The end of human labor, and the end of capitalism within our lifetimes

[Aetius]

I firmly beleive we will witness a huge change in our entire human economic system within our lifetimes. Unemployment among developed nations is here to stay, the old times aren't coming back, the trends are irreversible. Automation is the real reason behind growing unemployment. Developing nations only have employment because of low labor costs. But even they will be ed over within decades. Low labor costs cannot compete with automation, capitalism will die....probably very painfully too.

See: Agricultural Sector as the harbinger for every other economic sector, but for more thorough.



How do you think society will cope with ever increasing automation? Will the rich just get much richer while the poor rot in absolute poverty? Or will we use automation to our advantage and free humanity from most labor?





Additional reading from the guy who invented HowStuffWorks.com: http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

[Hoplite of Ilis]

The troubles of men will end when man is no more...

[Enemy of the State]

Luddites... frigging luddites.

[Aetius]

Luddites... frigging luddites.

Nice ad hominem, have anything else to offer?

This last wave of automation is not just targeting the primary and secondary secodary as in earlier times, but the tertiary sector. After that is automated there is nowhere for jobs to go for the vast majority of people. Human labor is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Global unemployment are at record highs.

These are just random coincidence? Hurr durr free market hurr unable to see underlying trends that are defining the future of the global economy

[Condottiere 40K]

We shall enter a golden age of plenty, whose denizens created master works of art that were the envy of later generations.

Or a massive increase in cat videos on Youtube.

[Erwin Rommel]

I welcome our new robot over........wait, they be our slaves and we will be allowed pursue more meaningful endeavors now that "work" and employment are afterthought.

More cat videos please.

Then after 3 or 4 generations of plenty, we realize the kids from this generation act like spoiled asses so we the centenarians hatched a global wide scheme that aims to shut down this automatic civilization and propel back mankind to the middle ages.................the 90s level of tech.

[Claudius Gothicus]

Unemployment has nothing to do with mechanization of industries, as Enemy of the State has already said peasants and artisans back in the early XIX century were proposing the same thing, that machines were the ones making everyone unemployed.

Yes, on a frictional scale certain jobs will dissapear due to fast mechanization, but on a macro level the reconvertion of industry and creation of new jobs is doable... and does happen. Global highs of unemployment are due to a massive transpossition of jobs from The well-developed countries to the developing ones like China or India.... AND A FRICKING RECESSION!!

[Menelik_I]

Unemployment has nothing to do with mechanization of industries, as Enemy of the State has already said peasants and artisans back in the early XIX century were proposing the same thing, that machines were the ones making everyone unemployed.

Yes, on a frictional scale certain jobs will dissapear due to fast mechanization, but on a macro level the reconvertion of industry and creation of new jobs is doable... and does happen. Global highs of unemployment are due to a massive transpossition of jobs from The well-developed countries to the developing ones like China or India.... AND A FRICKING RECESSION!!

This ^.

Luddites... frigging luddites.

And this ^.

@OP :

The video is nonsense, increased productivity mean we are going to build bigger, badded and hotter things for even more people, because Human desires have no limit.
This is the cellphon my father had.


This one is mine.


Cheaper goods means even poor people will enjoy amenities that where reserved to the rich decades earlier, and excess production capacity will be absorbed by building more complex and powerful devices.

We are probably going to move into a more service oriented economy, unless we use the excess capacity to build.

Also I don't see how this would kill ''Capitalism'', as increase in productivity is the hearth of it.

[Prosaic Visitant]

capitalism will die

Mmm, political fantasy detected; delicious.

Unemployment has nothing to do with mechanization of industries, as Enemy of the State has already said peasants and artisans back in the early XIX century were proposing the same thing, that machines were the ones making everyone unemployed.

Yes, on a frictional scale certain jobs will dissapear due to fast mechanization, but on a macro level the reconvertion of industry and creation of new jobs is doable... and does happen. Global highs of unemployment are due to a massive transpossition of jobs from The well-developed countries to the developing ones like China or India.... AND A FRICKING RECESSION!!

No, I'm pretty sure it's those robotic arms in factories located at Detroit and Berlin who are stealing our jobs.

[Aetius]

Unemployment has nothing to do with mechanization of industries, as Enemy of the State has already said peasants and artisans back in the early XIX century were proposing the same thing, that machines were the ones making everyone unemployed.

Yes, on a frictional scale certain jobs will dissapear due to fast mechanization, but on a macro level the reconvertion of industry and creation of new jobs is doable... and does happen. Global highs of unemployment are due to a massive transpossition of jobs from The well-developed countries to the developing ones like China or India.... AND A FRICKING RECESSION!!

