The evolution of births in Europe and its immediate environment: what lessons geopolitical?
By Laurent Chalard *, 1 January 2008
* PhD student at the University of Paris-Sorbonne. Lecturer in Geography at the University of Valenciennes.
Changes in the number of births can have geopolitical consequences? The study framework for countries with the highest birth of the European Union and its neighbors: Turkey, Russia and Ukraine, and countries bordering the Mediterranean, from Morocco to Syria.
The three countries that have and will have the number of births the most important in 2030 are outside the EU, and thus they fall into the latter will necessarily be the first place, they want to legitimately translate politically.
THE NUMBER OF BIRTHS in France has exceeded that of Germany in 2000, yet this fact has gone unnoticed at INSEE [1] and thus in the press, which was essentially satisfied with the increase in fertility, but no question about that. Moreover, this ignorance of a fact as important politically led to the Treaty of Nice during the reform the number of lanes at the European Council by maintaining the status quo between the four most populous countries, while the weighting no longer justified fully in terms of population figures [2]. The aim of this paper is to show how changes in the number of births may have geopolitical consequences, making a return over the last fifty years (since 1948) and projecting into the future (until in 2030). The study framework for countries with the highest birth of the European Union and its neighbors: Turkey, Russia and Ukraine, and countries bordering the Mediterranean (from Morocco to Syria).
1. The link between birth size and geopolitical
The link between population change and geopolitics has been the subject of various studies [3], and especially the reference book by Gérard-François Dumont on "the laws of geopolitics populations" [4]. Nevertheless, the link between number of births and geopolitical justifies further analysis. Indeed, among the four factors of population growth (with the deaths, immigration and emigration) is the number of births. However, the volume of births in a country of a year is, ceteris paribus, approximately [5] to the workforce that will be on the job market after three decades (except mass migration), infant mortality is residual in developed countries and low in most emerging countries (for example, it is 31 deaths of infants per thousand births in 2006 in Algeria [6]), with the exception of the least developed countries. Consequently, the number of births is often a more relevant indicator to determine the future strength of a country that the number of people that can be raised mainly through inheritance or migration. It provides the most updated information possible, unlike the total population of a country that is a mixture of diverse heritages. For example, two countries may have the same population, but if one has twice as many births as the other, their respective populations future will certainly not be the same as their geopolitical weight.
A higher number of births in volume may be related to several factors:
. demographic inheritance that results in a certain number of women of childbearing age,
. the fertility rate,
. immigration of people of reproductive age, resulting in a higher level of births, a phenomenon that has played and continues to play a significant role in the volume of births in the U.S. [7] or in the Ile-de-France .
A higher volume of births has several advantages for a developed country:
. an increase in the number of consumers,
. an important future workforce,
. greater potential for innovation, the more young people, the more innovative people increases [8]
. a military reserve ...
Accordingly, at equivalent level of development, changes in birth rates may have important consequences on the hierarchy of the country. A country that outnumbers births of another is likely to be thirty years after a higher GDP, if the development gap do not change significantly for other reasons.
A volume of births higher for a poor country can have the same consequences, but also many negative consequences if policies greatly hinder the economic dynamics not improving the state of law or by favoring a cash economy:
. it may be favorable to the protest movement in all its forms (such as ultra-conservative democratic or socialist) and thus lead to revolutions, especially when the government is authoritarian,
. it can cause waves of emigration to countries offering better opportunities,
. it can lead to the impoverishment of the population, income to be shared among more people.
It is therefore necessary to consider the practical link between changes in the volume of births and geopolitics, although it must be wary of an absolute determinism, the evolution of births as an explanatory factor among other developments geopolitical, but that should not be underestimated or simply ignored, as demonstrated by Gérard-François Dumont.
2. The post-war: 1948-1970: birth differentials favor Russia
Consider, for Europe and its immediate environment, the evolution of births since 1948, when the first international demographic data provided by the UN [9], and its geopolitical consequences.
