Would the Arab Spring Have Occurred Sooner If the Iraq War Didn't Happen?

[jankren]

Its in my opinion that the Iraq War postponed the Arab Spring and gave rise to unnecessary worldwide instability. It distracted the attention of the Middle Eastern people from their own dictators to the 'Great Satan' who was occupying their neighbor.

[Exarch]

well 9/11 did refocus the US' attention on islamist terrorist groups, some of which were oppsed to (US backed) dictators; that's why G-man complied with a lot of Bush II's wishes in the War on Terror.

[Mr. Scott]

I don't think the two are so related.
had the 08 recession and the droughts in Russia, China, and Australia not occurred, there likely would have been no arab spring.

In all reality, it was the high food prices and the faltering economies that caused the water to boil over (resulting in the public's grievances surfacing powerfully).

[Exarch]

I don't think the two are so related.
had the 08 recession and the droughts in Russia, China, and Australia not occurred, there likely would have been no arab spring.

In all reality, it was the high food prices and the faltering economies that caused the water to boil over (resulting in the public's grievances surfacing powerfully).

it's true that egypt's arab spring was directly influenced by unsubsidised bread prices, and egypt's massive unemployment compelled a lo of egyptians to protest, but what about smaller relatively well educated and wealthier countries such as Bahrain?

Bahrain's arab spring was crushed (with Saudi assistance and the USG turning a blind eye) and there were religious factors in play as well; most of the protesters were Shiite whereas the monarchy was largely Sunni

[Ancient Aliens]

I think it's naive to suggest that U.S. had no role in some of the Middle Eastern revolutions. In fact, if the war hadn't have happened, there is a good chance that the U.S. wouldn't have been concerned with inciting democratic revolutions in the region.

[Mr. Scott]

Bahrain was only in revolution because North Africa was and North Africa was because of food prices.

I doubt Bahrain would have revolted in such a way had no other nation done so.

[Condottiere 40K]

I credit Osama with this trend; if he hadn't decided to singe Uncle Sam's beard, refocussing W's attention from the US economy and the Far East to the Middle East, allowing him a casus belli for Iraq (which the moment the planes hit the Towers, a lot of us must have suspected), it started the trigger for what has borne fruit this year. While it's not the only factor, it's the decisive factor.

[Stavroforos]

Unemployment and poverty along with the increasing prices of food and commodities caused the Arab spring, so no, Iraq had little to do with it. In fact, it's a good thing America intervened in Iraq because if Saddam had been overthrown by his own countrymen, who knows what sort of regime would have come to power.

[Prosaic Visitant]

@OP: What effect Iraq had is debatable. However, this revolution, like most revolutions, occurred due to economics. A revolution is three days without food, or so the quote goes.

You say that the IW distracted the Arabs from their state. Maybe, to an extent; but nothing distracts you from no income and from being hungry.

Unemployment and poverty along with the increasing prices of food and commodities caused the Arab spring, so no, Iraq had little to do with it. In fact, it's a good thing America intervened in Iraq because if Saddam had been overthrown by his own countrymen, who knows what sort of regime would have come to power.

I was also wondering how the esteemed Hussein would've reacted to his own protestors.

[jankren]

Its most naive to think that the Iraq War somehow triggered the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring was triggered by an incident in Tunisia, and I doubt most of the Arab people have 'Iraqi Democracy' in mind when they launched the revolutions. The Arab people hate the Iraq War. The only people who worship the Iraq War are only Americans.

I would say the Iraq war planted the seeds for the arab spring. The high unemployment, high food costs was the water that made it grow.
The idea's that were spread from the Iraq War and proceding years as governments were formed and elections had reverberated throughout the arab world. The ideas were thus; You don't HAVE to have a dictator, you don't HAVE to be undemocratic, you CAN have a say. It was exemplified with what happened in Iraq and the people saw this and carried this forward in their countries.

Lol, Twitter brought on the Arab Spring. With or without the Iraq War, technological advances in mass media would have brought on revolutions in the Arab World anyway. Besides Lebanon has been a democratic Arab state for decades. So there goes your argument ,,,

I was also wondering how the esteemed Hussein would've reacted to his own protestors.

The same way Assad is dealing with it right now.

[VALIS]

Lol, Twitter brought on the Arab Spring. With or without the Iraq War, technological advances in mass media would have brought on revolutions in the Arab World anyway. Besides Lebanon has been a democratic Arab state for decades. So there goes your argument ,,,

BAHAHAHAHA twitter was the reason for the arab spring!???

