Breakthrough on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict expected in Kazan

[General David]

Russia hosts trilateral summit on Nagorny Karabakh

MOSCOW, June 24 (RIA Novosti)

Presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet on Friday in the Volga city of Kazan in an attempt to move closer to a settlement of the two-decade conflict between Baku and Yerevan over Nagorny Karabakh.

Nagorny Karabakh, a breakaway region on Azerbaijani territory with a predominantly ethnic Armenian population, has remained in Armenian control since the late 1980s, when the region claimed independence from Azerbaijan to join Armenia. The conflict is estimated to have left more than 30,000 people dead on both sides between 1988 and 1994.

U.S., France, and Russia presented a preliminary version of the Basic Principles for the Nagorny Karabakh settlement to Armenia and Azerbaijan in November 2007 in Madrid. The version was updated in 2009.

The Basic Principles include the return of the territories surrounding Nagorny Karabakh to Azerbaijani control, an interim status for Nagorny Karabakh providing guarantees for security and self-governance, and the right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former places of residence.

The OSCE Minsk Group, comprising Russia, France and the United States, has mediated the conflict for many years without much progress.

Shootouts frequently occur on the border between Azerbaijan and Nagorny Karabakh, with Baku and Yerevan continuing to accuse each other of violating the ceasefire agreed in 1994.

U.S. President Barack Obama said in phone calls on Thursday to Armenia's Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan that "the moment has come for all the sides to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to take a decisive step towards a peaceful settlement."

http://en.rian.ru/world/20110624/164809088.html

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So do you think that a historic breakthrough will happen today in Kazan, Russia leading to an eventual peace treaty between the two nations? A resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue may also facilitate the establishment of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia, as Turkey has often considered the resolution of this conflict as a precondition to the establishment of relations with Armenia.

[hellheaven1987]

A breakthrough would still not guarantee the peace of Caucasus; in fact, even you give all of them independence there is still no peace in Caucasus (just look at Chechnya).

[Armenum]

I really think that any deal which doesn't ensure the full independence of Karabakh first should be rejected. It is Armenians that defeated, not only defeated but decisively crushed the Azeris who were oppressing a people in their own proclaimed borders. Karabakh won independence already with the blood of thousands of brave soldiers and those people's sacrifices should never be in vain.

The security belt around Karabakh should only be given back to Azerbaijan given Karabakh's full independence is ensured, anything less I do not think should be considered. Given the decisive nature that Armenia won the war, even negotiating such a peace settlement is a concession in itself.

I personally don't believe the Madrid Principles will be agreed upon in Kazan, because the positions of the two sides are far apart and the rhetoric from both sides is just evident of it. They will in my view, just sign a document (like the one Sochi) which declares a peaceful means to resolving the conflict and resolving it based on the core principles. I doubt any breakthrough.

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Some helpful maps:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[General David]

Lord Mov I agree with your statement, but it is ironic that it is always the Azerbaijani side that stalls the whole process and I assume it is because they want even more concessions. The truth is that we Armenians are making all the tangible concessions (i.e. giving back territory), whereas they are making illusory ones if any.

[Armenum]

Lord Mov I agree with your statement, but it is ironic that it is always the Azerbaijani side that stalls the whole process and I assume it is because they want even more concessions. The truth is that we Armenians are making all the tangible concessions (i.e. giving back territory), whereas they are making illusory ones if any.

Yes, they have completely unrealistic expectations, even considering that there's no chance they could take Karabakh back by force (confirmed by military experts) and also rather obvious given our positions and weapons, and the fact that it is very hard to invade and take over such a mountainous region, with a highly skilled and armed fighting force. Not to mention how much petrol dollars they would lose if they attacked - so its all just words to try to stir up something. In reality, Azeris have little leverage but pretend they do. Given we are the victors, they should be making concessions to us, it's just ridiculous that Azeris have let themselves get that out of hand.

[Admiral Piett]

There's no reason the Armenians should have to give up that territory if thats what the people want.

[PointOfViewGun]

There's no reason the Armenians should have to give up that territory if thats what the people want.

How come?

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Can't they simply exchange the lands of autonomous sections. It would make things much simpler.

[Admiral Piett]

Don't the people want to be part of Armenia, not Azerbaijan? It's why the war started in the first place.

[PointOfViewGun]

Don't the people want to be part of Armenia, not Azerbaijan? It's why the war started in the first place.