In 1948, the overall ranking of countries studied by number of births is consistent with that of the first half of the twentieth century, all European countries (as well as Western Europe Eastern) experiencing a baby boom after the concomitant World War II. The number of births increases immediately from third on average [10]. The maximum number of births in Russia, due to historical legacy, 2.7 times higher than the next country, not to mention the rest of the USSR (including Ukraine), while infant mortality is still relatively strong. The predominance of the Russian population was not unimportant role in this country during the Second World War. Germany, ranked second in 1948 by the number of births, and enjoys a favorable factor in the dramatic recovery of West Germany during the Thirty Glorious Years [11]. Italy, which is at the same level as Germany births in 1948 [12], the potential labor also plays an important role in the country's economic takeoff in the years 1960-1970. For cons, the United Kingdom found only in fourth position, which contributes to its relative economic decline in the post-war compared to other European countries. France ranks only fifth place, particularly because of the legacy of a very depressed fertility since the late eighteenth century [13], which has greatly burdened its positioning on the international stage [14]. Among the country developing studied, only Egypt and Turkey are at the level of France, but the number of births in perspective because infant mortality is much higher, so an equal number of births was in fact an imbalance in favor of developed countries. Algeria has 2.5 times fewer births than France.
Following the demographic renewal following the Second World War, the birth rate remains at a high level for over twenty years in Western Europe. Unequal changes in the number of births between 1948 and 1970 are mainly from the historical, fertility differentials being felt not only partially [15]. It was a slight increase in Germany (many generations of the 1930s come of reproductive age) and Spain (which has a higher fertility). UK passes the steady decline in Italy. France is slightly higher. In Eastern Europe, births decreased. The sharp decline in Russia and to a lesser degree in Ukraine, is linked to an unbalanced age structure because of the Stalinist purges and the Second World War, so many generations of reproductive age much less numerous, and an early decline in fertility (in 1970 it is already below the replacement level). The same situation is found in Poland [16]. Meanwhile in the Third World relative, the number of births increased substantially thanks to advances in medicine made by Westerners, resulting in reduction of maternal and child health. For example, about 100 000 women, only 50 000 came of childbearing age before the demographic transition (because one in two children died before reaching that age), 80 000 now arriving at that age, even to Fertility equal volume births increases automatically. Algeria is a typical case, births almost doubled in twenty years, the countries benefiting from earlier advances of Western medicine, through French colonization [17]. In Egypt, births rose by one third. In Turkey, the phenomenon is identical, but we do not have reliable figures to measure it at this time.
In 1970, the overall number of births by the countries studied Russia remains in the lead, but now to Egypt, which however has a child mortality rate still high, putting it into practice in Germany (West and East). Among the countries of Western Europe, the German power is obvious. She is ahead substantially in number of births the United Kingdom and Italy are elbow to elbow, France following slightly behind. Further, there is the Ukraine (then part of the USSR), followed by Spain and Algeria (but its position is relative to the same reasons that Egypt).
Changes in the number of births in various European countries 1948-1970
Russia, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Poland, etc..
3. 1970-1990: the collapse of Western Europe and the rise of third countries
Under the effect of several concurrent phenomena: the liberalization of contraception, abortion legalization, economic crisis, the rise of individualism ... the fertility of Western Europe collapsed in a decade [18] passing substantially below the replacement level, bring with it a significant drop in births, particularly in some countries succeed in the reproductive age cohorts born during the Second World War. The fall is very strong in both countries of southern Europe (Italy, Spain), with a decrease in others. It is lower in Germany, UK and France, three countries that benefit during this period it is true of a sensitive immigration. These divergent trends are not without consequences on the economic performance of these countries. For example, low economic performance of Italy compared to France and the United Kingdom over the last ten years can be explained in part as the first manifestations of births significantly lower compared to these two countries thirty years. For cons, the link does not hold true for Spain, whose economic dynamism, related to a catching-up effect and a real estate boom fueled in part from abroad, more than offset the negative effects of declining population, confirming that there is no absolute determinism.
