Pakistan's ISI pressures the Haqqani network to negotiate with Karzai's government

[Babur]

The Haqqani network are based in Pakistan's FATA region and have close links with the Taliban.The pressure from the ISI for them to negotiate with the US may be the a means through which Pakistan can reassert its influence in Afghanistan like it did between 1996-2001.It would probably serve as a useful source of recruits to terrorist groups operating within Pakistan to strike its enemies too..

Daily brief: Pakistani intel pressures Haqqanis to negotiate: report
BY ANDREW LEBOVICH, MAY 18, 2011 Wednesday, May 18, 2011 - 9:14 AM Share


The Rack: Ron Moreau, "The Taliban After bin Laden," Newsweek.

By hook or by crook

The Journal reports that Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) is prodding the insurgent Haqqani network into peace talks with the Afghan government, resisting U.S. pressure to go after the group's strongholds in North Waziristan (WSJ). U.S. officials consider the Haqqanis one of Afghanistan's most violent and effective insurgent groups, and the increased efforts to target the Haqqanis, including drone strikes and concern about a cross-border raid, reportedly led worried Haqqani members to vacate their compounds in the North Waziristan capital of Miram Shah in the wake of the U.S. operation that killed Osama bin Laden.

continued

Afghan news sources also report that the ISI, working through current operatives or former director Hamid Gul, asked Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar to leave Pakistan for Afghanistan or a third country in recent days (Pajhwok, Tolo). U.S. senators from both parties yesterday questioned the several billion dollars in military aid given to Pakistan each year during a caucus briefing and a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, and Armed Services Committee chairman Sen. Carl Levin told reporters after the briefing that Pakistan should take concrete steps towards combating militancy, especially in fighting the Haqqani network, before receiving the aid (NYT, Bloomberg). During the briefing, Sen. John Kerry said Pakistan has four different probes into Osama bin Laden's death and how he was able to hide unnoticed in Abbottabad until he was killed by Navy SEALs on May 2 (ET). Pakistani security forces yesterday killed five alleged Chechen "suicide bombers," as they attempted to attack a Frontier Corps checkpoint near the city of Quetta (Dawn, Geo, ET, Daily Times). The group, according to officials, consisted of two men and three women. Five others were killed in Quetta when unidentified gunmen opened fire on a van (Dawn). And two Pakistani soldiers and 15 militants were reportedly killed in fighting on the outskirts of Peshawar when a group of nearly 100 fighters attacked a major checkpoint (NYT, AP, AFP, Reuters, AJE). Lonely at the top Longtime al-Qaeda figure Saif al-Adel has taken temporary control of al-Qaeda, according to Noman Benotman, a former commander in the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) and onetime acquaintance of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan (CNN, The News, Times). Citing militant sources and jihadist internet posts, Benotman says that al-Adel, who was previously al-Qaeda's military leader and was involved in the 1998 East Africa embassy bombings, was the choice of the six to eight al-Qaeda leaders present in Afghanistan and Pakistan; al-Adel fled to Iran after the fall of the Taliban, but is believed to have left the country for Pakistan sometime last year. According to al-Jazeera, a militant known as Mustafa al-Yemeni will direct operations for the group, while the Guardian claims that former al-Qaeda no. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri has been named director of international operations (Reuters, Guardian). And the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan have released a video threatening retaliation against the ISI and CIA for bin Laden's killing (AJE). Pakistani authorities yesterday announced the arrest in Karachi of a man they termed a "senior al-Qaeda operative," Mohammed Ali Qasim (also known as Ali Suhaib al-Makki), who they say operated with al-Qaeda leaders in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region, though U.S. officials described him as a mid-level operative and "not a household name" (CNN, McClatchy, Guardian, Reuters, WSJ, AP, Geo). An anonymous official later called al-Makki a mid-level operative as well, but said he is "Nonetheless... a very good catch" (Reuters). Pakistani officials also said that al-Makki, who was born in Yemen and reportedly arrested May 4, helped plan attacks against Saudi interests in Pakistan and is close to radical American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki (BBC). Greg Miller writes that the CIA used state-of-the-art high-altitude drones employing stealth technology to help track Osama bin Laden, deep inside Pakistani territory and outside of the "flight box" in which Pakistani authorities allow U.S. drones to operate (Post, AFP). The existence of the drone, reportedly an RQ-170, was revealed in 2007 after it was seen and photographed at Kandahar Airfield. And in other bin Laden news, the family of his youngest wife, the Yemeni Amal Abdulfattah, have demanded that Pakistani authorities repatriate her and her five children (AFP). Bloody Wednesday Up to 12 civilians have been killed in protests in the northern Afghan city of Taloqan in Takhar province after a night raid near the city killed four people NATO forces said were insurgents (BBC, AP, Reuters, AJE). Protesters said all four, including two women, were civilians. The AFP reports that the suicide bomber who killed Kandahar province police chief Khan Mohammad Mujahed last month was Mujahed's bodyguard; the two had known each other for more than a decade (AFP). An inquest into the shooting deaths of five British soldiers by an Afghan policeman in 2009 heard yesterday that the shooter was angry with his British trainers after they told him to wear his uniform cap, instead of a brown Afghan hat (Guardian). British prime minister David Cameron told parliament yesterday that he would withdraw 400 troops from Afghanistan this year, as part of the plan to pull all British troops out of Afghanistan by 2014 (Guardian, FT). The U.S. Army has charged a sixth person, Staff Sgt. David Bram, with involvement in the "kill team" that allegedly murdered three Afghan civilians and posed the bodies to make them look like combatants (NYT, AP). And four Afghan boys aged eight to ten, arrested under suspicion of being suicide bombers, claimed their innocence to the Times of London, and said that they had been beaten and endured electric shocks at the hands of the Afghan police (Times). Pathbreaker The Los Angeles Times today profiles Mina Habib, one of the small but growing group of female journalists in Afghanistan who face threats and family trouble to cover the news (LAT). Habib, the Times writes, helps shine light on issues affecting Afghanistan's "poor and voiceless."

