Pakistan Taliban leader "isolated," facing splits

[Babur]

I am not sure if this is good news or not, since the Pakistani Taliban will pose a threat to Pakistan regardless of whether its leadership can actually control the movement.This could in the long term either spawn new movements or lead to a weakening of the insurgency in Pakistan.

Pakistan Taliban leader "isolated," facing splits




ISLAMABAD | Tue Jul 5, 2011 10:15am BST
(Reuters) - The chief of the Pakistan Taliban has been isolated from his militant group for more than a year and is rapidly losing control, a newspaper reported on Tuesday, a day after the military said it had launched an offensive in the northwest.

Associates of Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud and intelligence officials in Islamabad say Mehsud's position is tenuous following the defection of one of his top commanders last week, Pakistan's Express Tribune daily newspaper.

The defecting commander, Fazal Saeed Haqqani, who was the Taliban leader in the Kurram region on the Afghan border, told Reuters in late June that he left over the group's "brutal" attacks on civilians. Haqqani has pledged to fight against the Pakistani Taliban and U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

"It looks as though he is just a figurehead now," the Express Tribune quoted one of Mehsud's associates as saying of the Pakistani Taliban commander.

"He can hardly communicate with his commanders in other parts of the tribal areas ... he is in total isolation. Only a few people within the TTP know where he is."

The Pakistani Taliban, or Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), is an umbrella alliance of about 12 militant factions strung out through the northwestern Pashtun lands along the border.

It is the biggest threat to the Pakistani state and is behind many of the suicide bombings and other attacks across the country.

Several more Taliban commanders in Kurram, where the army has just launched an offensive, might desert Mehsud soon and the military was seeking to split commanders from him, the paper reported.

"You will see more of his boys turning against him and this is exactly what we desired and have been working on," an official who deals with counter-terrorism operations told the newspaper.

Haqqani's brother also said there was dissent in the top ranks.

"We got some indication that several commanders are not happy with Hakimullah and they may join us," Adil Rehman, who acts as a spokesman for his brother's faction, told Reuters on Tuesday.

Mehsud attempted but failed to woo Haqqani back to the TTP last week but Mehsud refused to shun violence in Pakistan and Haqqani refused to rejoin, Rehman said.

"They were not ready to accept our demand and insisted they would continue their attacks on security forces and civilians."

The army said Monday it had launched an air and ground offensive in Kurram against Taliban militants, its first major military operation since the May 2 killing of Osama bin Laden, and coming just days after Haqqani's desertion.

"The operation has been launched with the aim of clearing the region of militants who have indulged in kidnapping and suicide attacks on security installations and forces there," army spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said Monday.

The United States has been pushing Pakistan to tackle militants along its porous border with Afghanistan.

The Pashtun tribal lands along the border have never been under the full control of any government and have become a refuge for al Qaeda-linked militants, who plan and carry out attacks against NATO forces fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan.

(Reporting by Georgina Prodhan; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/0...76418820110705

[Gumpfendorfer]

It fits the pattern of the Pak Military trying to split Islamist groups into several others the moment they turn against the Pakistan state, as in the case of Mehsud. Seems like they have a deal with Fazal Haqqani.

Even if that is not the case, it doesn't mean troubles are over, in none of the cleared areas since 2008/9, the Pakistan government is able to assert its control.

[Babur]

It fits the pattern of the Pak Military trying to split Islamist groups into several others the moment they turn against the Pakistan state, as in the case of Mehsud. Seems like they have a deal with Fazal Haqqani.

Even if that is not the case, it doesn't mean troubles are over, in none of the cleared areas since 2008/9, the Pakistan government is able to assert its control.

This may merely lead to a further decentralisation of the movement, I am sure that there are still channels through which both the Pakistani Taliban and Taliban can communicate.

[Gumpfendorfer]

This may merely lead to a further decentralisation of the movement, I am sure that there are still channels through which both the Pakistani Taliban and Taliban can communicate.

All the groups work together on a tactical level, and all groups kill each other over very little, usually cash. The LWJ confirms my initial reaction.

[Babur]

All the groups work together on a tactical level, and all groups kill each other over very little, usually cash. The LWJ confirms my initial reaction.

