The nuclear deal with India

[Marshal Qin]

I didn't see any topics on this but I was wondering what your thoughts were regarding it. It's a very confusing action from where I'm sitting.

1. The US president has basically said that its ok to not be a signatory of the non-proliferation treaty and still have nukes (thus strengthening the positions of Iran and North Korea)
2. It appears that rather than engaging the Chinese, the US is trying to contain them
3. The decision was made and a deal struck that seems to assume certain things are guaranteed:

a) Congress will rubber stamp the deal
b) Australia and the other nuclear fuel suppliers will toe the US line despite it being a major reversal of policy. (Australia has 40% of the worlds proven Uranium supplies)

4. Allies of the US don't need to be consulted before taking actions like this, regardless of how it effects them.

Australia and the other Uranium suppliers have consistently said that no state that is not a signatory of the NPT will be allowed to buy Uranium from them (India is not a signatory). The prime minister of Australia, when confronted with the news of the new deal, was clearly unprepared and restated this line. He then backed away from his statement a day later and started laying the foundation for a complete reversal of his earlier line, and Australia's uranium policy.

5. Pakistan, probably the US's most important ally in the 'war on terror' can not help but feel threatened, considering the tensions that exist between India and Pakistan.
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How is this a good idea? Sure, Australia stands to make a killing by selling more nuclear fuel, but WTF?

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2006/20060303/main1.htm

[removeduser_426582376423734]

In my opinion, Bush is letting the 'East' deal with their own problems themselves. India now has a large capability of waging war over Kashmir, as does Pakistan, and China - the economic rival to the Americans - are threatened, cut off, and powerless. Its a clever move, IMO.

[Perikles]

I couldn't understand it when I saw it the other day. All it does is strenghen India while threatening Pakistan and China. Pakistan is helping the USA in the war on terror though and doing this should not helps the USA's standing with the Pakistani's. They face a lot of critiscism at home for helping the US and will now recieve even more.
By doing this they are also on the one hand saying that NK and Iran can't have nuclear weapons but on the other hand are saying that India can.
IMO this will not help the USA in anyway and I can't really see them getting any benefits out of it, except the containment of China.

[Ummon]

Alliance with India is of tantamount strategic importance, if it can be achieved. Whatever the cost, it's worth it.

[removeduser_426582376423734]

Well, thats quite a comment. Care to elaborate, O patrician Ummon?

[Ummon]

India is the only other democracy in the world, outside the west (and Japan/Korea). This means, we either become friends, or fall together. It is important that we realize that Indian culture being complex and superior to western culture under many (non-technological, yet this may be temporary) aspects, this is an alliance of equals, and as such it should be treated. The two systems should learn from each other to both become better in those fields in which they already aren't.

[Perikles]

India is the only other democracy in the world, outside the west (and Japan/Korea). This means, we either become friends, or fall together. It is important that we realize that Indian culture being complex and superior to western culture under many (non-technological, yet this may be temporary) aspects, this is an alliance of equals, and as such it should be treated. The two systems should learn from each other to both become better in those fields in which they already aren't.

I agree that India is the West's obvious ally in Asia due to the form of government and rising international status. India can also be a threat to China and it's growing power in the region, but what do you think about the releationship between the US and Pakistan? It's like a giant nuclear love triangle....

[Mangalore]

Well, it is obviously an attempt in building up a potent ally in Eurasia that can go toe to toe with China and thus contain China in its endevours as its economic growth makes China a frightful opponent and her silent but increasingly strong influence on all kinds of aspects can be felt everywhere. India is also a bit jealous that China achieves growth rates ahead of India despite not being a democracy and well, India.

The further results will be however the alienation with Pakistan whose military regime has helped the US tremendously against the will of its people and now gets smacked openly into the face (India gets nuclear goods, Afghanistan gets assurance and military help, Pakistan gets a press conference and ... nothing)

There remain also several culturally and social aspects - namely caste system and mass poverty - that at this point not mean that one has to be all cozy about each other as there is still a lot of work ahead in that country and India actually has better things to do than waste money on building nukes.

The question is also wether India really wants to be brought into opposition to China. They are neighbors but still have a rather comfortable border given that none is so dumb waging war across the Himalayas so they are not really in conflict if neither side is willing to make things difficult and actually can also benefit from each other. They are one third of mankind afterall.


It's not a dumb move but it's kind of cheesy how one violator of all nuclear treaties suddenly becomes one's best buddy while the others are made evil villians striving for world domination. The joke is, if a nation has a potential to strive for world domination then it is India or China not North Korea or Iran. The latter can at best save their hides with nukes, the earlier have the potential for far higher ambitions. Not that India is evil or anything but applying doublestandards is always bad because you can annoy a whole lot of people with it.


additional note to foreposter: So far there is no proof Iran has ignored the NPT or any treaty for that matter. At this stage they are however starting to threaten to ignore it because they are being maltreated anyway. They so far only refuted an additional protocol they were forced to sign which is however not a part of any other treaty of any other nation (which is the reason they are pi**ed)
While the development in Iran is disturbing it is also disturbing to note that they current way practically leaves no options for Iran not to go down the nuclear path because it is pretty impossible to prove that something does _not_ exist in comparison to prove it does exist. As the "west" will not be satisfied whatever Iran tries to prove and remains suspicious it actually becomes more rational to get their hands on nukes than not, as it stands it might be the only deterrence they have to protect their own sovereignity. This is looked at it from their side of course, doesn't mean I'd like or condone it.