http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts...gotiate_report

[The Noble Lord]

The Maulana Haqqani and his group is quiet organized and they are not under the influence of the ISI as it may seem to some. Their power-base is more in Khost and Paktia, Paktika with influence stretching into Ghazni as well.
Of course they closely related with the Waziris across the border into FATA and that is also one of their bases of operation. The thing is Haqqani group is part of the Afghan Taliban and quiet different to the Pakistani Taliban. The CIA and Afghan government tried in the past through some Pashtun tribal notables to pay off Haqqani so he would join the government side, according to the reliable sources he was offered 12 million dollars to switch and he didn't. Then they tried to assassinate him and to make his group disintegrate but it didn't work. The ISI influence on him was strong durin the 80s and the Afghan Jihad when ISI successfuly micro-managed many of the mujahedin groups, but after that Haqqani became more of independent leader and especialy since becoming one of the most prominent Taliban military commanders. He also enjoys close friendship with Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar and is one if his most trusted confidants. Plus, after what happened to Bin Laden it is highly unlikely that Haqqani would trust the ISI and their overtures!

[Babur]

The Maulana Haqqani and his group is quiet organized and they are not under the influence of the ISI as it may seem to some. Their power-base is more in Khost and Paktia, Paktika with influence stretching into Ghazni as well.
Of course they closely related with the Waziris across the border into FATA and that is also one of their bases of operation. The thing is Haqqani group is part of the Afghan Taliban and quiet different to the Pakistani Taliban. The CIA and Afghan government tried in the past through some Pashtun tribal notables to pay off Haqqani so he would join the government side, according to the reliable sources he was offered 12 million dollars to switch and he didn't. Then they tried to assassinate him and to make his group disintegrate but it didn't work. The ISI influence on him was strong durin the 80s and the Afghan Jihad when ISI successfuly micro-managed many of the mujahedin groups, but after that Haqqani became more of independent leader and especialy since becoming one of the most prominent Taliban military commanders. He also enjoys close friendship with Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar and is one if his most trusted confidants. Plus, after what happened to Bin Laden it is highly unlikely that Haqqani would trust the ISI and their overtures!

but the ISI probably protected Bin Laden, the fact he was within distance of Kakul Military Academy raises serious questions.

