As for the GOP’s claim that "the bill would add over $700 billion in red ink over the next decade," we judge it to be mostly bogus.
■It rests largely on a claim that hundreds of billions of dollars in projected Medicare savings are being "double-counted." But CBO is simply not doing that.
■The GOP’s $700 billion figure also includes more than $200 billion for a permanent "doctor fix" to prevent a cut in Medicare payments to doctors. But that is not even a part of the new law, and many Republicans endorse the "doctor fix" anyway.
■The GOP claims the law will cost $115 billion to administer, but that isn’t true. CBO actually puts those costs at roughly $10 billion to $20 billion over the next 10 years.
Analysis
In our Jan. 7 article we showed how House Republicans are misrepresenting facts to support their claim that the new law is a "job-killer." We said the truth is that the law is expected to have only a small effect on employment, including fewer low-wage jobs but also more jobs in health care and the insurance industry. We promised then that we would address at a later date the GOP’s claim that the law is also "budget-busting." Here we go.
The Official Score
Let’s start with the official, nonpartisan analysis issued by the CBO on Jan. 6. The agency said repealing the new law would produce a large change in the deficit, but not in the direction Republicans claim. CBO said repeal would "likely" cause "an increase in the vicinity of $230 billion." That’s for the 10 years ending in 2021. It follows that leaving the law in place will reduce the deficit by $230 billion, according to CBO’s official scoring.
There’s reason to believe that the $230 billion figure is too high — though it’s not the fault of the CBO. It’s because some provisions of the law may not end up being implemented. Some unknown portion of the claimed savings from Medicare may never materialize.
The law calls for new restraints on the future growth of Medicare payments to hospitals, skilled nursing facilities, home health agencies and other non-physician providers. Richard Foster, the chief actuary for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, has estimated that these restraints alone would cover $575 billion of the law’s new spending over 10 years. (Foster’s figure is for the decade ending in 2019, and would be larger if it were adjusted to bring it in line with CBO’s 2021 figure.)
But Foster wrote in a report last April that it "may be unrealistic" to assume that all the savings would actually be realized. That’s because Foster’s computer simulations suggest that roughly 15 percent of hospitals and other such providers would become unprofitable under the restraints. "Although this policy could be monitored over time to avoid such an outcome, changes would likely result in smaller actual savings than shown here for these provisions," Foster wrote. He noted that Congress had overridden similar restraints on Medicare payments to physicians (enacted in 1997) for each of the seven years prior to his report. Congress has continued to put off those doctor-payment cuts since then.
So — should Congress in the future do for hospitals what it has consistently done for physicians — the law will result in less Medicare savings than currently projected. How much less, and whether or when that might happen, is impossible for us to predict.
Dems Also Exaggerate
This uncertainty in what may happen to provisions of the law in the future also casts doubt on the Democrats’ boast that the law reduces the deficit by $1.3 trillion. That’s the figure Rep. Nancy Pelosi used on Jan. 5, when she was passing the gavel to new Speaker John Boehner. Pelosi claimed the law "will save taxpayers $1.3 trillion."
She extrapolated that number from the CBO’s analyses, but the agency didn’t actually use that specific figure. As we said, CBO estimated the law would reduce the deficit by $230 billion over the 2012-2021 time period. For the following decade, CBO was less concrete, saying that the law (coupled with the reconciliation legislation that was passed with it) would reduce the deficit by "a broad range around one-half percent of gross domestic product."
The Democratic staff of the Ways and Means Committee calculated what 0.5 percent of the estimated gross domestic product would be over a second 10-year period, coming up with a 20-year total of more than $1.3 trillion.
But CBO has couched its second-decade estimates in all kinds of language about the uncertainty of projecting budget effects that far into the future. In a March 2010 analysis, it said: “Those longer-term calculations reflect an assumption that the provisions of the reconciliation proposal and H.R. 3590 are enacted and remain unchanged throughout the next two decades, which is often not the case for major legislation.” Several provisions, in particular those Medicare payment reductions, “might be difficult to sustain over a long period of time,” CBO said.
The bottom line: Only time will tell if those kinds of savings will materialize. “The long-term budgetary impact could be quite different if key provisions of the legislation were ultimately changed or not fully implemented,” CBO said.
‘Double-Counting’?
Now for the Republican claims. In its report, "Obamacare, a Budget-Busting, Job-Killing Health Care Law," the GOP leadership relies on a partisan analysis by the House Budget Committee’s Republicans, and states that the law will add $701 billion to the deficit in its first decade. That analysis can be found on the Budget Committee’s website, where the committee lists several alleged "gimmicks" that it says Democrats have used.
The biggest alleged "gimmick" in dollar terms is this: "Democrats claim they are extending solvency of Medicare by cutting $398 billion from the program, but they simultaneously claim that these savings will offset new subsidy programs." Republicans claim Democrats are "double-counting" that amount. But whatever spin Democrats may be using to promote their legislation, the fact is that the CBO is not double-counting this money. Even Republican Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the new chairman of the Budget Committee, conceded that in an interview with the Washington Post’s public policy columnist Ezra Klein last year.
|