Would China be able to win Afghanistan?

[LittleD]

This might be a little stupid, but since bascialy every country in the past few hundred years has failed to control Afghanistan, how do you guys think the Chinese would do? I mean, they are bordering Afghansitan, have up to 4-5 Million troops in total, and their tech is not far off from the US. And Im sure china has more of a "harsher" rules of angagment.

Or do you think they would just end up as the soviets?

[hellheaven1987]

I have a feeling that India would be so worried that start funding Taliban.

[Aetius]

Oh that would be a delicious opportunity for the United States.

China invades, uses zerg rush. Numbers is all well and good, but then they must be supplied. Chinas good relationship with the Pakistanis would help, but then the ever-present and insidious CIA would begin to work its magic by propping up resistance fighters, bribing pakistanis, generally making life hellish for China. Also Chia would get a lot of bad PR when it inevitably kills civilians. China would likely win however, but it would not be stronger after the fact, the government likely having to force a victory through sheer will.

[LittleD]

Well honestly the past 50 years or so showed that china does not really care about its PR.

[Alexander Barca]

China in Afghanistan? Well I'm going to say no but this requires a lot of speculation. The Chinese army, although extremely large, is a logistical nightmare. Not only that but Chinese doctrine has been based on Sun Tzu for thousands of years, making it very predictable. Lastly what is there to gain out of all of this? Profit in what form? Resources? Money? Prestige in the ME? Most likely a Chinese war will either reallocate civilian resources for production in military industries, causing unrest domestically, or will require a greater demand for arms import. Just a few ideas and will look forward to replies.

Alexander Barca

[LittleD]

China in Afghanistan? Well I'm going to say no but this requires a lot of speculation. The Chinese army, although extremely large, is a logistical nightmare. Not only that but Chinese doctrine has been based on Sun Tzu for thousands of years, making it very predictable. Lastly what is there to gain out of all of this? Profit in what form? Resources? Money? Prestige in the ME? Most likely a Chinese war will either reallocate civilian resources for production in military industries, causing unrest domestically, or will require a greater demand for arms import. Just a few ideas and will look forward to replies.

Alexander Barca

I didnt say there was a reason, all Im asking is how would china do with attempting to control Afghanistan, lets "pretend" that Osama had bombed Beijing. (no 9\11 conspericy's please). And China decided to invade Afghanistan.

[brandbll]

I didnt say there was a reason, all Im asking is how would china do with attempting to control Afghanistan, lets "pretend" that Osama had bombed Beijing. (no 9\11 conspericy's please). And China decided to invade Afghanistan.

Dude, why would China bomb Afghanistan to get back at us? If anything, dropping a few more bombs on Afghanistan would probably help us out.

[LittleD]

Dude, why would China bomb Afghanistan to get back at us? If anything, dropping a few more bombs on Afghanistan would probably help us out.

*facepalm* This has nothing to do with why! I give up.

Anyway I got my answer, and seeing as this is turning into a China vs USA fight and has nothing to do with Afghanstan anymore and is now about who has more casulties to wars that I did not even mention Ill leave it to you guys.

Thanks again to the people who stuck to the subject. Peace!


Woops and sorry for the double post!

[bushbush]

Anyway I got my answer, and seeing as this is turning into a China vs USA fight and who has more casulties to wars that I did not even mention Ill leave it to you guys.

Thanks again to the people who stuck to the subject. Peace!

well, sorry my friend. I tried my best to explain what China did in the past in similar situation like US in Afghanistan, see previous page.

[In3x]

Wouldn't they just massacre the local populace and then bribe their own citizens to migrate to Afghanistan and swamp the countries demographics, et viola 15 years later an almost entirely Chinese and Chinese speaking Afghanistan. I also imagine they wouldn't worry about collateral damage so much when engaging the Taliban. I honestly don't think that the Chinese would have much of a problem at all. You would have to ask yourself what on Earth the Chinese could possibly want from such a primitive and poverty ridden country. Not to mention they would become a target for international jihadis.

[bushbush]

Wouldn't they just massacre the local populace and then bribe their own citizens to migrate to Afghanistan and swamp the countries demographics, et viola 15 years later an almost entirely Chinese and Chinese speaking Afghanistan. I also imagine they wouldn't worry about collateral damage so much when engaging the Taliban. I honestly don't think that the Chinese would have much of a problem at all. You would have to ask yourself what on Earth the Chinese could possibly want from such a primitive and poverty ridden country. Not to mention they would become a target for international jihadis.

