Would Taiwan fight to the Death?

[Sétanta]

As we all know that Taiwan, if it ever decides to seek independence, will be promptly attacked by China. Now the US says it will intervene but in all likelyhood wouldn't.

So my question is: If Taiwan declared Independence (or was invaded on a whim by Chinese hotheads) would the Taiwanese people fight to the death as promised?

They have a large, modern military and would undoubtably fight with all their might to resist invasion but would they turn their island into a Stalingrad?

[Hader]

Probably not, due to international pressure from other superpowers. I doubt that anyone would support the actions of the Chinese and chances are nobody would. But if it did happen the US would interfere. Their reasoning would be that communism must fall and that they had to interfere.

[dgoodman]

I doubt they would fight very hard if the Chinese invaded. Remember they are ethnically identical and culturally similar. That doesnt mean they wouldnt resist strongly, but they will account for the military superiority o China and not dig their own grave.

[Lee1026]

Well, that is what they said about the English and the Germans.....

[Darth Wong]

Well, that is what they said about the English and the Germans.....

The English and the Germans did not fight to the death. I've never heard of an entire race, creed, or country fighting to the death unless they had no choice, ie- someone was attempting to exterminate them and they were defending themselves. If the enemy is vastly superior and offers terms of surrender, I think people will generally take those terms.

[Lee1026]

Like the actual events of 1940, for example? Hitler offered Churchhill some excellent terms.

But the thread opener asked if they were willing to turn parts of their nation into a stalinsgrad, which suggest that he really means "Would they fight as hard as the soviets did in WWII"

[Final Frontier]

Well, because the U.S. said they would "protect" Taiwan there seem to be two choices:

> Help Taiwan and go to war with China
> Let the Chinese take over and be criticized for going back on our their words

It does not seem like a great situation to be in, but this is only from what I have seen/heard. I don't think this will happen in the distant future, but if it did I would say that the Taiwanese would fight if the U.S. sent help, and they may only fight for a short time before letting the war escalate to China vs. the U.S., which may even lead to other nations getting involved.

[Major.Stupidity]

I've never heard of an entire race, creed, or country fighting to the death

Uh, the Japanese Army in World War 2, no?

[Garbarsardar]

The people living in Taiwan are in two minds about this. Half of them consider themselves Chinese and Taiwan the "real" China and the other half Taiwanese.
Still at the moment even the pro-independence faction would not like to provoque a Chinese reaction. There are 900 missiles targeting the island, and I can see the AAA from the window of my office every day.
The "one China" fation hopes that in the future re-integration of the Island will become possible because mainland China will evolve into a democratic nation.
If the question of the thread is what would happen if there was PRC aggression today let me tell you the following.

Scenario one:Missile attacks from PRC, International crisis, Taiwan independant.
Scenario two: Large scale invasion, American intervention WW3.
Scenario three: Large scale invasion, America stays out, Japan throws an epileptic fit, PRC has unthinkable casualties,the isalnd falls in two weeks, cold war.

[Lee1026]

Scenario four - Taiwan declares self as independent, mass invarsion, America stays put, and then Japan throws a massive fit, and frostier relations bewteen China and everyone else for a while.

[Mímirswell]

I think we can safely conclude that without explicit understanding from the USA that they will intervene on Taiwan's behalf; there is no chance Taiwan will declare independence.

[Garbarsardar]

I think we can safely conclude that without explicit understanding that the USA plans to intervene; Taiwan will not declare independence.

Actually at the forseeable future Taiwan will declare independance only if attacked or if the US (for reasons I cannot possibly conceive) asks them to.

[Lee1026]

People have been known to act irrationally in the past, even national leaders.

[Mímirswell]

People have been known to act irrationally in the past, even national leaders.

True but in this case I think the leader would be forcibly removed and an apology issued to China were war on the horizon without US aid.

Actually at the forseeable future Taiwan will declare independance only if attacked or if the US (for reasons I cannot possibly conceive) asks them to.

I had revised my statement right before you responded to make this more apparent.

[Lee1026]

I revise my statement - Entire nations have been known to act irrationally in the past.

[Garbarsardar]

I revise my statement - Entire nations have been known to act irrationally in the past.

I agree that it would seem so at first. Think now of a historical example to your liking and you will discover (with the benefit of hindsight accounted for) that for every "irrational" behaviour there are very rational antecedents. I do not imply that history functions in a linear way or in strict cause-effect sequence, far from it. Nevertheless our concept of irrationality is based about our peception of "breaks" or discontinuity. A closer look would certainly prove that History is never surprising or discontinuous.

Furthermore that looks as a very good topic fro the VV. Should I start or you're in the mood for it?

[Eric]

This is an awful situation. We are, quite possibly, standing on the brink of the Third World War. A war that promises to be the most devasting in human history and will possibly wipe us out in a nuclear holocaust the likes of which has never been seen. Dammit! I'm too young to die, I've never done so many things! I'm still a virgin!!

[Final Frontier]

This is an awful situation. We are, quite possibly, standing on the brink of the Third World War. A war that promises to be the most devasting in human history and will possibly wipe us out in a nuclear holocaust the likes of which has never been seen. Dammit! I'm too young to die, I've never done so many things! I'm still a virgin!!

My advice: If there is a third world war that puts the Earth at the brink of destruction, convert to Islam. Why? You have 0.0001% hope of having the "70 virgins in heaven" theory come true.

---

Back to the point, I don't think WWIII will be caused by this. I'm looking more towards other hot spots, like Kashmir or North Korea, but I don't expect (or maybe 'hope for' would be the better words) a world war in my lifetime.

[Oldgamer]

I don't believe that China will attack Taiwan, as long as they know that Taiwan will receive US support. There would be a lot of brinksmanship, but the Chinese realise that a nuclear strike on the United States would bring an incredibly devastating response from the us.

As for the Taiwanese, I think that they would fight to a bloody and terrible end. There are 60 years of separation between the mainland and Taiwan, and the Taiwanese people have no desire to come under the power of the old men who run the PRC. They have a large and highly-trained plus motivated military force, and they will use it. Much of their military infrastructure is located underground, and would survive all but Chinese nuclear missile attacks (and those attacks would make the attempt to re-take Taiwan pointless, in my estimation).

Of course, to my "virgin" friend Eric, there is an upside to a nuclear war. It would mitigate global warming!

[sephodwyrm]

Taiwan would fight to the whims of the US.

The "dissolution" of the unification council has been changed to "abeyance", as a result of US pressures.

The second biggest challenger to TI is the US, and that is very unfortunate given that a lot of TI supporters are very pro-US.