I am sure that the Haqqani network retains ties with the ISI, as long as he continues to support the Afghan Taliban

[The Noble Lord]

but the ISI probably protected Bin Laden, the fact he was within distance of Kakul Military Academy raises serious questions.

I guess that's open to further debate and discussion, it is questionable how much support he did receive from the ISI, if any, and why didn't they warn him about the impending assault.

I am sure that the Haqqani network retains ties with the ISI, as long as he continues to support the Afghan Taliban

Haqqani group has links and contacts with the ISI, they been friends since the 80s, but he trust the ISI as much as he trust the CIA or MI5. It was the ISI that set him up for the assassination attempt back in 2003 and after that there has been other difficulties that they had. The influence on the Afghan Taliban that they enjoyed once has been cut down so much that many prominent Afghan Talibs (Haqqani included) see the today's ISI as weak, unIslamic and pro-American, they see it as their enemy. Also taking into account that gallery of ISI generals and operatives that supported the Taliban in the 90s have been forcibly retired just two years ago. These "new" faces are doubtful and non-entities for an old fighter and schemer such as Haqqani!

[Babur]

I guess that's open to further debate and discussion, it is questionable how much support he did receive from the ISI, if any, and why didn't they warn him about the impending assault.

I am not sure if it is debatable, the fact that he was near to a military academy certainly suggests that he may have enjoyed their protection for a while.Had the Americans informed Pakistan of the operation, Bin Laden would be still alive.

Haqqani group has links and contacts with the ISI, they been friends since the 80s, but he trust the ISI as much as he trust the CIA or MI5. It was the ISI that set him up for the assassination attempt back in 2003 and after that there has been other difficulties that they had. The influence on the Afghan Taliban that they enjoyed once has been cut down so much that many prominent Afghan Talibs (Haqqani included) see the today's ISI as weak, unIslamic and pro-American, they see it as their enemy. Also taking into account that gallery of ISI generals and operatives that supported the Taliban in the 90s have been forcibly retired just two years ago. These "new" faces are doubtful and non-entities for an old fighter and schemer such as Haqqani!

The prime benefactor of aid from the CIA,ISI etc during the 1980s were Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, other groups such as the Durranis were less favoured than the Ghilzais whom he represented.

The Pakstani Taliban includes veterans from Afghanistan, it is perhaps likely that they have grown tired of being used by the ISI and thus have turned against them and their benefactors, the army.

[The Noble Lord]

I am not sure if it is debatable, the fact that he was near to a military academy certainly suggests that he may have enjoyed their protection for a while.Had the Americans informed Pakistan of the operation, Bin Laden would be still alive.

Well, I guess we don't know the whole truth now. He may have been supported but not by the upper echelons or even ISI didn't know he was there. The fact that military academy is there means nothing, the nature of Pakistan is that anybody could've bought that house and moved in, the privacy is assured as long as you keep low profile which he did.

The prime benefactor of aid from the CIA,ISI etc during the 1980s were Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, other groups such as the Durranis were less favoured than the Ghilzais whom he represented.

It's true that Hekmatyar was the prime benefactor from the massive US/Saudi/Pakistani aid to the mujaheddin simply because Pakistanis saw him to be the most radical and most friendly to them mujahedin leader. Out of 9 Peshawar parties it was the Hezbi-Islami and then Haqqani's group that were considered to be the most radical. As for the Haqqani himself, he is Ghilzai Pashtun himself!

[mrmouth]

Everything I have seen and read would suggest that while the relationship between groups like Haqqani and the ISI is a difficult one, it is integral to both entities. The recent Frontline documentary provided some solid proof through investigation and interviews with senior Taliban commanders that the Taliban would not be able to exist without the ISI, and is often micromanaged by the ISI. The ISI flexes their muscles when angered. But it also goes into facilitating arms shipments, etc.

