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  1. #1

    Default Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Surprised no-one has posted this yet....


    It could be one of the most ambitious computer projects ever conceived.
    An international group of scientists are aiming to create a simulator that can replicate everything happening on Earth - from global weather patterns and the spread of diseases to international financial transactions or congestion on Milton Keynes' roads.
    Nicknamed the Living Earth Simulator (LES), the project aims to advance the scientific understanding of what is taking place on the planet, encapsulating the human actions that shape societies and the environmental forces that define the physical world.
    "Many problems we have today - including social and economic instabilities, wars, disease spreading - are related to human behaviour, but there is apparently a serious lack of understanding regarding how society and the economy work," says Dr Helbing, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, who chairs the FuturICT project which aims to create the simulator.
    Knowledge collider
    Thanks to projects such as the Large Hadron Collider, the particle accelerator built by Cern, scientists know more about the early universe than they do about our own planet, claims Dr Helbing.
    What is needed is a knowledge accelerator, to collide different branches of knowledge, he says.
    "Revealing the hidden laws and processes underlying societies constitutes the most pressing scientific grand challenge of our century."
    The result would be the LES. It would be able to predict the spread of infectious diseases, such as Swine Flu, identify methods for tackling climate change or even spot the inklings of an impending financial crisis, he says.

    But how would such colossal system work?
    For a start it would need to be populated by data - lots of it - covering the entire gamut of activity on the planet, says Dr Helbing.
    It would also be powered by an assembly of yet-to-be-built supercomputers capable of carrying out number-crunching on a mammoth scale.
    Although the hardware has not yet been built, much of the data is already being generated, he says.
    For example, the Planetary Skin project, led by US space agency Nasa, will see the creation of a vast sensor network collecting climate data from air, land, sea and space.
    In addition, Dr Helbing and his team have already identified more than 70 online data sources they believe can be used including Wikipedia, Google Maps and the UK government's data repository Data.gov.uk.

    Drowning in data
    Integrating such real-time data feeds with millions of other sources of data - from financial markets and medical records to social media - would ultimately power the simulator, says Dr Helbing.
    The next step is create a framework to turn that morass of data in to models that accurately replicate what is taken place on Earth today.
    That will only be possible by bringing together social scientists and computer scientists and engineers to establish the rules that will define how the LES operates.
    Such work cannot be left to traditional social science researchers, where typically years of work produces limited volumes of data, argues Dr Helbing.
    Nor is it something that could have been achieved before - the technology needed to run the LES will only become available in the coming decade, he adds.

    Human behaviour
    For example, while the LES will need to be able to assimilate vast oceans of data it will simultaneously have to understand what that data means.
    That becomes possible as so-called semantic web technologies mature, says Dr Helbing.
    Today, a database chock-full of air pollution data would look much the same to a computer as a database of global banking transactions - essentially just a lot of numbers.
    But semantic web technology will encode a description of data alongside the data itself, enabling computers to understand the data in context.
    What's more, our approach to aggregating data stresses the need to strip out any of that information that relates directly to an individual, says Dr Helbing.

    That will enable the LES to incorporate vast amounts of data relating to human activity, without compromising people's privacy, he argues.
    Once an approach to carrying out large-scale social and economic data is agreed upon, it will be necessary to build supercomputer centres needed to crunch that data and produce the simulation of the Earth, says Dr Helbing.
    Generating the computational power to deal with the amount of data needed to populate the LES represents a significant challenge, but it's far from being a showstopper.
    If you look at the data-processing capacity of Google, it's clear that the LES won't be held back by processing capacity, says Pete Warden, founder of the OpenHeatMap project and a specialist on data analysis.
    While Google is somewhat secretive about the amount of data it can process, in May 2010 it was believed to use in the region of 39,000 servers to process an exabyte of data per month - that's enough data to fill 2 billion CDs every month.
    Reality mining
    If you accept that only a fraction of the "several hundred exabytes of data being produced worldwide every year… would be useful for a world simulation, the bottleneck won't be the processing capacity," says Mr Warden.
    "Getting access to the data will be much more of a challenge, as will figuring out something useful to do with it," he adds.
    Simply having lots of data isn't enough to build a credible simulation of the planet, argues Warden. "Economics and sociology have consistently failed to produce theories with strong predictive powers over the last century, despite lots of data gathering. I'm sceptical that larger data sets will mark a big change," he says.
    "It's not that we don't know enough about a lot of the problems the world faces, from climate change to extreme poverty, it's that we don't take any action on the information we do have," he argues.
    Regardless of the challenges the project faces, the greater danger is not attempting to use the computer tools we have now - and will have in future - to improve our understanding of global socio-economic trends, says Dr Helbing.
    "Over the past years, it has for example become obvious that we need better indicators than the gross national product to judge societal development and well-being," he argues.
    At it's heart, the LES is about working towards better methods to measure the state of society, he says, which would account for health, education and environmental issues. "And last but not least, happiness."
    Taken from BBC News

