Syrian revolution thread

[Diglytron]

I dont know for sure ive there is already such an thread, sorry that admins. Feel free to delete or move it than.

So, today was in the news that the Syrian Goverment will alow Journalists to come in Syria, tough we dont know for sure how many is allowed for them... Will they go with an delegation of the Syrian goverment or are they free to travel trough the country speaking with activists.

Damascus 'manoeuvring'
The Arab League's Secretary General, Nabil al-Arabi, told reporters that an advance party led by one of his assistants would travel to Syria in the next two or three days to prepare for the arrival of monitors.
The observers will have a one-month mandate that can be extended by another month if both sides agree.
But the leader of the Syrian National Council, an opposition umbrella group, dismissed the government's decision as "just a ploy".
The BBC's Jim Muir in Beirut says there is much scepticism in activist circles about the government's willingness to implement a peace plan which could result in large parts of the country falling out of its control.
Since mid-November, Syria wavered on whether to agree to the deployment of observers, prompting the Arab League to impose a range of economic sanctions.
In that time, more than 900 civilians have been killed by Syrian security forces, including 80 children and 29 women, according to the LCC.

From the BBC


Beside that they are comming more and more rumors about riots in the Syrian army. There are lots of deserters who now started to fight against the army..
Many deserters are killed trough the army source:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16258387

What you think, will there be a succesvol revolution in Syria or, will Assad stay on his place?

[justicar5]

Thhey mat b heading for civil war. That as always would be messy. (and as it looks like units are changing sides, not one sided.)

[white-wolf]

Thhey mat b heading for civil war. That as always would be messy. (and as it looks like units are changing sides, not one sided.)

It is already a civil war. Just, the scope of this civil war has been getting bigger daily. One side is Al-Assad Clan, minority Alewities and Baath party die-hard members. The other side is majority Sunnies.

There are cities that Assad's troops can not enter currently. Homs is one.

[Diglytron]

Thhey mat b heading for civil war. That as always would be messy. (and as it looks like units are changing sides, not one sided.)

Dont know for sure. Syria is a different country as Lybia.

[m_1512]

Not exactly the kind of Arab spring one might hope for.

[motiv-8]

Not exactly the kind of Arab spring one might hope for.

Neither was the Prague Spring. Neither was 1848. People are so quick to judge without thinking about long-term ramifications.

Syria is a different country as Lybia.

Correct. Syria also has sectarian tensions to go along with tribalism. Open conflict in that country could be even worse. It's tenuous.

[hellheaven1987]

Be honest I am not sure what Arab League would gain if Assad's government been pulled down - I don't believe Saudi Arabia is naive enough to not realize that a democratic Syria would probably ally with Revolutionary Egypt and tries to export revolution into Saudi Arabia.

[alhoon]

I would say that a democratic Saudi Arabia sounds a better place than how I depict Saudi Arabia now.

[Coldfire88]

I would say that a democratic Saudi Arabia sounds a better place than how I depict Saudi Arabia now.

that'd be impossible, I lived in ksa. thats not how they do things, they are a tribal society recently formed into a nation, they love their king. they neither care about nor want democracy.

as for the syrian revolution, I always expected the defectors to be the final deciding factor.. but the dont seem to be able to defeat assads army yet.. since the arab league doesnt want to divert this to the UN security council, and the UN isnt able to form a resolution thanks to Russia, and no western or arab country want to intervene on their own... something has to change in the end..

[hellheaven1987]

something has to change in the end..

Lets hope Revolutionary Egypt would "liberate" Syrians from its brutal government; afterall, Saladin already did it once so Egyptians do have an example to follow.

After that, Israel would be next target to be "liberated" on Egyptians' list.

[Azog 150]

I don't think there is much turning back now. Even if Assad manages to retain power, it will be a very unstable rule at best. All that hatred and anger towards him won't just disappear and with the insurgency growing in number this thing isn't going to end any time soon.

[Bobz]

I don't think there is much turning back now. Even if Assad manages to retain power, it will be a very unstable rule at best. All that hatred and anger towards him won't just disappear and with the insurgency growing in number this thing isn't going to end any time soon.

Assad and the ruling elite really don't have a choice but to carry on the fighting. I don't think there's any chance of the insurgency dying down either, not with the increasing amount of deserters organising as a rebel force now. But they have everything to lose, if the regime backs down it'll be seen as a victory for the opposition - and they couldn't survive even more of the country rebelling, there won't be a place for Assad in any new government.

All signs point to a full scale civil war breaking out now.

[Trey]

There's clearly the potential for even greater conflict than there is now. With the economy continuing to go down the drain, I think that Assad has until the end of the Spring, at most. I see him getting pushed out, or a coup occurring where the Alawis attempt to salvage some of their position in a future government.

[Principe Alessandro]

Syria has sizable religion minorities of Druze, Christians and Shia without forgetting the ethnic minorities like the Kurds.

The ethnic-religious make up could be a destabilizing factor in the long run.

[Sarissofoi]

If Syria become "free" from Assad christian minority will propably dissapear(like in "democratic" Iraq recently).

[Imperial]

Oh lawd

[white-wolf]

From Fox?

[Principe Alessandro]

Well it is the human nature to blame something for all the current problems and then when is gone to miss it.

[Vanoi]

I am curious to see what Turkey will do if the fighting spills over into their borders.

[motiv-8]

Oh lawd

LOL!

Bros should have been at Occupy Benghazi