In the years 1970 and 1980, the fall in births is not as strongly communist countries because of a pronatalist policy. Indeed, those countries affected by a fall in their fertility as in Western Europe from the 1960s, reacted in the 1970s by more or less coercive policies that allow the continuation of fertility at the threshold replacement level and thus provide approximately maintain the volume of births. In Russia, the number of births increased slightly [19], due to non-Russian populations in the higher fertility, while in Ukraine, where fertility was already low, births fell by 9%.
In third world countries studied, the number of births continues to rise, despite the onset of fertility decline due to an extremely young age structure. Egypt is the fastest growing countries, with 1.2 million births in 1970 and 1.7 million in 1990, an increase of 45%. Algeria is also increasing substantially with 600,000 births in 1970 and 775,000 in 1990, up nearly a third. There is some correlation between large generations born in the 1980s and two current geopolitical phenomena: the rise of Islamism and the increase of emigration in the countries concerned. Indeed, given the lack of economic development, these countries are unable to provide a future to many generations who have two choices: exile or denial.
In 1990, if the overall hierarchy does not change hardly, cons by differences between countries evolve. As in 1948 and 1970, Russia continued to dominate Egypt, but the gap has narrowed significantly, Turkey strongly distance the fourth of Germany, who was still at par with it in 1970. The latter precedes a group of three countries at the same level. The United Kingdom is in fifth position as in 1970, with a stable position. Algeria is in sixth place, slightly ahead of France. The Ukraine is 100,000 births behind Italy and ahead of retrograde three places, closely followed by Poland and now Morocco.
Evolution of births in European countries and South between 1970 and 1990
Russia, Egypt, Turkey, Germany, United Kingdom, Algeria, France, Ukraine, etc..
4. The current situation (1990-2005): the collapse of births in the former communist countries
In Western Europe, 1990-2005 appear uneven developments across countries in a context of persistently low fertility. Births decreased significantly in the United Kingdom and Germany, reflecting the declining birthrate and the influx of smaller generations of childbearing age, slightly more in Italy due to massive immigration. By cons, births are up slightly in France, which has regained its fertility [20], and strong growth in Spain, linked to massive immigration [21] and the arrival of childbearing age in recent generations numerous. In the formerly communist countries (Russia, Ukraine as Poland or Bulgaria [22]), finds himself a widespread collapse of births, related to the political and economic collapse at the end of welfare, fear the future ... This decline is expected burdening the prospects for recovery in second-superpower Russia [23]. In southern countries studied, occurs a stabilization or a slight decline in births, as fertility has continued to fall sharply, but the phenomenon is uneven across countries. In Algeria, births increased from 775 000 to 703 000 because of the collapse in fertility. In the two other major population, births remained stable, rising slightly in Egypt, because fertility decreases even more slowly to 3 children per woman (from 1.7 to 1.8 million) and will stabilize in Turkey (from from 1.4 to 1.36 million), where fertility has declined most.
The overall birth in 2005 shows that the three heavyweights are now outside the European Union, and dominate the first country in the latter, France, which has over 600 000 births gap Turkey, however, the third little more populated, the Chicken French at the end of each annual demographic report appearing slightly shifted [24]. Egypt today is the heavyweight of the region, ahead of Russia and Turkey, who are neck and neck. This means that the entry of Turkey [25] or even of Russia into the European Union would make these countries the de facto leader of the continent. In addition, two of these countries are Muslims, implying that without economic development, Islamist reservoir, especially in Egypt, is very important for the coming decades. Behind, France has imposed against the UK and especially Germany, which is now only seventh and is now exceeded by Algeria, although 2.5 times less populated, showing the extent German birth rate of the last thirty years. This decline in birth rates in Germany could contribute thirty years of the transition economies of the French and United Kingdom to Germany, which would be a major turnaround and a return to the situation of the nineteenth century [26]. For Algeria, the decline observed shows that, normally, the reservoir of immigration and potential candidates for the Islamists should be reduced slightly in the coming decades. Italy comes in eighth position, and remains the same as Morocco, whose potential immigration should remain the same in the coming decades.
