Ukraine stirs conflict with Russia

[RusskiSoldat]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4613102.stm

Moscow and Kiev in lighthouse row
By Helen Fawkes
BBC News, Kiev

Russia has demanded access to a lighthouse in the Crimean city of Yalta which it claims was occupied by Ukrainian officials on Friday.

Moscow says the lighthouse, claimed by Kiev as its property, is crucial for the safety of its Black Sea fleet.

The two countries struck a deal in 1997 on the division of the Soviet Black Sea fleet and the lease of Ukrainian facilities by the Russian Navy.

Kiev officials have suggested charging Russia more rent for Black Sea bases.

The latest row comes barely two weeks after Moscow and Kiev resolved a bitter dispute over gas prices after Ukraine was forced to accept higher prices for Russian gas.

Simmering row

The dispute over the Black Sea fleet appears to be escalating.

The Russian navy claims to have foiled an attempt on Saturday to occupy another lighthouse in the Crimea.

It comes after Moscow accused Ukraine of seizing a lighthouse in Yalta on Friday during a maintenance trip.

But the Ukrainian foreign ministry says this decision is deliberate misinformation.

It claims that all hydro-graphic sites and navigation equipment on the Crimean coast, including the Yalta lighthouse, are the property of Ukraine.

A row between Moscow and Kiev over the Black Sea fleet has been simmering for many months.

The Ukrainian foreign ministry has previously accused the Russian Black Sea fleets of violating the conditions of their long-standing agreement by refusing to hand over navigational facilities.

As revenge for our cutting gas to them, Ukraine has for whatever reason taken a light house.
Now in this particular case, I can't clearly see who is right or wrong (it being some minor dispute over a couple of lighthouses and some navigational equipment), but rather take interest in the trend of Ukrainish-Russian conflict which interests me.
You think this could lead to anything major happening within a decade?

[imb39]

Once agreements are abrogated and then trust diminshes it is natural that one side wants to take revenge. By opening a can of worms in the gas pricing fiasco then it is no surprise that the Ukraine should look at ways of getting back. Russia should have looked at the bigger picture. If you want Ukraine to be a friend, threatening them was not a particularly bright idea.

[jedisponge]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4613102.stm


As revenge for our cutting gas to them, Ukraine has for whatever reason taken a light house.
Now in this particular case, I can't clearly see who is right or wrong (it being some minor dispute over a couple of lighthouses and some navigational equipment), but rather take interest in the trend of Ukrainish-Russian conflict which interests me.
You think this could lead to anything major happening within a decade?

That is something I agree with wholeheartedly. Who knows what will happen as time passes. I'm sure we can all predict different sort of scenarios, but it's still too early to call. This ordeal needs more development before a more concrete prediction and policy prescriptions can be made.

[RusskiSoldat]

Once agreements are abrogated and then trust diminshes it is natural that one side wants to take revenge. By opening a can of worms in the gas pricing fiasco then it is no surprise that the Ukraine should look at ways of getting back. Russia should have looked at the bigger picture. If you want Ukraine to be a friend, threatening them was not a particularly bright idea.

Actualy, this whole thing started with the so called Orange Revolution.
They declared that they would move away from Russia and towards the west, then a year later we undermined them with gas prices, now they're trying to find some way they can undermine us, and figured that the only thing we depend on them on is the black sea fleet storage.

[Tacticalwithdrawal]

Actualy, this whole thing started with the so called Orange Revolution.
They declared that they would move away from Russia and towards the west, then a year later we undermined them with gas prices, now they're trying to find some way they can undermine us, and figured that the only thing we depend on them on is the black sea fleet storage.

yup, I'd say that one sentence summed up Russia in this affair.

Ukraine - 'we are a nation state, we want to stand by ourselves and actually prefer to talk to the West'
Russia - 'no you can't'
Ukraine - 'we are a nation state, not your slaves any more, why can't we?'
Russia - 'because we say so'
Ukraine - 'just watch us mate. Hello West, can we be friends?'
West - 'of course you can, welcome aboard'
Russia - 'right that's it, if you won;t do what we say, we're going to hike your gas prices by several hundered %, screw you'
Ukraine - 'oh bollocks. Right, we're going to reclaim all our lighthouses, let's see you sail your (rotting) black sea fleet aroud then'

blooming children that's what they all are

[bigfootedfred]

Power games fuel Ukraine turmoil

President Viktor Yushchenko's condemnation of the Ukrainian parliament's decision to sack his government has led to an acute stand-off between the two.
BBC regional affairs analyst Steven Eke examines whether the conflict goes beyond anger over the recent vote of no-confidence.

