How low by election 2008?

[Red Harvest]

How low do you predict the Bush approval rating will dip by the election of 2008?

And what factors do you see supporting this?

Obviously, the opinions will be very subjective but I though it might be interesting to look back on the predictions in the future to see who gets closest.

My own guess: 22%

Basis: I don't think there will be much good news to help out his approval ratings, and chances are that quite a few things could make them worse. Even so there are a few hardcore supporters that will not change their views (about any President, leader, etc.), so going below 20% seems almost impossible.

Major components/events I expect between now and then:
Recession
Housing bubble deflation accelerates resulting in record defaults (and contributes to recession)
Oil/energy prices continue long term trend higher (contributing to recession)
Combination of budget deficit and trade deficit reduce foreign investment in U.S. bonds and securities
Another very active hurricane season with major damage again both to housing and oil production and/or refining
Another embarassingly mismanaged response to a natural catastrophe
Increasing budget deficit (see housing, oil, recession.)
Medical costs and uninsured levels begin hitting the middle class in a big way
Greater acceptance and growing fear of global warming impacts
GOP turns on Dubya trying to distance themselves in 2006 and 2008 (already starting)
Stockmarket pulls back considerably erasing 1 to 2 trillion dollars in paper wealth.
Iran or North Korea go nuclear on Dubya's watch
Iraq civil war quagmire continues--national sentiment changes to getting out ASAP

Yes, I have a negative assessment of the economy at the moment (and that's why I have liquidated all but ~2% of my stock positions--it was a nice run, but I don't like the look going forward.) I would be interested to hear what those with rosier assessments expect over the next 2.5 years (good and bad.)

[RusskiSoldat]

Iamthepope will probably predict that Bush will solve all the world's problems and have approval ratings of 149%

[Sétanta]

Iamthepope will probably predict that Bush will solve all the world's problems and have approval ratings of 149%

For that matter so would Mudd.

Seriously though, I predict it will be higher than it is now, much higher

[Last Roman]

Iamthepope will probably predict that Bush will solve all the world's problems and have approval ratings of 149%

:laughing:

anyway, I can't see it getting much worse (unless we have another major oil crises and go to war with Iran) so I'll say it'll be about where it is now

[IamthePope]

Iamthepope will probably predict that Bush will solve all the world's problems and have approval ratings of 149%

Absolutely correct. I think the question should be "how high".

But seriously, this is an artificial low due to circumstances out of Dubya's control. People would be raving about the economy if not for the rise in Oil prices. People would be complementing Bush on the progress towards democracy in Iraq if the media werent so jittery about every other explosion.

I really doubt that any more people will come to view Dubya in a negative light. There will always a core constituency of 20-30% of the people who are above being swayed by the way the media casts the light on current events. These are the people who disliked Bush before and after 9/11 and these are the people that will support Bush throughout his presidency.

[lordyu]

It will be at 60%

[Red Harvest]

It will be at 60%

Fair enough (since we are all guessing in this thread) but do you have some events in mind that will produce such a turnaround?

Seriously though, I predict it will be higher than it is now, much higher

Same question.

[QuackyNC]

Well you pretty much listed all the problems he is going to face, uhh I would guess 15% by the end of his term, but it wont matter because he'll be outta there

[QuackyNC]

I have a feeling rising gas prices and the Iran and Iraq crisis are going to make it go down even further. I dont see how he could raise it unless he completley removed US troops from Iraq by 2008 which I doubt will happen.

[Farnan]

It is foolish to predict the future in politics, nearly everyone who tries ends up looking like an idiot. Who thought 4 1/2 years that Bush would not be the countries most beloved President? (he had around a 95% approval rating back then) Who predicted Clinton would beat Bush 41? Very few people did.

[Red Harvest]

Who thought 4 1/2 years that Bush would not be the countries most beloved President? (he had around a 95% approval rating back then) Who predicted Clinton would beat Bush 41? Very few people did.

I did. Seriously.

9/11 gave Bush an undeserved boost. It was a case of uniting behind the office, not necessarily the man. I remember warning my wife that day, "this will be bad, he'll think he has carte blanche to do anything he wants, all under the guise of national security."

And Bush 41 looked like dead meat to me, because he just didn't get it and was in reactive mode...that looks really familiar. What Clinton was saying during the election was one the money. Bush was lost.

[vizi]

Who cares? We will be electing the next bum to take over anyway.

It will be between 25-40%

[Farnan]

Here's a better example, who on September 10, 2001 would have though on September 12, 2001 the entire US Congress, Republicans and Democrats would spontaneously sing "God Bless America"

[Ó Cathasaigh]

Who is getting polled here?

These polls are absolutly rediculous and can not be taken serious as only a few hundred to maybe a thousand people if that, are asked.

They take nothing into acount about where they ask these people their opinions either, for all the pollers care, they could ask people who just walked out of teh Democrat national convention.

[vizi]

And I remember hearing somewhere that people who watch FOX News, well that about 80% of them fail current events quizzes. I don't know how factual that is but I tend to believe parts of it, since most of USA news is political rubbish anyways and lacks a true news appeal.

[trackjacket]

Most news sources here in the U.S. focus on missing blondes.

[vizi]

Most news sources here in the U.S. focus on missing blondes.

Thanks for the save, I forgot about that aspect of the news. No news like sensation news!

[trackjacket]

Thanks for the save, I forgot about that aspect of the news. No news like sensation news!

Yeah, you said it. People are murdered and abducted daily, but the news usually fixates on one story. Do families pay networks for coverage or something? I dunno.

[Red Harvest]

I predicted Iraq wrong. I didn't think Dubya could foul that up. Two events made me realize we were going to have problems one in the lead up, one immediately after invasion:
The first was the "justification" used. Personally, I felt Saddam's firing on our forces regularly was sufficient to body bag his regime (and still do.) The WMD thing seemed reasonable though...until Powell's presentation, when my conservative friends and I looked at each other and said, "That's it???"

The second was the looting of the Baghdad museum and particularly the administration response that, "we couldn't secure everything." That sent a green light to enemies in and out of Iraq to start an insurrection because we weren't going to maintain order. I couldn't believe it. If they had said, "we'll make sure nothing like that happens again" and made a great show of it then perhaps things would be different. But that was the day I knew we were in for it.

Who is getting polled here?

These polls are absolutly rediculous and can not be taken serious as only a few hundred to maybe a thousand people if that, are asked.

They take nothing into acount about where they ask these people their opinions either, for all the pollers care, they could ask people who just walked out of teh Democrat national convention.

I don't know, FOX came in at 33% and only a few weeks earlier they were deriding polls that had Dubya about 5% higher.

One thing I've noticed is that folks aren't afraid to criticize Dubya and his supporters anymore. The polls *definitely* reflect that shift.

But seriously, what do people see happening that is going to turn the tide the other way? I believe shifts happen as a result of various happenings (though often somewhat delayed.) So what do you see going right to swing opinion the other way?

[Hub'ite]

Why would Bush care? In 2008 hes done for good.