Number of births in European countries and South in 1990 and 2005
Egypt, Russia, Turkey, France, United Kingdom, Algeria, Germany, Italy, etc..
5. Foresight 2030: Egypt, Russia and Turkey at the head of births, France fourth?
The foresight exercise in demography is always risky and should be taken with caution because by definition the future fertility behavior are not totally predictable, especially the breaks. Nevertheless, we have some elements that they are already sure: the number of women of childbearing age, the current fertility rate, the pattern of demographic transition, and for estimating the future number of births by country under different assumptions of fertility in the medium term.
Given the differences in the number of births in 2005 among the top three and the fourth, it is unlikely that in the medium term (2030), a new country comes invite themselves into the top rankings. For cons, the current classification may change and especially the differences increase.
It appears likely that Egypt will see its number of births to stabilize gradually as the continuing decline of fertility, but it should remain at a high level, given the achievements of the last thirty years, Unless a drastic reduction in fertility. Accordingly, it might be in first or second position in 2030, everything will depend on the Russian enigma.
Russia could even point in mind because the generations that will come of reproductive age are more numerous (the pyramid is flawed). Everything will depend on the evolution of fertility, if maintained at current levels, the number of births will be more important than in France or the United Kingdom, but little, falling below one million. By cons, if it stands up (Putin's government has passed laws in 2006 to increase the birth rate), Russia will remain the giant European population (with nearly two million births). The Russian situation is thus inherited his birth is much greater than in other countries.
Turkey, by cons, is likely to be third, or may invite themselves to second place (as between 1993 and 2003 or the Russian births had reached the bottom, and those were at their peak Turkish), everything depends on how far fertility is lower. For now it is 2.2 children per woman, at the replacement level of generations, given a higher infant mortality than the rest of Europe. If Turkey adopts the fertility behavior of Mediterranean countries, namely its neighbor Greece, the closest historically and culturally, the number of births could collapse quite quickly, from below one million births.
Behind the fourth place should be played between France and the United Kingdom. While France maintained a fertility rate near replacement level of generations, it seems to take way, she could count over 800 000 births and therefore, their births increase slightly, thanks to the impact of immigration, slightly ahead United Kingdom. Accordingly, it is not surprising that these two countries by their GDP permanently outpace Germany in the medium term. Indeed, Germany, less than an immediate and dramatic increase her fertility should be definitively distanced, with 600,000 births being at the same level as Algeria, which, given the decline in fertility would its birth to stabilize then reduce about 650 000 births.
Finally, Syria may well behind win beating the four other European countries (Italy, Spain, Poland, Ukraine) it is difficult to predict the classification, the number of births is close enough and their equivalent fertility (1.2 children per woman), even if Poland and Ukraine have a historical legacy that in case of increase of their fertility, could pass before the other two, which are maintained for the time being due to immigration.
Conclusion
There is indeed a link between changes in the volume of births and geopolitics. A similar level of development, evolution in the number of births may alter the ranking of countries. In countries undergoing development of poor governance, it can be a source of geopolitical turmoil when she is too high, especially emigration. Various territories, as shown by Gérard-François Dumont [27], changes in the number of births, and more specifically the existence of large families, perhaps one of the factors facilitating the rise of Islamic terrorism . Within the geographic scope of this study, the three countries that have and will have the number of births are the largest outside the European Union, and therefore they fall into the latter will necessarily be the first place, that 'They want to legitimately translate politically.
France one of the last western country with a fertility rate
, what do you think?
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Ferrets54
My Nordic idle 
