What will happen to Egypt after this revolution?

[Zvornik]

We all know about the uprising in Egypt. I actually have a few questions
1. Why exactly are the people revolting? (I know it's about the current president/dictator of Egypt, but what did he do and why do they dislike him?)
2. What does the future look like for Egypt if the revolution succeeds?

please excuse my ignorance on this topic. I'm just very curious

[ShADoW]

I can answer the first one, but I have no idea for the second one, so basically the reasons are:
-High levels of unemployment/ economical problems
-corruption
-terrible social conditions/population growth
-Gov't opression
- Negligence (such as the New Years Church bombing)
-Some are just pissed off that Egypt serves Western interests and favorable towards Israel

Edit: There may be a chance that Mohammad ElBaradei might come in power should the revolution be successful.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_ElBaradei

[Manuel I Komnenos]

To make it easier, this guy has been in power for 30 years.
Even if he'd done everything right which he hasn't, people would be tired of him anyway.

[PointOfViewGun]

We all know about the uprising in Egypt. I actually have a few questions
1. Why exactly are the people revolting? (I know it's about the current president/dictator of Egypt, but what did he do and why do they dislike him?)
2. What does the future look like for Egypt if the revolution succeeds?

please excuse my ignorance on this topic. I'm just very curious

Hopefully, what the people wants will happen. The people who fuel these protests seems to be university students or graduates. That should be a positive factor.

Also, nothing against you, but if a certain mod is really serious about doing his job he'd close this thread.

[Zvornik]

Also, nothing against you, but if a certain mod is really serious about doing his job he'd close this thread.

lol don't call the cops on me...

[Wegen7 die Große]

Its the Americans trying to spread there tyranny to another country. Obviously if he has managed to run for 4 (or 5 I can not remember) terms then he obviously must be doing something right that the people must appreciate.

[Farnan]

Its the Americans trying to spread there tyranny to another country. Obviously if he has managed to run for 4 (or 5 I can not remember) terms then he obviously must be doing something right that the people must appreciate.

This was the most idiotic post I've seen in a long time.

You do kow people didn't vote him in, right? Well real life people didn't vote him in.

[Heinz Guderian]

This was the most idiotic post I've seen in a long time.

You do kow people didn't vote him in, right? Well real life people didn't vote him in.

i think you'll find he has as much legitimacy as Karzai when it comes to elections.

[Farnan]

i think you'll find he has as much legitimacy as Karzai when it comes to elections.

Hey Karzai stole that election fair and square...

[Odovacar]

I Obviously if he has managed to run for 4 (or 5 I can not remember) terms then he obviously must be doing something right that the people must appreciate.

The Kim Il family runnig North Korea also must be doing some great thing to remain in power so long. Goddamn geniuses.

[Inhuman One]

Looks like they might bring themselves a new kind of crusade if the new government gets too harsh on the christians living there.

Seems to be riots all over the place in muslim countries though.

[Ludicus]

What will happen to Egypt after this revolution?

I've asked myself if I'm a pessimist or just being realistic.

a)The establishment of a fundamentalist regime in Egypt.
b)a domino effect, the establishment of fundamentalist regimes in the Middle East.
c) serious confrontations with most of the world.
d) A new iron curtain.

[Border Patrol]

Muslims hate each other too much to unite for global domination.

[Dr. Oza]

Looks like they might bring themselves a new kind of crusade if the new government gets too harsh on the christians living there.

Why would you think they're being harsh on christians?

[★Bandiera Rossa☭]

There are many things which could happen, here are but a few:
1. Egypt remains a U.S. puppet. - ElBaradei is basically a Western-style liberal, chances are that he would not do much to gain actual independence from the U.S.
2. Revolution turns Socialist - It is possible, there are quite a few red flags in the crowds.
3. Islamic Brotherhood comes to power - may pass some reactionary reforms, but will be unlikely to maintain power in the long term.
4. Military Coup - Possible, but many soldiers are supporting the protesters. I don't know if it is unified enough to take power.

[Encino_Man]

First off, should this not be moved to the Political Mudpit?

Now:

There are many things which could happen, here are but a few:
1. Egypt remains a U.S. puppet. - ElBaradei is basically a Western-style liberal, chances are that he would not do much to gain actual independence from the U.S.
2. Revolution turns Socialist - It is possible, there are quite a few red flags in the crowds.
3. Islamic Brotherhood comes to power - may pass some reactionary reforms, but will be unlikely to maintain power in the long term.
4. Military Coup - Possible, but many soldiers are supporting the protesters. I don't know if it is unified enough to take power.

There is also the possibility of hostilities reopening with Israel though I've yet to see anything about Egypt's military doing anything toward Israel unless I've just missed the memos from the past several years or more. And to go in-line with your #4, I don't see the military pulling off a coup. In fact, if the Mubarak supporters and whatever security forces that instigate violence against the anti-Mubarak movement, I think the military might step in to defend the anti-Mubarak protesters more. I get the feeling that they wouldn't really defend the pro-Mubarak crowd since it seems they came in swinging from nowhere.

Also I've also read a lot about the Muslim Brotherhood possibly injecting some sort of fundamentalist policies if they take power but not holding out in the long run.

This has been making wonder however, what's been going on in Iran.

[Manuel I Komnenos]

We could also have a new Iran there.

[Encino_Man]

That or Mubarak and his supporters instigate a bloody crackdown on tomorrow's scheduled protest and things just get much much worse.

[Ciabhán]

As this thread isn't about history and is more guessing about the political future I'll be moving it to the Academy.

-Ciabhan

[RollingWave]

I've asked myself if I'm a pessimist or just being realistic.

a)The establishment of a fundamentalist regime in Egypt.
b)a domino effect, the establishment of fundamentalist regimes in the Middle East.
c) serious confrontations with most of the world.
d) A new iron curtain.

We could also have a new Iran there.

No, just no, this is basically saying that the US could turn into a Constinutional Monarchy because it's also Anglo-Saxon.



Anyone who thinks that Egypt could turn into Iran is basically saying roughly as ridiculas things as the Pope rules over all Christian Churches. (Whether they are Catholic / Protestine / Orthodox )


And really, this board is talking about the past, not the future.

I guess then We should draw some things from the past .

Egypt has been one of the most centralized governed area in the entire western world throughout it's history (only China is really more seriously centralized). obviously helped by the fact that it's population is highly concentrated along the Niles.

It has always been one of the more secular areas of the Islamic world, the fact was that it did not turn predominantly Muslim until the 11th to 12th century or so despite being one of the first major areas to fall to the Rise of the Arabs, and even today it still has a pretty sizable population of Coptic Christians (Around 10%) . The Muslim Brotherhood has some slightly worrying trend in it's rheotric but has never really went into armed rebellion and such, one can safely assume that even if they end up dominanting the new government they won't go all Taliban.

Juding from all these, we can essentially assume that

A. it won't turn into a theocracy.

B. It won't fragment into civil war.


The real danger is military coups. Since the abolishment of it's Monarchy military strongmen have ruled the country and they in reality control Egypt more than any other elements. If the new government turns out to be ineffective there's a strong chance we just fall back to a military autocracy again. but then we're just basically returning to the current point.

The upside is that they turn more like Turkey, where the threat of military coup still exist and the ruling party have some worrisome pro-islamic rhetoric at times but generally remains firmly secular with a strong march towards modernization.