That model actually did not work too well for the Chinese in the past. The most successful minority region in China is Inner Mongolia (8 million mongols, more than Mongols in actual Mongolia the country, also bigger in geographical size). There has not been any open hostility among Mongols against Han Chinese for many years, even though China never used the heavy-handed policy you suggested here.

In contrast, China did a lot of what you mentioned in Tibet and Xinjiang, where there are still a lot of hostility and instability. Brutality against locals and massive immigration don't always work.

What seems to have worked in Inner Mongolia was genuine co-operation from Mongol elites who had credibility with the local population. The Mongols were comfortable working with Han Chinese elites and did so for centuries during Qing dynasty. Many Mongols were part of the Communist party leadership in the North early and fought together against the Japanese. Mongol elites were later part of the Communist China's national leadership and many were also high-ranking officials in the local level in Inner Mongolia (rather than having Han Chinese being appointed to those positions). There was a great level of trust and cooperation between Mongol elites and Han Chinese.

The opposite is true in Tibet and Xinjiang. Beijing basically appoints a bunch of Han Chinese from other parts of the country to these two regions and local elites are not included generally in the leadership.

[In3x]

That model actually did not work too well for the Chinese in the past. The most successful minority region in China is Inner Mongolia (8 million mongols, more than Mongols in actual Mongolia the country, also bigger in geographical size). There has not been any open hostility among Mongols against Han Chinese for many years, even though China never used the heavy-handed policy you suggested here.

In contrast, China did a lot of what you mentioned in Tibet and Xinjiang, where there are still a lot of hostility and instability. Brutality against locals and massive immigration don't always work.

What seems to have worked in Inner Mongolia was genuine co-operation from Mongol elites who had credibility with the local population. The Mongols were comfortable working with Han Chinese elites and did so for centuries during Qing dynasty. Many Mongols were part of the Communist party leadership in the North early and fought together against the Japanese. Mongol elites were later part of the Communist China's national leadership and many were also high-ranking officials in the local level in Inner Mongolia (rather than having Han Chinese being appointed to those positions). There was a great level of trust and cooperation between Mongol elites and Han Chinese.

The opposite is true in Tibet and Xinjiang. Beijing basically appoints a bunch of Han Chinese from other parts of the country to these two regions and local elites are not included generally in the leadership.

Fair enough, I just thought this might be what China would attempt in an Afghanistan invasion scenario. Maybe it doesn't work well but they still control Xinjiang and Tibet to this day. I do know what you are saying, Russification didn't work out in the long term for Russia so maybe one day these two regions will no longer be a part of China, although I doubt it.

[The_Valiant]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/wo...pagewanted=all

Just to throw that out there... China is resource hungry and access to new resources is always welcome, hence why the Chinese government is becoming so heavily involved in African countries and their affairs- especially in infrastructure.

Is it really that far fetched for them to do the same in Central Asia, or even any region of the world?

[LittleD]

Well I don't know too much about chinese military ROE and how they work, but I would belive it is much more harsh then Soviets and NATO. I just feel like china would have no problem calling in a airstrike or artillery barrage on a town with 1 enemy inside.

Im not saying Soviets or NATO havent done that but Chinese would just feel, lets say "less bad" about it.

[hellheaven1987]

The Mongols were comfortable working with Han Chinese elites and did so for centuries during Qing dynasty.

No wonder Mongols formed their own country Mongolia so quickly when Republic was formed.

[Luke Evans]

they proabbaly could it would be brutal and cruel and they would lose a lot of guys. i don't think it would be worth it.

[Alexander Barca]

they proabbaly could it would be brutal and cruel and they would lose a lot of guys. i don't think it would be worth it.

Chinese Military can afford these losses. Look at the pool of manpower they can draw from and also personnel costs are extremely low. Chinese reserves are inexhaustable and therefore getting to infrastructure is key to defeating them in an attrition war. But yes I agree I don't think any of it would be worth it.

Alexander Barca

[Alkaline Earth]

If they could I honestly don't think it's much of a prize. I mean come on, there are much easier, juicier targets for China. For example, the American economy.

~ Just sayin'

[Nevins]

They have not fought a war against any worth mentioning since what, the Sino-Vietnamese 16 day "War"? They completely lack for tested doctrine, for experienced NCOs or officers, even arguably the logistical know how to deploy outside of their borders for extended periods of time. Not to mention that a foreign war for no real reason will stir up trouble that the Communist party really doesn't want.

Won't happen, if it did, they couldn't do it. I'm not bashing China, its just that this is something they are not equipped for or capable of for now or for the near future.

[Exarch]

in an era where Beijing is actually starting to care about putting on a good face to the outside world, i think the "massacre strategy theory" is bunk.
also, second what bushbush wrote