That classic quote of "if they wanted to, they could arrest us all in half an hour" comes to mind.

The underreported CIA/SOF operation that has built really proficient Afghan paramilitary units that run the border, has put a serious hurting on the Taliban's ability to cross the border to the point that they dont really even try anymore during the day. The border units actively hunt the Taliban, and are good at what they do. They dont just guard the border.

It also has not been reported much, but in the period immediately after UBL's death, until now, the ISI has actively been arresting some fairly senior Taliban and AQ people. Of course that would appear to just be an act of appeasement, but it also could signal a shift in how the US is going to support Pakistan in the form of a results based support system.

[Babur]

Everything I have seen and read would suggest that while the relationship between groups like Haqqani and the ISI is a difficult one, it is integral to both entities. The recent Frontline documentary provided some solid proof through investigation and interviews with senior Taliban commanders that the Taliban would not be able to exist without the ISI, and is often micromanaged by the ISI. The ISI flexes their muscles when angered. But it also goes into facilitating arms shipments, etc.

That classic quote of "if they wanted to, they could arrest us all in half an hour" comes to mind.

The underreported CIA/SOF operation that has built really proficient Afghan paramilitary units that run the border, has put a serious hurting on the Taliban's ability to cross the border to the point that they dont really even try anymore during the day. The border units actively hunt the Taliban, and are good at what they do. They dont just guard the border.

It also has not been reported much, but in the period immediately after UBL's death, until now, the ISI has actively been arresting some fairly senior Taliban and AQ people. Of course that would appear to just be an act of appeasement, but it also could signal a shift in how the US is going to support Pakistan in the form of a results based support system.

On top of this, the drone attacks on targets within Pakistan are proving to be extremely effective.I might take their complaining about the infringement on Pakistani sovereignty seriously once they stop interfering in India and Afghanistan.

[Farnan]

Sadly we did support Haqqani in the Soviet-Afghan War (source is Ghost Wars).

If only Abdul Haq had survived maybe we wouldn't have these problems.

[Babur]

Sadly we did support Haqqani in the Soviet-Afghan War (source is Ghost Wars).

thanks going to order that book now

If only Abdul Haq had survived maybe we wouldn't have these problems.

probably would have made a better President than Karzai imo

Every 10 year old in Waziristan can tell you about the Pakistani army's dual role in the region. They bomb the militias that have stood up against the Pakistani Army's incursions into their homelands but to this day, they haven't bombed North Waziristan, the place where the Haqqanis and the Hekmatyars have been given sanctuary since 9/11.

they probably want to keep them as assets once the Americans withdraw

My friends from Waziristan tell me how right after 9/11, hordes of foreigners (Tajiks, Uzbeks, Chechens, Arabs, etc), flowed into the tribal belt on behalf of the Pakistani agencies. The people welcomed them with open arms as their "Mujahideen brothers" but very soon, the tribal elders of the Maseed (Mehsud) and others started becoming suspicious. The Pakistan agencies then, with help from the foreigners, killed 1,500 tribal elders in FATA from 2001 up till today to create a power vacuum which was to be filled in by these foreign militants.

well the IMU did find refuge there right?

Pakistan wants to control Kabul for two reasons - to attain strategic depth and to counter Pashtuns on both sides of the border who want a unified country by destroying this "Berlin Wall" (Durrand Line) that runs across their homeland without their consent or approval. It also wants to use these religious extremists in Kashmir to pressure India to come to the negotiating table (the Indians always talk but they never budge on Kashmir and hence Pakistan's efforts to change the status quo on the ground there). It's a dirty, dirty game..

yeah they want to prevent the emergence of Pashtunistan, and well the presence of extremists in Punjab (which is also where LeT is based) may have unwittingly aided the emergence of the Punjabi Taliban

And these things work with a pattern:

- The White House publishes a report that says that the Pakistani army is not "doing enough". The next day, the ISPR, the army's propaganda machine, reports that the military has bombed Mohmand (a region that is home to several tribal militias that are sometimes pro and sometimes anti-Pakistan but who do not operate in Afghanistan) and tells the "independent" Pakistani media that it has killed 50 militants. The "independent' media don't ask for any evidence, they just report it as fact. This is so that the flow of dollars doesn't stop. After all, the god Uncle Sam needs blood. So its servants give it to Him.

