Escalation of iran conflict

[rez]

Yes I am indeed a crazy conspiracy theorist. But hear me out on this one.

Let us suppose that the U.S. decides to launch a military campaign against Iran

Not an entirely crazy idea at the moment.

But let us suppose that China decide this is yet another good oppurtunity to see America weaken and get China into prominence.

Would it really be a huge stretch of imagination to see China selling Iran weapons, equipment and information in order to bog down the U.S. and emerge the top power in the world?

If we were to suppose that China actually would do this we would see the beginning of an extremely hostile relationship between the U.S. and China.

A cold war or possibly even a full scale conflict that would end up effecting the whole world as other nations get roped in for the ride.

Now sure this could have happened in Iraq, but that war was a little too short for a real organised defence.

Im just wondering if the conflict in Iran will have ramifications that will snowball into an even more dangerous climate.

Any thoughts?

[David Deas]

Let us suppose that the U.S. decides to launch a military campaign against Iran - in the same style of the Iraq occupation.

Not an entirely crazy idea at the moment.

I had to stop reading your post and respond right there.

There is no objective to replace the Iran government. An assult on Iran cannot, and will not be prosecuted in the same way the Iraqi war was. We don't have the ground personnel or the resolve for a successful millitary occupation of an even larger country than Iraq.

[rez]

Well the rest of the post does not rely on that paticular tenet. Its the escalation of ANY real conflict that im talking about.

Il edit it though. Although i do see many posts detailing the ability of America to keep going and going

[1{H][NA]

i picture the EU reacting before the US does anything. be it further sanctions or an all out military strike. they have much more at stake than us americans. plus with the way the country seems divided on war now, i think opening another front would result in all hell breaking loose domestically; barring a direct threat of attack from iran.

plus i think china already sells iran weapons. war cant be good for china, they need their steady supply of oil for the country to stay afloat. gas shortages are a problem as it is in china. i think china would most likely get involved diplomatically or as a mediator between iran and the west.

[ajimenez3]

Well thought out possiblities, but none will happen.
USA: No political will or support for an attack against Iran as a country or to attack the Nuclear Facilities.
Europe: No real will or concern to do anything but talk about the problem.
Russia: Loves the situation. Can sell Nuclear material, equipment and knowledge in exchange for Iran buying weapons. Money.
China: As stated above anything to weaken the USA and to also sell Weapons to Iran
Israel: No way to strike Iran's Nuclear Facilities by air. The strike against the Iraqi Nuclear facility taxed the capabilities to the edge. The distance is even longer and unless the US looks the other way as they overfly Iraq it is much too far. Iraq will not allow them to land and refuel. That leaves the Israeli's using one of their Nukes (if the have a ballistic capability). Something I doubt they will do.
Iran: Knows that no one can stop them and is having a great time showing the rest of the Arab world that they can thumb their noses at the rest of the world and get away with it. Adds more clout to their leadership among Muslims/Arabs and the Terror orginizations that they fund and support.
Rest of World: Could care less as long as the USA is shown to be incabale of stopping Iran then they cheer silently in the background. Also if Iran dose make a bomb and uses it against Israel most in the world will not care because they really want Israel wiped off the face of the Earth.

Nothing is going to be done and Iran will get their Nuclear arsenal and the world will become a very tense place, becuase no one has the will to do anything about except talk.

Semper Fi
Arturo

[Aemilianus]

Honestly, I'm going to have to say that China can sell weapons to Iran all day and all night- a war against America will probably last just a little bit longer than the war against Iraq. Our forces would be on them from two fronts, Iran would have no navy as it would be destroyed, no air force, and a conventional army that is simply not up to the task. The "human wave" tactics they used against Iraq would be more humorous than anything against the US, assuming that we don't run out of bullets or the soldiers don't fall out of their guns in laughter.

Ajimenez, we didn't have much support for Iraq either, and Bush did it anyway. Iran is eventually going to get hit by somebody, the question is when, and I can see this happening during Bush's presidency, so I'm kind of resigned to it. I'm also kind of resigned to the fact that they might reinstate the draft and start sending people, but that's an entirely different topic.

China already doesn't like us very much, considering the Taiwan issue and our constant "human rights" pressures. If we conquer Iran (or at least take out their nuclear capability) they'll probably say a few things, but they're even less likely to do anything about it. All in all, I'm not for such an action, but I have to say Iran is very stupid to be doing what they're doing.

[Sétanta]

You realize of course that China already does sell them weapons. They sold Iraq weapons too.

[Ahiga]

You realize of course that China already does sell them weapons. They sold Iraq weapons too.