Ukraine is mired in a deep political crisis.
The cause, according to one camp, consisting of a large number of deputies, is the raft of shortcomings, as they see them, in the gas deal signed with Moscow.
According to the other camp - President Yushchenko and his associates in the government - it is about power games and an attempt to undermine him and his allies ahead of the election.
This election is significant because constitutional changes introduced on 1 January shifted important powers from the president to parliament. They include the right to name the prime minister and form a government.
Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov accused parliamentarians of being unable to grasp the complexities of energy supplies to Ukraine, and of undermining the country's political and economic interests.

Tymoshenko moves
In particular, there is concern over whether the political crisis will prevent the sealing of the gas deal with an appropriate intergovernmental agreement. The existing government is still to submit a draft to its Russian counterpart, and there are fears that any new government would be under tremendous pressure to reject the deal entirely.


GAS ROW TIMELINE
Nov 2005 - Russian gas giant, Gazprom, demands Ukraine pay market rates for gas supplies
13 Dec - Gazprom threatens to cut supplies if deal not reached by 1 January
28 Dec - Ukraine's energy minister visits Moscow but fails to resolve row
1 Jan 2006 - Russia cuts off gas supplies to Ukraine
3 Jan - EU calls for end to row, as supplies across Europe hit
4 Jan - Deal reached. Ukraine agrees to pay Russia double for gas supplies
10 Jan - Ukraine's parliament votes to sack cabinet over deal

The "dream ticket" alliance of Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko seems resolutely dead.
Following her sacking last year, over what was widely acknowledged as very poor management of the economy, Ms Tymoshenko has allied herself, varyingly, with forces opposed to her erstwhile Orange Revolution ally.
Some Ukrainian analysts say she is positioning herself in a bid to regain her premiership.
Ms Tymoshenko herself said earlier this week that there was no question of her forming an alliance with Mr Yushchenko's enemies.
She insisted that, in actually backing them over specific issues like the gas contract, she was acting according to conscience and what she perceived as Ukraine's national interests.
Ms Tymoshenko remains popular with many members of the "orange electorate", but some say she has now over-played her hand. The motion dismissing the government was strongly backed, after all, by "Regions of Ukraine", led by Viktor Yanukovych, the Russian-backed opponent of Viktor Yushchenko in the 2004 presidential election.
To many Ukrainians, it looked like political pay-back time. It also drew support from the Communist Party, Social Democratic Party, and two groups supporting parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn - a highly influential political figure in his own right.
The situation is made even more complicated by the absence of a functioning Constitutional Court. It has been unable to convene because parliament has not scheduled a swearing-in session for new judges.

Western concern
Parliament breaks for a three-week winter recess on Friday, and it is unclear just what rights Yuri Yekhanurov, the now care-taker prime minister, retains until the election.
But already, many analysts say that the political scene after the election may be no less restive.
Parliament, boosted with new powers, could enter a period of protracted political struggle with Mr Yushchenko. It may also shape a quite different strategic course than the pro-western programme of integration with the EU and Nato espoused by the president.
The political situation inside Ukraine is causing concern abroad. While Russia may welcome the possibility of a larger pro-Russian group inside Ukraine's parliament, both the European Union and US State Department have voiced concerns over Ukraine's reform programme.
They have called on all sides to act within the law to preserve stability in the run-up to the election campaign.

source

[MareNostrum]

Topic reopened.

Rants, flames, OT posts removed. Warnings issued.

Now carry on with the civil discussion.

====

hint hint
also there is NO need to describe the true "nature" of your posts that got deleted.
The words "rants, flames OT posts removed" are aimed at the original state of the deleted topic in its entirety.

Comments.. send me a PM
dont use topic.

[imb39]

Actualy, this whole thing started with the so called Orange Revolution.
They declared that they would move away from Russia and towards the west, then a year later we undermined them with gas prices, now they're trying to find some way they can undermine us, and figured that the only thing we depend on them on is the black sea fleet storage.

So you're saying that the people's decision to put in a government of thweir choice is what triggered the whole thing... Hmmm.... I hate to tell you this, but the Russian Empire is no more. Like I said, if you want to get on with people nowadays, threatening them does not generally work.