I wonder what Zaid Hamid said

- The US criticizes the ISI's dual-role and call for reforms and purges. Admiral Mike Mullen visits Islamabad. The next day, "unknown miscreants" burn 36 NATO tankers. Geez, I wonder where they came from!

And ordinary people have to suffer because of this dual role

This is so ridiculous that it really does make me believe that Americans are stupid (no offense, guys but you're being conned here and the whole world knows it!).

yeah well I am sure that some in Congress may agree that the State Department is being conned by Pakistan lol.

What you can do, it was realpolitik at its best. It was the Cold War and you support the enemies of your enemy. And what a enemies, the mujahedin were perfect fighters against the Soviets and Afghan Communists.
And Pakistanis who were responsible for channeling the funds to the 9 Mujahedin parties choose only the most radical and violent of them, the secular and pro-royalist parties were ignored and despised by the ISI
and the CIA in turn. And you right, Abdul Haq was a good guy indeed, but he got killed by the Taliban in October or November 2001.

Perhaps America should have done more to prevent the emergence of civil war in 1992

As well as creating more in the process. It is not a foolproof strategy by any means.

But it does work

Nope. However, the support of Pakistan's interest groups that operate solely against India is somewhat acceptable.

Why? and does that justify acts of terrorism then?

It is also gives considerable power to the Army and ISI, who are obviously as unaccountable as the politicians are (perhaps more so).This merely perpetuates the influence of the army in politics and foreign policy.

lolwut. I don't support the people who target Pakistanis.

And Americans?

[Primvs Sextvs Loverlord]

Every 10 year old in Waziristan can tell you about the Pakistani army's dual role in the region. They bomb the militias that have stood up against the Pakistani Army's incursions into their homelands but to this day, they haven't bombed North Waziristan, the place where the Haqqanis and the Hekmatyars have been given sanctuary since 9/11.

My friends from Waziristan tell me how right after 9/11, hordes of foreigners (Tajiks, Uzbeks, Chechens, Arabs, etc), flowed into the tribal belt on behalf of the Pakistani agencies. The people welcomed them with open arms as their "Mujahideen brothers" but very soon, the tribal elders of the Maseed (Mehsud) and others started becoming suspicious. The Pakistan agencies then, with help from the foreigners, killed 1,500 tribal elders in FATA from 2001 up till today to create a power vacuum which was to be filled in by these foreign militants.

Pakistan wants to control Kabul for two reasons - to attain strategic depth and to counter Pashtuns on both sides of the border who want a unified country by destroying this "Berlin Wall" (Durrand Line) that runs across their homeland without their consent or approval. It also wants to use these religious extremists in Kashmir to pressure India to come to the negotiating table (the Indians always talk but they never budge on Kashmir and hence Pakistan's efforts to change the status quo on the ground there). It's a dirty, dirty game..


And these things work with a pattern:

- The White House publishes a report that says that the Pakistani army is not "doing enough". The next day, the ISPR, the army's propaganda machine, reports that the military has bombed Mohmand (a region that is home to several tribal militias that are sometimes pro and sometimes anti-Pakistan but who do not operate in Afghanistan) and tells the "independent" Pakistani media that it has killed 50 militants. The "independent' media don't ask for any evidence, they just report it as fact. This is so that the flow of dollars doesn't stop. After all, the god Uncle Sam needs blood. So its servants give it to Him.

- The US criticizes the ISI's dual-role and call for reforms and purges. Admiral Mike Mullen visits Islamabad. The next day, "unknown miscreants" burn 36 NATO tankers. Geez, I wonder where they came from!


This is so ridiculous that it really does make me believe that Americans are stupid (no offense, guys but you're being conned here and the whole world knows it!).