Try to understand that this is not like first wave automation, that wave just made manual labor more obsolete, freeing up people to do more service oriented work. This wave attacks the service sector, and will create no new jobs. The core theory of capitalism is to provide a good or service for the most profit. Labor is almost always the highest cost to any business and is being replaced with any form of automation that is more cost-effective.

We are probably going to move into a more service oriented economy, unless we use the excess capacity to build.

Also I don't see how this would kill ''Capitalism'', as increase in productivity is the hearth of it.

Wake up, in developed countries the economy has already become highly service oriented. it's like you have come straight out of the 80s or 90s. As automation replaces service industry jobs there is nowhere for jobs to go. Almost any job can and will be replaced by automation within the century.

Cheaper goods means even poor people will enjoy amenities that where reserved to the rich decades earlier, and excess production capacity will be absorbed by building more complex and powerful devices.

Recycling increasingly outdated economic theory without analyzing underlying trends. "Excess production capacity will be absorbed by building more complex and powerful devices"? Building more complex devices =/= more employment.


You are all ignoring one fact, automation is replacing the SERVICE SECTOR, not factories (that is very old news). You have no answer to that, this is an unprecedented trend.

[Menelik_I]

Wake up, in developed countries the economy has already become highly service oriented. it's like you have come straight out of the 80s or 90s. As automation replaces service industry jobs there is nowhere for jobs to go. Almost any job can and will be replaced by automation within the century.

Living in a poor country might explain that. I am pretty sure I am the only person on this forum who actually built his own house, from making bricks, to digging, to ''mounting it'', it was all by hand, expensive and exhausting.

A brick manufacturing machine and a crane would have been handy, so I never see a problem with production enhancing technologies.

Recycling increasingly outdated economic theory without analyzing underlying trends. "Excess production capacity will be absorbed by building more complex and powerful devices"? Building more complex devices =/= more employment.

Employment is merely the tool to attain a goal : Consumable goods.

If we can attain consumable goods with fewer work, I don't see a problem, especially since we would be building spaceships by the millions if it happened.

[Claudius Gothicus]

Try to understand that this is not like first wave automation, that wave just made manual labor more obsolete, freeing up people to do more service oriented work. This wave attacks the service sector, and will create no new jobs. The core theory of capitalism is to provide a good or service for the most profit. Labor is almost always the highest cost to any business and is being replaced with any form of automation that is more cost-effective.

SPSS needs an Analyst to pour in the data and the variables.

Excel needs an accountant to create the functions and establish the values.

Photoshop needs designers to create and mix the colors and trends into attractive objects.

Machines need Engineers to create them.

Burgers need burger makers.

etc. etc.

In other words, Labor is not only a Factor of Production, it's the innovative process by which us humans maintain ourselves alive and thriving. The currently faced problems of automatizing only add a small shade to the already black horizon of a recessive era, it's in no way going to replace humans. The problem is that we are in the middle of a recession not that we are getting replaced.

A machine will never be able to theorize and practice in the way we humans do, from that point on wards labor will exist as long as we do.

[boofhead]

I think something is going to bust soon. And terrible things will eventuate. I'm not sure what it will be, or exactly when or why, but there's a whole heap of fake crap going on.

Population is getting out of control and something has to give eventually. Resources? Look at the ''Service'' sector in Western economies - what are they but middle men? Wealthy societies dominated by middlemen? It's fake.

Thank God I'll most likely be dead by then, but I fear for my kids!

[Rex Germanius]

I think something is going to bust soon. And terrible things will eventuate. I'm not sure what it will be, or exactly when or why, but there's a whole heap of fake crap going on.

Population is getting out of control and something has to give eventually. Resources? Look at the ''Service'' sector in Western economies - what are they but middle men? Wealthy societies dominated by middlemen? It's fake.

Thank God I'll most likely be dead by then, but I fear for my kids!

Actually, the rate of population increase in most western countries in negative, and most other countries, including China, are moving into the second part of the demographic shift, meaning world population will soon decrease.

[Maidel]

I had both those phones...


And if you go back to 1800, just as steam engines were comming into use, we said exactly the same thing. You had rebels destroying steam engines saying they were stealing our jobs.

Frankly the uk has no manufacturing of any great importance and we currently have a relatively low unemployment rate (it's high, but nothing like Spain's for example). Jobs adapt, skills adapt. You can't get a job now if you can't use a phone and a computer. 20 years ago computers were specialist machines used by important people.

[Maidel]

How is automation replacing the service sector? ATMs and automatic check outs are the only thing I can think of. You want a robotic hairdresser cutting your hair? Or a robotic estate agent selling your house?