[jankren]

BAHAHAHAHA twitter was the reason for the arab spring!???

Social media networks did bring on the Arab Spring. Thanks to modern mass media, a small protest could turn into a massive revolt within a week.

[Claudius Gothicus]

BAHAHAHAHA twitter was the reason for the arab spring!???

Not quite so but yeah, internet played a big part in organizing flash mobs on the goverment... none can deny the power of an under-surveilled communication instrument, at least in Egypt and Tunisia.

[Maidel]

In fact I think the exact opposite is true. Had 9/11 not happened and the Iraq war had stayed in the 90's then egypts uprising would have failed. The reason I say that is that the regime in Egypt was very close to the uk/USA and thus had there been the money/ political will, then they would have supported Mubarak and even their taciturn approval would probably have been enough to ensure his continued control.

[Liamgamer55]

In fact I think the exact opposite is true. Had 9/11 not happened and the Iraq war had stayed in the 90's then egypts uprising would have failed. The reason I say that is that the regime in Egypt was very close to the uk/USA and thus had there been the money/ political will, then they would have supported Mubarak and even their taciturn approval would probably have been enough to ensure his continued control.

Lol, Twitter brought on the Arab Spring. With or without the Iraq War, technological advances in mass media would have brought on revolutions in the Arab World anyway. Besides Lebanon has been a democratic Arab state for decades. So there goes your argument ,,,

There's currently a debate going on within the left as to whether the internet or general trade union/protest activity was more important in the Arab Spring. I'd have to side with it was probably less so the internet, just that that's why it got a lot of extra media coverage (because the US media doesn't cover egyptian strikes but does cover dissident hashtags).

A failing economy is a failing economy, maybe the internet started this wave of revolutions, but I doubt Muburak would've survived 6-12 months longer with or without new technology. I also think the role al jazeera (arabic) played in the revolution is seriously underrated. When's the last time you heard about what the Russian media says about your country on TV? I doubt arabs who don't speak english watch much english media, so really I think people put too much emphasis on how it's covered in the west.

As for whether nearby wars are important in politics. Well ofcourse they are. Many egyptians are very unhappy about how Mubarak treated the west (including Israel). Naturally that's going to make him lose support in certain areas he would've otherwise had.

[VALIS]

I would say the Iraq war planted the seeds for the arab spring. The high unemployment, high food costs was the water that made it grow.
The idea's that were spread from the Iraq War and proceding years as governments were formed and elections had reverberated throughout the arab world. The ideas were thus; You don't HAVE to have a dictator, you don't HAVE to be undemocratic, you CAN have a say. It was exemplified with what happened in Iraq and the people saw this and carried this forward in their countries.

So it had its genesis in the war, if the Arab Spring had taken place without the Iraq War then it may have been a baggy unsure of itself, vague and directionless movement of anger rather than having coherent goals and objectives of accountability, democracy, freedom etc.

While a blundering failure at first look, the Iraq War could turn out to be a masterstroke. (perhaps an unintentional masterstroke)

[Col. Tartleton]

Uncle Sam demands a sacrifice and it will be paid in crude oil and the blood of a million Hajjis.

[Claudius Gothicus]

In Tunisia's and Egypt's cases without the drought(and recession that dropped everyone's GDP during 09) and the widespread development of Online Social Networks a rebellion would have been hard, never undestimate the organizing abilities of the internetz

So yeah...

High Food Prices+Facebook = Revolution

[mrmouth]

To say that watching Iraqis (and Afghans) vote freely, and bravely, didn't stir feelings in the Muslim/Arab world, is totally naive. The underlying reasons for getting involved in that part of the world had to do with just this. Unfortunately it has been buried under the pretexts that the Iraq war specifically, was sold to us. Sometimes you just cannot level with people. Especially that part of the world. Tell them that you have a plan to sow the seeds of democracy, that it will be tough and bloody, and that it could take decades, and all you will get is armed resistance. That is the human way.

[Blaze86420]

Sometimes you just cannot level with people. Especially that part of the world. Tell them that you have a plan to sow the seeds of democracy, that it will be tough and bloody, and that it could take decades, and all you will get is armed resistance. That is the human way.

Nobody asked for your ing "democracy" so keep it within your borders. With the pretext of "civilizing" the Near East, the US, Britain, and France caused enough economic damage to last decades and enough casualties to overflow graveyards. Sow the seeds of democracy my ass, were you guys sowing the seeds of democracy when you overthrew Mossadegh and put the Baathists in power? What about Mubarak? The Saud?