I also seem to remember that there were some serious allegations that the Russians were behind the apparent poisoning of the Ukranian President. If that's the case (and I use the word 'if') then the Russians were rather silly to have attempted it. A good old fashioned sex scandal would have been better.

I am still stunned by the assertion that the Ukrainians started it with their Orange Revolution. Bizarre thinking by most standards.

More of a 'right, you're not out friends anymore, so we'll treat you only slightly better than everyone else rather than really well'

So the Ukranians have responded likewise with the light house. TBH, the Russians started this with the abrogation of the agreement.

[RZZZA]

Ok I've gotten Mare's permission so I guess I'll just post this succinct (thats a word, right?) paragraph that sums up how I feel about modern day Russia.

"The fact is, Russia has been having trouble with its former satellite nations for the longest time. And in many cases, they brought the trouble on themselves with their particularly heavyhanded and unsympathetic approach to these so called "slavic" nations...Poland, Hungary...all those nations to the west of Russia as well as others have felt the chains of Russian oppresion and they have a legit reason to hate Russia. As do Jews. As do anyone else Russians have made beef with."

Russia did not grow to be a competing world superpower in the same way the U.S.A did...They relied much more on brutal, militaristic tactics to defeat their enemies and any opposition. That mentality is still prevalant in Russia, minorities are still mistreated and opressed. The world keeps on spinning, but nothing changes. I really cannot speak about the Ukrainian aspect of it, to me I do not diffrentiate between Russia and the Ukraine. I used to live in both, I was born in St. Petersburg but visited Odessa, in the Ukraine quite regularly. I know very little about the Ukraine, apparently they want to be fiercly independant from Russia but to a semi-outsider like me, I find there is a LOT of similarities between the two countries. They border eachother so it may as well just be one country as far as I can see, plenty of Russian speaking people in the Ukraine as well...but I'm ignorant on this subject, obiously the Ukrainiens do not want to be considered Russians...*shrug* whatever, the point is that Russias problems could very well mirror the problems of the Ukraine as well, but thats shallow speculation. The bottom line is that Russia expanded its borders (in modern times mind you) with sheer brute military force...West, South and East. Consequently, every country on Russias borders to the immediate west, south and east have a bone or two to pick with Russia.

Well...maybe not Turkey...I'm not sure about Turkey. But Poland, Hungary, Bosnia...Kazakhstan...all those little former soviet Russia-influenced countries are packs of wild dogs nipping at Russia, waiting for any chance to exact some kind of retribution. This always happens with world superpowers, doesnt it? It happened with Rome as well, and its happening to America too...though not as much as with Russia because America is still quite strong. As soon as we lose power and global standing, you can bet our enemies will creep on up from out of the woodwork.

[RusskiSoldat]

So you're saying that the people's decision to put in a government of thweir choice is what triggered the whole thing... Hmmm.... I hate to tell you this, but the Russian Empire is no more.

And?
What obligations are under to give them prefferential treatment that we gave them as friends now that they're no longer friends?

Like I said, if you want to get on with people nowadays, threatening them does not generally work.

We want to get on with them as we would with any other nation, nothing special.

I also seem to remember that there were some serious allegations that the Russians were behind the apparent poisoning of the Ukranian President. If that's the case (and I use the word 'if') then the Russians were rather silly to have attempted it. A good old fashioned sex scandal would have been better.

I guess it would.
Murky story with that poisoning, and from what I've seen there are no ways to prove anything, hell he might've did it himself for some "omg evil Russians" rhetoric, or it might've been the pro Russian Ukrainish.
Also you all fool yourself by thinking that Ukraine is being oppressed by evil Russians who want to place puppet leaders there for no reason, aroundd 50% of the country (quite a large minority, eh?) is pro Russian and voted for our guy.
Yushenko was only saved from defeat by the fact that so many absentee voters traveled back to Ukraine to vote for him, as well as the fact that curiously many of districts (albeit on both sides) had voter turnouts of well over 100%.
Reality?
It's about 50/50, so either way would be fair.
Naturaly I am in favor of the pro Russian way, but I have no ethical high horse that most westerners are on for some reason.
Get over it, either way a lot of people would've been ****** off.

I am still stunned by the assertion that the Ukrainians started it with their Orange Revolution. Bizarre thinking by most standards.

What are you talking about?
They specifically said through their government that they do not wish to associate themsevles with Russia, but rather with the EU.
Well, they no longer associate themselves with discount gas from Russia either.
Seems a pretty clear cause-effect there.