The land to be returned is the Azerbaijani land surrounding the Armenian enclave. So, no. In the context we're talking about the people of those occupied lands do not want to be part of Armenia.

[Admiral Piett]

The land to be returned is the Azerbaijani land surrounding the Armenian enclave. So, no. In the context we're talking about the people of those occupied lands do not want to be part of Armenia.

Oh okay, I see what you're saying. The Armenian occupied Azeri lands. Gotcha.

[PointOfViewGun]

Oh okay, I see what you're saying. The Armenian occupied Azeri lands. Gotcha.

It's the light brown/ yellow color that's on the large map Lord Mov posted, to be clear.

[Koelkastmagneet]

There's no reason for the land surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to not be handed back to Azerbaijan, as long as Nagorno-Karabakh is either independent or part of Armenia and this would be respected by Azerbaijan.

[General David]

There's no reason for the land surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to not be handed back to Azerbaijan, as long as Nagorno-Karabakh is either independent or part of Armenia and this would be respected by Azerbaijan.

I think there are some good reasons why at least some of the land surrounding Karabakh should remain under Armenian control. Historically, those lands were part of Karabakh and it was only during Soviet rule that Nagorno-Karabakh was reduced to its current borders and "integrated" to Azerbaijan.

Artsakh/Karabakh in the year 1000: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...000_map_de.png

Artsakh as an autonomous republic: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...thCaucasus.jpg

Another good reason is that Azerbaijan still control the Shahumyan region where there was a substantial Armenian population before the war, but this region does not yet appear to be a subject of the negotiations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahumyan

[Tiberios]

There's no reason for the land surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to not be handed back to Azerbaijan, as long as Nagorno-Karabakh is either independent or part of Armenia and this would be respected by Azerbaijan.

This.

[Their Law]

This could just be solved with a referendum in the disputed regions.

[Koelkastmagneet]

This could just be solved with a referendum in the disputed regions.

No, it couldn't.

Nagorno-Karabakh has voted for independence before, Azerbaijan ignored it. The surrounding regions are thoroughly depopulated.

[Their Law]

No, it couldn't.

Nagorno-Karabakh has voted for independence before, Azerbaijan ignored it. The surrounding regions are thoroughly depopulated.

Yes it would as it would once and for all provide a clear cut measure of which side has the democratic mandate. I'm not implying it would solve the dispute, but it would solve the question of who owns the land.

[Koelkastmagneet]

Yes it would as it would once and for all provide a clear cut measure of which side has the democratic mandate. I'm not implying it would solve the dispute, but it would solve the question of who owns the land.

There's no population to hold a referendum for, as I said, N-Kar has already voted for independence but the surrounding regions were depopulated during the war, a fair referendum can never be held.

Armenia has no choice but give back surrounding lands and agree for autonomous rights for Karabağ. That or another war.

As much as it appeals to you personally, there's no way Armenia will agree to surrendering N-Kar and neither will N-Kar be agreeing to surrendering it's independence.

[Armenum]

The 'security belt' was taken to secure a buffer zone around Karabakh. The territory was always said to be temporary and would be given back to Azerbaijan after Karabakh's independence was ensured.

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I repeat: Why not exchange the population of Armenian enclave with the Azerbaijani enclave and simply exchange the land? They're roughly the same size.

What enclaves are you talking about?

Armenia has no choice but give back surrounding lands and agree for autonomous rights for Karabağ. That or another war.

Why? The Armenian of Karabakh already fought a war for independence during the times that many nations were declaring independence, and they crushed the Azeris. Why would Karabakh ever agree to autonomous rights? And Azeris cannot threaten with war, because they will never be able to take back the territory militarily. The Armenian side is well trained, and well positioned in the highly mountainous regions. Military experts also agree with the fact that Azeris could not take it over, and that Armenians have the best fighting force in the Caucasus region. It would be like the failed invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviets except 20 times more the failure.


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Talks of Armenian, Azerbaijani, Russian Presidents continue for 2,5 hours

June 24, 2011 | 20:26
The meeting of Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian Presidents continues for 2,5 hours in Kazan, the Armenian News-NEWS.am correspondent reports.

The meeting started at 5:55 p.m. Yerevan time in the Kazan Kremlin.

This is the second meeting of Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev held this year.

[white-wolf]

Armenia has no choice but give back surrounding lands and agree for autonomous rights for Karabağ. That or another war.