Reverse engineering is actually not as easy as people think. You can buy all sort of technologically advanced stuff from the market but it often takes DECADES for a country to master the technology, create the machines and train the people to replicate the same technology.

On the other hand, you have to note that Wen Jiabao is not in charge of foreign policy in the Chinese leadership. What he says doesn't necessarily mean a change of direction on this matter. China is actually going to enjoy a pretty decent discount for oil price from Iran if all other countries have followed US' suggestion to get oil elsewhere.

**Heathen Hammer** · January 20, 2012, 12:08 PM

Well, there'd be more benefit for China in siding with Iran in this issue, given how US aggressively expands its power in Pacific. Overall, it is good to know that Jiabao does not directly represent Beijing.

**bushbush** · January 20, 2012, 12:21 PM

Originally Posted by Broseph Stalin

Well, there'd be more benefit for China in siding with Iran in this issue, given how US aggressively expands its power in Pacific. Overall, it is good to know that Jiabao does not directly represent Beijing.

Not sure about benefits for China though, depends on which faction for China. Cheap oil will definitely be good for some groups in the regime. But it might also mean worse-off relations with US and EU, which hurt other people in the regime as well. There are definitely a lot infighting in the CCP right now over policy towards Iran. Wen Jiabao is probably the more pro-sanction faction, but he is not in charge of foreign policy so it is hard to know how influential his voice is on this.

**Babur** · January 20, 2012, 01:38 PM

Originally Posted by bushbush

Not sure about benefits for China though, depends on which faction for China. Cheap oil will definitely be good for some groups in the regime. But it might also mean worse-off relations with US and EU, which hurt other people in the regime as well. There are definitely a lot infighting in the CCP right now over policy towards Iran. Wen Jiabao is probably the more pro-sanction faction, but he is not in charge of foreign policy so it is hard to know how influential his voice is on this.

well what about the Princeling faction? what would be their view of this?

**bushbush** · January 20, 2012, 01:42 PM

Originally Posted by Babur

well what about the Princeling faction? what would be their view of this?

Depends on their interests though. Some Princelings might be in the natural resources industry, they might love the cheap oil from Iran. Others with interests in US and EU might not like it. It is hard to know.

China is in the time of leadership transition now (the equivalent of an election year for non-authoritarian countries

). Everyone is fighting for a good position for the next administration, so I can see this issue dragging on for awhile.

**legate** · January 20, 2012, 04:27 PM

This really isnt news and what a BS article to be fair.

China adamantly opposes Iran developing and possessing nuclear weapons

We all know that China and Russia are opposed to Iran building a nuke, just like the rest of the world, its if they are actully building one is the issue, and there is no hard evidence as yet. This appears to be the UK media keeping Iran in the news and the minds of the public.

The telegraph posted an article just days ago claiming Russia and China would stand firm over Iran and oppose any western involvement in the region.

**Kitsunegari** · January 20, 2012, 07:45 PM

I think this is posturing more than anything...

**Armenum** · January 20, 2012, 08:41 PM

I doubt China wants Iran to have nuclear weapons, but it doesn't want to punish Iran like the West is doing. China, Iran, and Russia alliance (at least temporarily) would be a great geopolitical block against the West, especially for Iran.

**Prosaic Visitant** · January 21, 2012, 12:52 AM

Originally Posted by Lord Mov

I doubt China wants Iran to have nuclear weapons, but it doesn't want to punish Iran like the West is doing. China, Iran, and Russia alliance (at least temporarily) would be a great geopolitical block against the West, especially for Iran.

I agree with all of this post; except for the alliance. I mean, does anyone see an Islamic theocracy, an irreligious 'communist' oligarchy and a shaken, nationalist autocracy really bind together for the long term?

I mean, it's just too disparate. Aside from being unWestern, what do the three of them have in common?

**Valiant Champion** · January 21, 2012, 12:57 AM

wat china says and wat it does are two different things. China and russia are both responsible for Iran's progress in nuclear tech and missile tech.

**Armenum** · January 21, 2012, 09:47 AM

Originally Posted by Malzahar

I agree with all of this post; except for the alliance. I mean, does anyone see an Islamic theocracy, an irreligious 'communist' oligarchy and a shaken, nationalist autocracy really bind together for the long term?

I mean, it's just too disparate. Aside from being unWestern, what do the three of them have in common?

Actually Iran and Russia have cooperated rather well in the past. It's called Realpolitik. Iran even for having good relations with Russia was not active in promoting Islamic revolution in Central Asia. On top of that Iran supports Christian Armenia over Shia Muslim Azerbaijan. So Iran can be practical when it has to, and uses ideology when it's convenient.