So the Ukranians have responded likewise with the light house. TBH, the Russians started this with the abrogation of the agreement.

What abrogation?
Is it true solely because it's the opposite of what Russia claimed?
Are the Ukrainish incapable of lying to further their goals?

Russia did not grow to be a competing world superpower in the same way the U.S.A did...They relied much more on brutal, militaristic tactics to defeat their enemies and any opposition. That mentality is still prevalant in Russia, minorities are still mistreated and opressed. The world keeps on spinning, but nothing changes. I really cannot speak about the Ukrainian aspect of it, to me I do not diffrentiate between Russia and the Ukraine. I used to live in both, I was born in St. Petersburg but visited Odessa, in the Ukraine quite regularly. I know very little about the Ukraine, apparently they want to be fiercly independant from Russia but to a semi-outsider like me, I find there is a LOT of similarities between the two countries. They border eachother so it may as well just be one country as far as I can see, plenty of Russian speaking people in the Ukraine as well...but I'm ignorant on this subject, obiously the Ukrainiens do not want to be considered Russians...*shrug* whatever, the point is that Russias problems could very well mirror the problems of the Ukraine as well, but thats shallow speculation. The bottom line is that Russia expanded its borders (in modern times mind you) with sheer brute military force...West, South and East. Consequently, every country on Russias borders to the immediate west, south and east have a bone or two to pick with Russia.

Well...maybe not Turkey...I'm not sure about Turkey. But Poland, Hungary, Bosnia...Kazakhstan...all those little former soviet Russia-influenced countries are packs of wild dogs nipping at Russia, waiting for any chance to exact some kind of retribution. This always happens with world superpowers, doesnt it? It happened with Rome as well, and its happening to America too...though not as much as with Russia because America is still quite strong. As soon as we lose power and global standing, you can bet our enemies will creep on up from out of the woodwork.

**** happens.
Obviously anti Russian politicians look at Russia as an enemy and want to get all they can out of it.
You seems to be forgetting about the pro Russia politicians for one reason or another, though.
And judging by the fact that you're a an expatriate, a market capitalist and a jew, I see why you do not like the Russian government.
But tough luck, I may disagree with Putin on a lot of things, but he seems to be both popular and succesful.

[RZZZA]

What kills me is the hypocrisy of the Russians. Jews can be used as disposable infantry, but by no means are they given any respect. They condone the oppresion of Jews, gypsies and other minorities meanwhile this guy...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Zhirinovsky

Is half jewish. What the hell?

I see some very nazi-esque tendencies within the russian mentality and it saddens me. They fought against fascism and racial oppresion in WWII and now theyre guilty of it. Or maybe they never fought for that in the first place, maybe they just fought to expand oppressive government and racial discrimination, only under their own banner, not Germany's. Theres a lot of good things about Russia but theres also a lot of hush hush taboo type stuff which I am talking about...the gulags, the KGB, racial bigotry, vors, expansionistic minded government policy...its all part of the same package.

[John I Tzimisces]

Well...maybe not Turkey...I'm not sure about Turkey.

Armenia. Don't forget us. We beat the Red Army combined with azeri forces when they defended Azerbaijans illegitimate claim to Nagorno-Karabagh. Which, by the way, was promised to be ceded to us 80 years ago by our Russian conquerors. And they obviously failed to deliver.

Russia just tends to act like any other power with the military to bully every nation in its sphere of influence. Not particularly unique.

[Dromikaites]

A good old fashioned sex scandal would have been better.

He, he, not in Eastern Europe (nor in France). In this part of the world a politician who has many other mistresses besides his wife is considered a real man and therefore fit to run the country . OK, finding him a homosexual lover might ruin his career, but no tabloid would bother showing a male politician's girlfriends. When Bill Clinton did his thing with Monica Lewinsky in the "Oral" Office most people in Romania were thinking something like "What's all this scandal about, aren't interns supposed to blow the president?"

I am still stunned by the assertion that the Ukrainians started it with their Orange Revolution. Bizarre thinking by most standards.

Well, yes, but it's normal thinking for the Russian politicians. And for some of the Russians on the street, unfortunately, but most likely not the majority of them.

Jirinovski is a clown who indeed sells his votes to the highest bidder. He will never have any significant position in Russia. His opinions are not representative for what the majority of the Russian population thinks. The average Russian is angry on the Russian corupt politicians and is discouraged by the fact there's nobody honest to replace those thieves with.