[mrmouth]

This is so ridiculous that it really does make me believe that Americans are stupid (no offense, guys but you're being conned here and the whole world knows it!).

I have to believe that there is more going on behind closed doors. But really, Pakistan is too big to fail. And that is what drives this whole thing. Both sides know it. The US doesn't really have many plays aside from instituting an incentive based aid program.

[Babur]

I have to believe that there is more going on behind closed doors. But really, Pakistan is too big to fail. And that is what drives this whole thing. Both sides know it. The US doesn't really have many plays aside from instituting an incentive based aid program.

apparently those incentives aren't enough

[The Noble Lord]

What you can do, it was realpolitik at its best. It was the Cold War and you support the enemies of your enemy. And what a enemies, the mujahedin were perfect fighters against the Soviets and Afghan Communists.
And Pakistanis who were responsible for channeling the funds to the 9 Mujahedin parties choose only the most radical and violent of them, the secular and pro-royalist parties were ignored and despised by the ISI
and the CIA in turn. And you right, Abdul Haq was a good guy indeed, but he got killed by the Taliban in October or November 2001.

[Farnan]

What you can do, it was realpolitik at its best. It was the Cold War and you support the enemies of your enemy. And what a enemies, the mujahedin were perfect fighters against the Soviets and Afghan Communists.
And Pakistanis who were responsible for channeling the funds to the 9 Mujahedin parties choose only the most radical and violent of them, the secular and pro-royalist parties were ignored and despised by the ISI
and the CIA in turn. And you right, Abdul Haq was a good guy indeed, but he got killed by the Taliban in October or November 2001.

Hence why I wished he would have survived.

He had it all, he was a Pashtun, a hero of the Anti-Soviet War, a member of a religious but not fanatic group, a known independent (not an ISI or CIA stooge) and a man known to be accepting of the different ethnic groups of Afghanistan. He was also well enough known in the West he could have gotten support and known to be uncorrupt by Afghan standards.

Sadly, the ISI convinced the US not to support him till it was too late.

[The Noble Lord]

You right, he was among the most suitable Pashtun leaders to be involved in building the new Afghanistan, and he had all those qualities and attributes that you just mentioned. The problem was that
he was as such (not being a puppet of the ISI) he was mistrusted by them and when he crossed the border informed the Taliban who could not afford to have such Pashtun leader in their midst and they
immediately executed him. If you want to know more about Abdul Haq you should read book called 'Come back to Afghanistan' by Said Hyder Akbar whose father was close personal friend of Abdul Haq and he
was his godson in a way. There he talks precisely about what you just said above, the frustration and anger of the moderate and secular Pashtuns and Afghans that they were sidelined by the ISI with the green
light from the Americans which in turn allowed the Taliban takeover of the country and then later the influx and domination of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Even after 9/11 things started moving slowly and old habits
died hard, it took some persuasion on the behalf of Abdul Haq and his group that they should receive help from the US and Europeans because they could go into Afghanistan immediately and organize the Pashtuns!

[Babur]

You right, he was among the most suitable Pashtun leaders to be involved in building the new Afghanistan, and he had all those qualities and attributes that you just mentioned. The problem was that
he was as such (not being a puppet of the ISI) he was mistrusted by them and when he crossed the border informed the Taliban who could not afford to have such Pashtun leader in their midst and they
immediately executed him. If you want to know more about Abdul Haq you should read book called 'Come back to Afghanistan' by Said Hyder Akbar whose father was close personal friend of Abdul Haq and he
was his godson in a way. There he talks precisely about what you just said above, the frustration and anger of the moderate and secular Pashtuns and Afghans that they were sidelined by the ISI with the green
light from the Americans which in turn allowed the Taliban takeover of the country and then later the influx and domination of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Even after 9/11 things started moving slowly and old habits
died hard, it took some persuasion on the behalf of Abdul Haq and his group that they should receive help from the US and Europeans because they could go into Afghanistan immediately and organize the Pashtuns!

Well a strong and independent Afghanistan wouldn't be in Pakistan's interests would it?