Osaka, 1614-15: could the tide be turned?

[Stellerex]

For those unfamiliar, although Tokugawa Ieyasu won at Sekigahara and made himself shogun in 1600, Hideyoshi's heir was allowed to live until 1615, when he and his followers were finished off in a climactic battle. Sekigahara is possibly the most frequented topic of all the Sengoku Jidai, this battle (or series of battles to be fair) alot less so.

Was it possible for the Toyotomi clan to stage a turnaround in their fortunes this late in the game? Didn't the clan still attract substantial sympathy throughout the country, both for its association with the taiko and dissident elements within the Tokugawa Shogunate? Wasn't this clan able to raise a loyalist force of substantial strength? Didn't this force show itself to be militarily competent, holding the Shogun's forces at bay in 1614 although finally succumbing in 1615? Insofar as the Tokugawa Shogunate was essentially a military dictatorship maintained by brute force, didn't any challenge to its military competency threaten the integrity of their regime as a whole?

[Ying, Duke of Qin]

The fall of Osaka was mostly due to Toyotomi's own political inexpertise. They filled in their own moat, remember?

[Stellerex]

The fall of Osaka was mostly due to Toyotomi's own political inexpertise. They filled in their own moat, remember?

Did they? I thought the Summer Campaign started because the Tokugawa were filling the moat, Hideyori protested that it wasn't part of the agreement, and Ieyasu responding that if they were to have peace, the moats weren't needed.

But yes, it appeared Hideyori had no special military or political skills. While he was alive, he served at best as an icon to rally around and had he won, it's doubtful whether his regime would've been an improvement over the Tokugawa.

[Last_Crusader]

Prima facie, yes, Hideyori could have been a major thorn in the side. He was able to muster 120,000 troops against the 145,00 [able out of 180,000] That Ieyasu had in 1614. When it came to the siege of Osaka, Ieyasu (incredibly) brokered the fraudulent peace claims by bullying his mother. The Tokugawa forces trained guns on the women's quarters to terrorise them, keeping up gunfire and shouting through the night so that nobody could sleep inside. Eventually Hideyori's mother pushed him into accepting the peace deal, whereupon Ieyasu made a show of disbanding his army (he didn't) and dismantled the defences of Osaka castle in the name of the peace agreement, leaving it with only one moat and wall. This caused the Osaka forces to decide to sally in summer of 1615, meeting the Tokugawa on the field to the south of their castle. In a nutshell, they lost. Still, it seems plausible that if the castle had its full defences at that time then Hideyori could have fared better; even despite this the summer battle did get perilously close, turned for good only upon the death of Sanada, a lord of the Osaka forces.

Source: S R Turnbull (1977) "The Samurai: A Military History", pp.251-65. Osprey: London.

[SanadaYuki]

I am curious : Why didn't Toyotomi dig up the moat ? since it's clear Tokugawa was not playing according to the rules....

[Ying, Duke of Qin]

I am curious : Why didn't Toyotomi dig up the moat ? since it's clear Tokugawa was not playing according to the rules....

He tried. Except, y'know, part of the terms of the first peace negotiation was that the moat was supposed to be dismantled.

Ieyasu: lololol who's going back on their word now? *attacks*

[Stellerex]

He tried. Except, y'know, part of the terms of the first peace negotiation was that the moat was supposed to be dismantled.

Ieyasu: lololol who's going back on their word now? *attacks*

Once the moat was filled, it's not so easy to dig up again. Perhaps the question is why Hideyori waited around until it was filled. Successful stalling tactics by Ieyasu?

[SanadaYuki]

As I recall (not an expert) the agreement was to fill the 1st moat but Ieyasu filled up to the 3rd moat..... and somehow Hideyori didn't notice? maybe there's an explanation somewhere?

[Ying, Duke of Qin]

Actually, quite the opposite. Ieyasu cannot afford to stall, because he's far older than Hideyori.

The agreement was that the outer defenses, including the main moat, was to be dismantled and filled in. This includes the famous Sanada-maru, which is that ramshackled thing Yukimura built to fight off the Tokugawa alliance in the summer.

Hideyori expected peace. He didn't quite "wait around," but in a few month, after most of the ronin has been scattered, Ieyasu began his work.

[SanadaYuki]

A successful Deceive the heavens to cross the ocean stratagem then...