Depopulation of Eastern Europe

[Radosław Sikora]

All countries of EE experience depopulation problems.
For example, according to the last Lithuanian Census, finished a couple of days ago, now Lithuania has only 2,9mln people, that is 800 000 people less than 2 decades ago (source). It means that in the last 2 decades Lithuania lost 22% of its population.
Lithuania is a small country and such huge scale of a demographical regress threatens it seriously. But also bigger countries have their problems. Ukraine lost 6 mln people in 16 years, that is 12% of its population. Russia lost 7 mln people in 17 years, that is almost 5%. And although Russia lost smaller per cent of its population, but IMO it is in worse situation than Ukraine. It is much larger country than Ukraine, and is much less populated. Particularly its eastern territory might be in danger.
Bulgaria is also in a big trouble. It lost 1,4 mln people (15,5% of population) in 21 years.

Reasons of depopulation are well known. Low fertility rate + huge emigration.

But what do you think, what will be results of these processes? Will Russia lose Siberia to China? Will Lithuanian nation disappear? And what about Bulgaria?

BTW, the newest data for Poland will be known very soon. Right now we have a census.

[Gromovnik]

I must say that I'm shocked with the Lithuanian part. 22% in 20 years is huge. What's going on there, I always thought that they're doing relatively OK?

[Veliky Kaiser Theos]

I thought that Eastern Europe was going well since the fall of the USSR.

[Menelik_I]

I must say that I'm shocked with the Lithuanian part. 22% in 20 years is huge. What's going on there, I always thought that they're doing relatively OK?

I thought that Eastern Europe was going well since the fall of the USSR.

Doing well include liberty of travel, a thing they didn't had in the past, so it is normal that lots of people are leaving in search of a better life

[Enemy of the State]

I thought that Eastern Europe was going well since the fall of the USSR.

It is doing well, that is why people aren't having kids.

[removeduser_487563287433]

It is doing well, that is why people aren't having kids.

Ding ding ding!

The Eastern Europeans are getting rich working abroad, for a time, and now have greater access to education, family planning and prosperity.

[Nikitn]

Ding ding ding!

The Eastern Europeans are getting rich working abroad, for a time, and now have greater access to education, family planning and prosperity.

Wrong. Eastern Europeans have less kids exactly because they aren't doing well, they don't have the means to give the kids an optimal life.

In the Communist times families did have access to prosperity (at least financial stability), family planning and education.

High levels of education and Economic Prosperity have a negative impact on birth rates. But it's not a good sign, it's a symptom(a bad one). Just like the rise in land rents was a symptom of economic prosperity in 1820's Britain(added to the Corn Laws of course).

No, it doesn't work like that. You don't have more kids the poorer and less educated you are. Once populations reach a level past Africa-style poverty and go into the material world. Then you have kids when you're ready, ie when you have a stable life.

Right now the fertility rate all around EE is extremely low.

But what do you think, how depopulation of EE will affect a future of this part of Europe? Should we expect some changes of borders? For example, should we expect that Russia try to increase its manpower by incorporating ethnic Russian territories in Ukraine and Belarus?

Nothing will happen.

Or should we expect the rise of xenophobia and nationalism in countries like Lithuanian, Serbia, Bulgaria, Poland and other EE countries? What do you think?

Fixed.

[alhoon]

I must say that I'm shocked with the Lithuanian part. 22% in 20 years is huge. What's going on there, I always thought that they're doing relatively OK?

I thought that Eastern Europe was going well since the fall of the USSR.

Ehh... what?
I thought only Russia was finally starting to go better since the fall of USSR.

Eastern Europe isn't because of low fertility it's because of immigration. In Greece there are a lot Eastern European women, many of them working as prostitutes.

[NotYetRegistered]

Dibs on Lithuania once it's empty.

Anyways, interesting.

[il padrino]

Serbia needs to be mentioned(unfortunately),with its extremely negative birth rate,and one of the oldest populations in the world.

One married couple in Serbia has 0.81 children on average, and to renew the population, at least four children per family is recommended.


In Serbia during 2008, 30 thousand less children were born that is needed to maintain the natural reproduction exchange of the population. Serbia currently has the lowest birth rate in Europe, reports the Monday issue of Belgrade’s daily “Vecernje Novosti”, stating data from the Ministry of Social Politics.
In the year 2100, central Serbia will have only 2.1 million citizens, and Vojvodina will have 800 thousand citizens, and in Kosovo the number, according to current trends, should be 4.4 million. So we will be a national minority in our own country.
They stress that the number of children per couple has fallen from 4.1 to 0.81 and that the darkest predictions by experts show that, if this continues, Serbs will biologically die out in 500 years time. The Belgrade paper states the evaluation by the birth rate expert professor Biljana Spasic, according to which the number of marriages during the last two decades has fallen by one quarter, and that one third of marriages do not have descendants. Currently around 800 thousand citizens are seeking medical assistance in order to become parents. At the same time, data shows that around 200 thousand abortions occur per year in Serbia.
Kosovo is catching up to Serbia in population
“In the year 2100, central Serbia will have only 2.1 million citizens, and Vojvodina will have 800 thousand citizens, and in Kosovo the number, according to current trends, should be 4.4 million. So we will be a national minority in our own country” says Spasic.
During the last 17 years, Serbia has lost half a million citizens without Kosovo, according to ‘Vecernje Novosti’ who report data from the experts from the state statistics institute. The statistics say that in 1991 there were slightly more than 7.8 million citizens in the country, And today there are slightly more than 7.3 million.
They added that it is concerning that the number of Serbian citizens is falling so fast, and that in order to have a positive birth rate, every family should have at least four children.

http://dalje.com/en-world/low-birth-...0-years/271376

The situation is not much better in some of the other ex-Yu states.

[Acco]

The population in Macedonia has been growing at a very slow (but consistent) rate, so depopulation is thankfully not one of our problems.

[il padrino]

The population in Macedonia has been growing at a very slow (but consistent) rate, so depopulation is thankfully not one of our problems.

You can thank your Albanian citizens for that

[hellheaven1987]

When this come, I always forcefully enact Health Care in my Victoria II game.

[Thorn777]

Its so poor 22% of baby's starve to death.

[Exarch]

time to implement forced mating between all the eastern european nerds and supermodels;

or failing that, i would be more than happy to impregnate all the eastern european maidens

[Menelik_I]

time to implement forced mating between all the eastern european nerds and supermodels;

or failing that, i would be more than happy to impregnate all the eastern european maidens

We can count on you Exarch

[hellheaven1987]

or failing that, i would be more than happy to impregnate all the eastern european maidens

Sure, I would ask my master to bless you for creating more warriors for us.

[Claudius Gothicus]

High levels of education and Economic Prosperity have a negative impact on birth rates. But it's not a good sign, it's a symptom(a bad one). Just like the rise in land rents was a symptom of economic prosperity in 1820's Britain(added to the Corn Laws of course).

[il padrino]

High levels of education and Economic Prosperity have a negative impact on birth rates.

Yes,but these catastrophic numbers are certainly not due to that.

[Claudius Gothicus]

Yes,but these catastrophic numbers are certainly not due to that.

Emigration due to lack of opportunities. It's a matter of analyzing the impact of events and knowing how to identify the right causes to the prevalent effects.

I was arguing against those who seem to see the lack of births as a good thing just for the sake of associating it to economic prosperity...

In the Baltic countries and in many Western European countries economic prosperity and high levels of education are the cause in others, the lack of actual opportunities, the inaction of the State regarding the issue and the ability to escape to nearby States where there's much more chances to prevail.