But do they need each other to survive? I am not sure tbh

[Gumpfendorfer]

But do they need each other to survive? I am not sure tbh

I am not under the impression that these guys have a long term agenda. They survive thanks to the Pakistan government.

[mrmouth]

As soon as I saw the source I knew LWJ would have its own commentary on the subject.

While it is tempting to fall for such an optimistic report, if the recent past is any indication, then the report is wrong. First, there are some factual errors and problems with the report. As noted here, Fazal Saeed Utezai is not the overall leader of the Taliban in Kurram. Maulvi Noor Jamal, who is also known as Maulvi Toofan, leads the Taliban in Kurram. Fazal's influence is clearly being inflated (by Fazal and his brother, who appear to be the primary drivers of the story). A week ago, Fazal commanded a couple of hundred fighters. Now, today, he commands more than a thousand.

Second, infighting between Taliban groups and the assassination of leaders is not at all uncommon. The fighting between the groups in Khyber and Arakzai mentioned in the article is commonplace in the tribal areas. With little effort, you can find instances of infighting within the Pakistani Taliban, even when it was at its height in power during the Swat takeover in 2008-2009. Hakeemullah's forces have butted heads with Mullah Nazir's troops in the past, but both still work together (Nazir shelters Hakeemullah's forces as well as al Qaeda's). The same goes for intra-Taliban assassinations. These actions are the outcome of the Taliban's version of power politics.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, defections by Taliban groups from the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan are also nothing new. For the perfect example of this, look no further than the now-defunct Abdullah Mehsud Group. This Taliban subgroup, which was based in Dera Ismail Khan and Tank, was part of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (which at the time was led by Baitullah Mehsud) before it defected during the summer of 2009 and sought the support of the Pakistani military. The media gleefully held up the Abdullah Mehsud Group as a viable alternative to the Taliban; it was portrayed as a tribal resistance force akin to Iraq's Awakening movement. And the power, influence, and size of the Abdullah Mehsud Group was also exaggerated (at one point, the media claimed the group had 3,000 fighters, when in fact it had several hundred).

But it was all downhill from there. On June 23, 2009, Zainuddin Mehsud, the leader of the Abdullah Mehsud Group, was assassinated. His brother Misabhuddin took control but was quickly ousted by Ikhlas Khan Mehsud, who was then replaced by Turkistan Bhittani. Bhittani's forces were routed in large clashes with Baitullah, even though Bhittani received artillery and other support from the Pakistani military. In September 2009, Bhittani was disarmed by the military and went into hiding. The Abdullah Mehsud Group quickly faded from the scene.

Ironically enough, the Abdullah Mehsud Group was held up by the media as an "anti-Taliban" group, when it was anything but. This notion was supported by the Pakistani military, despite the fact that the leaders of the Abdullah Mehsud Group vowed to conduct attacks in Afghanistan and swore fealty to Mullah Omar, the leader of the overall Taliban movement. So, in fact, the Pakistani military attempted to bring the Abdullah Mehsud Group back into its fold, by making it "good Taliban."

And that is very likely what is happening with Fazal Saeed Utezai's faction in Kurram (note that Fazal said he still wants to kill NATO forces in Afghanistan and impose Sharia there and in Pakistan, he just opposes suicide attacks against Pakistani civilians and the military). Now Fazal's group may not meet the same fate as the Abdullah Mehsud Group, and his defection from the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan may weaken it, but it won't weaken the overall Taliban movement.

What you are witnessing is a very cynical game by the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment to get wayward Taliban groups back into the fold.

Read more: http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat...#ixzz1RH1kwysj

[Babur]

Interesting read+rep!

[hellheaven1987]

I wonder when would "Good Taliban" take over Pakistan.

[Burnum]

As soon as I saw the source I knew LWJ would have its own commentary on the subject.

When I heard heard about this, I immediately thought about similar things. The Taliban aren't a cohesive group and factions have different aims and ideologies. Sometimes the media reports fighting between the ALPs and Organized Criminals as Taliban violence.

[bushbush]

more drones on these sobs please.

[Necromancer]

While it makes it more difficult to keep track of various groups, their leaders, affiliates etc. it also makes it easier to divide and conquer. And the former's already been taken care of for everyone.