[wilpuri]

The Ukrainians were very unhappy about the government 'giving in' on the Russian demands of higher gas prices, and I think that the feeling in the Ukraine is generally quite anti-Kremlin, at least in the Western half. I think it was silly of the Ukrainians to do this, as obviously they do not have the same amount of leverage as Russia does, and this could also spark a very serious internal crisis within the Ukraine. However, I see the Kremlin being its usual, provocative self.

[Alcibiades of Athens]

As the Ukrainians have threatened to raise the "rent" for the russian black sea fleet in return for the gas price raise/blockade, they are now showing,that they mean bussines and probably have figured out,what kind of respone they would have to expect, if they simply would send a bill to the Kreml.Trying to stop a fleet of warships from entering and using the harbor also appears to be a less than optimal solution.

Now they found something to show the world, that they can just be as stupid and stubborn as the Russians and there is nothing the latter can do, after they learned the hard way that,cutting off the Ukraine's gas supplies isn't a perfect solution either.

t.b.c.

[Last Roman]

well im not sure who to believe. neither governments are exactly the picture of honesty

[Sétanta]

well im not sure who to believe. neither governments are exactly the picture of honesty

yeah but i would take ukraine over russia any day corruption wise

[RusskiSoldat]

Ukraine - 'we are a nation state, we want to stand by ourselves and actually prefer to talk to the West'

Add 'and **** Russia' to that

Russia - 'no you can't'
Ukraine - 'we are a nation state, not your slaves any more, why can't we?'
Russia - 'because we say so'

When did we not allow them to do anything?
Obviously it's in our best interests that they deal with us more than with the west, but we damn well know we can't forbid them to go western.

Ukraine - 'just watch us mate. Hello West, can we be friends?'
West - 'of course you can, welcome aboard'

Russia - 'right that's it, if you won;t do what we say, we're going to hike your gas prices by several hundered %, screw you'

More of a 'right, you're not out friends anymore, so we'll treat you only slightly better than everyone else rather than really well'

Ukraine - 'oh bollocks. Right, we're going to reclaim all our lighthouses, let's see you sail your (rotting) black sea fleet aroud then'

'reclaim' and 'all our' are out of place here.

[RusskiSoldat]

What kills me is the hypocrisy of the Russians. Jews can be used as disposable infantry, but by no means are they given any respect. They condone the oppresion of Jews, gypsies and other minorities meanwhile this guy...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Zhirinovsky

Is half jewish. What the hell?

Zhirinovski is a joke and everyone but the stupidest fanatics know it.
He simply uses his political leverage in the Duma, and sells the votes to the highest bidder and the seats in the Duma to people with money who want to play politician.
Or he openly mocks the democratic system through his actions.

I see some very nazi-esque tendencies within the russian mentality and it saddens me. They fought against fascism and racial oppresion in WWII and now theyre guilty of it. Or maybe they never fought for that in the first place, maybe they just fought to expand oppressive government and racial discrimination, only under their own banner, not Germany's. Theres a lot of good things about Russia but theres also a lot of hush hush taboo type stuff which I am talking about...the gulags, the KGB, racial bigotry, vors, expansionistic minded government policy...its all part of the same package.

We were fought before we were attacked.
Racism existed in Russia just as it did in the west in the early 20th century, and was suppressed by Stalin.
During the later years of communism, it became common practice to blame the Jews for everything.
Now Nazi groups have formed because the population is poor and frustrated.
I have no idea what vors are, so could you please explain that to me?
The gulags were the equivalent of prisons, the KGB was nothing special, really, no worse than the CIA or most other coutnries' secret services and every big country is expansionist minded, whether militarily or economically, whereas as smaller countries are concerned with preserving their independence.

[RZZZA]

What do you mean Stalin suppresed Racism? That doesnt make sense to me. And by "vor" I meant...y'know, the "thieves world", the old ways which they said died out but I am convinced they havent, theyve only evolved. C'mon you know what I'm talking about, the vory, the distinct underworld crime system that is unique to Russia. A lot of the prominent businessmen, politicians and such "high rollers" within Russian society are part of or somehow connected to this underworld crime system...Vory, russian mafia....legitimate "business" whatver you wanna call it...it exists, and it permeates throughout Russian society, and it seeps into government affairs.