France did too. And we sold Iraq weapons, as well as the Mujahadeen (Now, of course, idiot's say we sold the taliban weapons but the taliban didn't exist. We'd have armed as many Northern alliance members as we would have Taliban members). I'm not attacking your statement. I'm just using it to explain that I think there's not much war to come about because one side gave the foes of another weapons. I think only a blitheringly stupid Russia and America would not have realized the opposite supported the guerilla's they fought, yet we didn't go to war.

[Sétanta]

France did too. And we sold Iraq weapons, as well as the Mujahadeen (Now, of course, idiot's say we sold the taliban weapons but the taliban didn't exist. We'd have armed as many Northern alliance members as we would have Taliban members) I think there's not much war to come about because one side gave the foes of another weapons. I think only a blitheringly stupid Russia and America would not have realized the opposite supported the guerilla's they fought, yet we didn't go to war.

Yes of course. So selling them weapons won't lead to an escalation. Unless they start selling them long range ICBMs or something

[krazykarl]

Doesnt Iran produce its own Missles, tanks jets APC's and the like. Russia is also selling Iran weapons, mainly air defense systems.

[GeneralLee]

Doesnt Iran produce its own Missles, tanks jets APC's and the like. Russia is also selling Iran weapons, mainly air defense systems.

They are redesigns and refittings of older soviet and american equipment for the most part. The Iranian military has yet to really recover from their loss of US support in the form of equipment. They went from frontline gear some of which hadnt even been fully deployed in the states (F-14's) to USSR surplus and chinese knockoffs. They've been looking for a way to regain some of their lost military influence ever since and the threat of nucleur tech is the easiest way to do so.

[Da Skinna]

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...62356431D8.htm

Interesting article regarding this.

[rez]

"Honestly, I'm going to have to say that China can sell weapons to Iran all day and all night- a war against America will probably last just a little bit longer than the war against Iraq. Our forces would be on them from two fronts, Iran would have no navy as it would be destroyed, no air force, and a conventional army that is simply not up to the task. The "human wave" tactics they used against Iraq would be more humorous than anything against the US, assuming that we don't run out of bullets or the soldiers don't fall out of their guns in laughter."

Whether or not the war is won quickly is not the point im trying to make here. If China is supplying Iran DURING the conflict between Iran and the west i think there could be serious ramifications as it indirectly lumps them into the axis of evil.

A clear excusefor Bush to put more pressure on China. Which is only going to antagonise them

[Mangalore]

Indirect support by China and Russia during a conflict would be most likely, official support would be not. This would be conducted in both countries' interest to counteract US' unilateral actions which is perceived among those two as attempts to a hegemony at most or infriction into their personal spheres of influence at least.
The support would however be not substantial, I think (though Iran's chances for that are better than Iraq's as the Russian-Iranian relations are quite deep, e.g. weapons and nuclear exports), Iraq was also supposedly supported by Russia with intelligence reports though it is most likely that Saddam was too stupid to use this advice.

Concerning the military. Iraq attacked Iran in 1980. Iran's revolution occurred in 1979 so I'd plainly assume that Iran was in the middle of officer purges and the reorganitation of governmental institutions towards the new establishment. Would the Iranian military be equally unfit in a new conflict as it was then? The display of new technological gimmicks and military prowress can imo be interpreted not just as propaganda stunts but also as a sign that the military is in a far more professional state than it was in 1979 so I doubt it would resort to "human wave" tactics and similar bloody means that were imo mainly born out of desperation in the chaotic and vulnerable times after the revolution.
I've little knowledge about the capabilities of the Iranian military but I find it equaly plausible that after 25 years the military has made up for most of its losses and human knowhow during the revolution. I'd see that similar to the Soviet officer purges that led to its incapability in the first half of WW2. The Iran-Iraq war might have worked similarily.

Other than that Russia and China have a great interest in keeping Iran sovereign and affiliated to them if only to have one source for oil that supplies their economies instead of western ones. Iin the case of Russia it also has to do with strategic concerns to stabilize its southern flank, they also led a great _political_ campaign in consolidating their grip on the central asiatic ex-Soviet countries, for them the US's involvement in Central Asia is similar to the British attempt in taking Afghanistan, a trespassing into their sphere of influence and as such a violation of their security bubble so to speak. Still, this would never escalate into a global conflict, I don't see either Russia or China being willing to defend Iran on the case of nuclear weapons (Russia said itself it doesn't want Iran to build them) so Iran is pretty isolated.

[Hub'ite]

Ah everyone is making a such a big deal about Iran. If they continue their nuclear research Israel will deal with it themselves. They did it to Iraq they'll do it to Iran. If Iran wants to fight the US they'll get their ass stomped into the ground and their will be one less crazy muslim dictator in the world.