It's just not happening in the way you describe.

[Aetius]

How is automation replacing the service sector? ATMs and automatic check outs are the only thing I can think of. You want a robotic hairdresser cutting your hair? Or a robotic estate agent selling your house?

It's just not happening in the way you describe.

If its cheaper, it will happen. Haircut for 1 dollar, online real estate service for .01% commission!

There is an implicit assumption underlying the fallacious idea that lots of regular humans will always find ways to do service work that machines can't do will itself be fallacious as IT advances. Unlike in the 20th century, when the tertiary sector absorbed all of the workers that the automation of the secondary sector expelled, the tertiary sector now also faces depopulation via automation; its employment will shrink, not grow, and this time there is no other sector to backstop the process by absorbing the displaced workers.

CNN wrote a very good article on this topic; http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/10/news...tune/index.htm

[Plan C]

If its cheaper, it will happen. Haircut for 1 dollar, online real estate service for .01% commission!

There is an implicit assumption underlying the fallacious idea that lots of regular humans will always find ways to do service work that machines can't do will itself be fallacious as IT advances. Unlike in the 20th century, when the tertiary sector absorbed all of the workers that the automation of the secondary sector expelled, the tertiary sector now also faces depopulation via automation; its employment will shrink, not grow, and this time there is no other sector to backstop the process by absorbing the displaced workers.

I think the term 'automation' is somewhat unfortunate as it evokes particular mental image. Small wonder Luddites spring to the minds of some.

What is certainly happening right now, though, is service model consolidation, process-driven efficiency initiatives, outsourcing etc. Service specialization tends to bring, to the successful, growth, consolidation and efficiency. Look at NHS reforms, the whole point of closing surplus hospitals is service consolidation in the name of efficiency. This involves various factors - economy of scale, for one, as well as stronger leverage on embedding processes, larger margins for further efficiency gains etc. So, yeah, tertiary sector needs fewer and fewer people each year. I look at it from IT service delivery POV as this is my field of work. The old mantra of 'freeing up resources to achieve a more diverse service model' was still true 2 years ago but now there is simply no need for so many ex-sysadmins and old-school 3rd-liners to train users on security best practice. I'm sorry but many jobs will go never to return again.

Look at retail; I do so much shopping online that I hardly remember what a bank note even looks like. High street shopping? Maybe jewelry and somesuch but defo not electronics, white goods, food, often not even clothes as I can return ill-fitting ones dead easy.

Accountancy? My accountant is able to charge me a laughable <£1500 p.a for the full roster of services, I don't even get hmrc letters. Why? Because he serves 200+ clients. Because he can easily manage that with the right software.

I am afraid that services sector will keep shedding jobs because fewer are required. This is not a bad thing, though.
One of the upshots of the current employment market conditions in the UK is a sharp increase in the number of small businesses. Fewer people in jobs = more self employed. Or thereabouts. My hope is that a decline in structured employment will breed an increase in independent business activity and foster a more proactive and dynamic approach to work and career. Call me silly, perhaps I am, but I feel this is the only way to introduce, and foster, libertarian values in society. Perhaps not. Whaddya reckon guys and gals?

[Aetius]

^
This guy knows what is up

I am afraid that services sector will keep shedding jobs because fewer are required. This is not a bad thing, though.
One of the upshots of the current employment market conditions in the UK is a sharp increase in the number of small businesses. Fewer people in jobs = more self employed. Or thereabouts. My hope is that a decline in structured employment will breed an increase in independent business activity and foster a more proactive and dynamic approach to work and career. Call me silly, perhaps I am, but I feel this is the only way to introduce, and foster, libertarian values in society. Perhaps not. Whaddya reckon guys and gals?

I think that more small businesses/innovation is likely, but for the common person this won't be overall beneficial.

[Maidel]

Look at retail; I do so much shopping online that I hardly remember what a bank note even looks like. High street shopping? Maybe jewelry and somesuch but defo not electronics, white goods, food, often not even clothes as I can return ill-fitting ones dead easy.

Accountancy? My accountant is able to charge me a laughable <£1500 p.a for the full roster of services, I don't even get hmrc letters. Why? Because he serves 200+ clients. Because he can easily manage that with the right software.

And obviously there are no people at all at the other end of that email sending you said online shopping, nor is there an accountant and his assistants actually using said software.

Then you go back up the chain - more stuff is being delivered, thus, more people making deliveries. More stuff is being done online, thus more computers are made (and thats a whole other chain.)

Jobs are lost in one place, and it creates skilled jobs and unskilled jobs in others.