[Marshal Qin]

Its playing into Russia, China and India's hands though. India is much closer to Russia and China than it is with the US. The Indians will say 'thanks' and do whatever they want anyway. You wouldn't believe how many Indians are in China now - either doing business or in the universities. The whole India/China rivalry thing is over afaik, though with Indian nationalism on the rise, they may seek a more permanent deal on the disputed border territories. What I don't understand is the cavalier way the US is treating its allies, the short sighted approach it shows with regard to relations with China and the message it sends to other states that may want a nuclear program. How is disrespecting your allies going to win their support in any future adventures? How could effectively killing the NPT be a good thing? How is limiting Chinese growth going to benfit the US? I would have thought that the best way to beat China would be to encourage the development of a strong middle class that might one day challenge the rule of the communist party. What they do by trying to contain China just makes them more determined to compete, less likely to be sympathetic to western ideas and more likely to attampt to counteract the American move with their own alliances, weapons build up etc..

[The Fish]

As Marshal Qin says, a lot of ink has been spent writing about how the US is looking forward to its next possible conflict, i.e. one with China, and is building up India as a counterweight. However, no one has asked India whether it WANTS to play such a role. At least for now, India is much more interested in trading with China than antagonizing them.

That being said, I think the main reason the US is pursuing the deal, aside from the China angle, is economic. US companies stand to make billions from selling techonology and fuel to Indian power companies, and there may also be an attempt to undercut India's thorium fast breeder program. Since India doesn't have many natural uranium deposits, but a lot of thorium, it has built the first thorium powered nucelar plants in the world. Thorium is, in many ways, a better source of fuel, because its waste is far less radioactive than uranium, and it breaks down into U-233, which can be used as a fuel itself (hence the "fast-breeder" monicker). THe program has been continuing out of necessity for many years, and the deal may be an attempt to take a bit of the urgency out of this new type of nuclear plant, and eliminate a possible competitor.

That being said, I think the deal is a good idea for India, as well. The main objection people have to it is that it breaks with the NPT. But the NPT is pretty flawed, as it is. Countries like Iran and North Korea have totally ignored it, and countries like China and Russia have engaged in proliferation activities (see China's help to Pakistan's nucelar program) in violation of it. The other problem is it makes no distinction between non-nuclear countries. An unstable country like Iran or Pakistan is placed on the same level as a stable democracy like India. This fails to address the reality that India has a sterling record of non-proliferation, the rule of law, and civilian oversight over its nuclear facilities and weapons.

[Erik]

According to the NPT Iran is allowed to have nuclear power, nut India isn't.
This just shows that America doesn't care about the NPT.

[Ummon]

A treaty is written on paper, cultural and political similarities aren't. Remember that, besides, it's Indo-European stock, and Indo-European languages. When language and stock have common parts, much has already been done.

[Marshal Qin]

lol, I've done my bit then. My daughter is half chinese half Australian and my step son now says 'No Worries!'

[Ummon]

There is nothing wrong with chinese people and culture, and infact, China is another great culture of the world, of which I am myself a great fan. The problem is with consequences of Chinese politics, and surely we are less similar to the Chinese than we are to Indians.

[Erik]

There is nothing wrong with chinese people and culture, and infact, China is another great culture of the world, of which I am myself a great fan. The problem is with consequences of Chinese politics, and surely we are less similar to the Chinese than we are to Indians.

Given the violent history of Europe we might be better off supporting people who aren't that much like us.

[Ummon]

The history of the world is all equally violent, there are merely many ways to violence. There are two choices: surrendering to one's ancestors faults, or improving upon one's ancestors successes.

As I think positive solutions are always better, I am for upholding the good sides, and learning from those who know better. For one, Indian philosophy has produced Buddhism, and Hinduism itself is a very interesting and peaceful religion. The model of Gandhi is one we can all agree with.

On the other hand, while European history is violent (less than that of Islam though), it is us, and not any other, the ones who have produced Leonardo, Mozart, Kant, and all the wonders of modern science (just a few examples).

One has just to push in the right direction. Europe for the mind, far east for the Soul. This doesn't in any way change the fact that similarities make relationships easier.

[Marshal Qin]

Chinese politics is a creation of the west in many respects. Following the occupation of west and central China by the colonial powers, the opium war/boxer rebellion, and even the brutal Japanese occupation, the Chinese have become pretty paranoid about outiside interference in their affairs. In this respect they have a similar history to that of India. On top of that, both India (or at least the Northern half) and China were occupied by the Mongols. Of course, there is also Budhism which is another cultural link between the two cultures. The ethnic groups of SW China, Vietnam, India, Burma and Thailand are all very similar in appearance, and architecture, cultural festivals and family values etc are also all very close. Compare that with the similarities that India shares with the west which are....government (given to them by the British)...and....I can't think of anything else.

What the fish said earlier is true, though I still think its pretty short sighted. Short term economic gain vs long term partnership is no contest. I can't believe that the US will gain more by opposing China than they would in the long term by working with them. But then again, there is the pressure on US leaders for votes and the lobbying of special interest groups to conisder.

For my part, I pretty much thought the NPT was dead already as in recent years we've seen an increase in the number of broken treaties and/or bent rules that allow people to sidestep their obligations. It seems treaties are not worth the paper they are printed on these days. I'm sure China will counter the US moves in some way though, probably through more bilateral trade deals, security council vetos, product dumping to kill local US companies etc, but I was really concerned with the way the US treats its allies. No matter how strong they think they are, they'll need friends some time. If no-one trusts them however....

[Ummon]

The causes left aside, we have a present to deal with.