    Hmm I wonder if it'll be like Google Earth where you can zoom in and see whats going on etc, could be the greatest game ever lol

    Thanx
    Raradir

  2. #2

    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Garbage in equals garbage out.
    "When I die, I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like Fidel Castro, not screaming in terror, like his victims."

    My shameful truth.

  3. #3
    Inevitability won
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    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    As a programmer myself. This is just rediculously over ambitious project that will never equate to anything like they want it. Not that I claim to be anywhere in the same league as the people attempting this that is. Still, there are far too many variables in effect in a real world that are simply impossible to simulate in a computer world, variables that although small, effect the world in a large way when combined and will lead to an inaccurate model of our/a world, if the project is even ever 'finished'.

    But I wish them the best of luck none the less.

  4. #4
    Elfdude's Avatar Tribunus
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    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Not necessarily. One of the major advantages of this is we can put the data we have in and see what it spits out. From there we can essentially calibrate our simulated world which can really help us narrow down the accuracy on what laws we believe affect society, weather, etc. Further by using procedural laws rather than linear programming the world can be derived which both generates a much more natural world and also saves on major data requirements.

    I mean, just recently didn't the US military create the fastest supercomputer in the world by linking $10 mil worth of PS3's together or something? Admittedly this project would still require even more processing power (down to the atomic scale ideally) to calculate this all. Perhaps it won't even be truly possible until quantum computing considering we still struggle to model one brain much less 7 billion human brains.

  5. #5

    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    I read about this in BBC news too. I think it's a great idea, but I don't think computers are quite powerful enough for an accurate simulation.

  6. #6
    Jaketh's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Quote Originally Posted by JPHILP! View Post
    I read about this in BBC news too. I think it's a great idea, but I don't think computers are quite powerful enough for an accurate simulation.
    quantum computers could be

  7. #7

    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Its not the computers which are the biggest problem its the variables.

    Tell me what the weather is going to be like in 2 weeks.
    "When I die, I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like Fidel Castro, not screaming in terror, like his victims."

    My shameful truth.

  8. #8
    Denny Crane!'s Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Way to ambitious. If they started on something simple with less variables and the ability to get it right, and then move onto something else and start aggregating the models then that is fine.

    Either way I bet it is a lot of fun even beginning to think about a project like that. Can't believe people are getting paid to do this stuff, I took a wrong turn somewhere lol.

  9. #9
    cpdwane's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    We've been trying to predict the economy and the stock markets for several centuries now, but no matter how much you can account for changing supply and demand, trade deals, buying trends ect, you can never predict when a massive disaster or a stock market crash is going to occur and ruin all your calculations.

    This supercomputer is just going to be massive waste of funds.

    __________"Ancient History is my Achilles' Heel"___________

  10. #10

    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    it can be done with XIX century maths, ever heard of Quetelet?

  11. #11
    Nimthill's Avatar Biarchus
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    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Two words: Chaos Theory.

    Even the slightest mistake in any variable is going to give massive changes in end-result. That's why we can't predict weather two weeks from now; simply because we can't measure accurately enough and can't project accurately enough. And now they want to do the entire world?
    For every action there is an equal and opposite government program.

  12. #12

    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    I'm reminded of a Friedrich Hayek quote.
    Quote Originally Posted by Friedrich Hayek
    The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design
    Reality doesn't fit inside a mathematical equation. You can never simulate human action, the driving force of our society.
    Last edited by Enemy of the State; January 08, 2011 at 03:23 AM.

  13. #13

    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Quote Originally Posted by Timothy Leary View Post
    I'm reminded of a Friedrich Hayek quote. Reality doesn't fit inside a mathematical equation. You can never simulate human action, the driving force of our society.
    Statistical analysis can derive human responses to certain actions. Once read a very interesting book on how by using simple behavioural equations and swarm mechanics, quite a few human reactions to a situation can be determined. An example was human behaviour during fire outbreaks in buildings and the like extending to the ways countries form alliances with each other to counter each other's power. It's a shame I cannot remember what it is called.
    Smilies...the resort of those with a vacuous argument

  14. #14

    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Reality doesn't fit inside a mathematical equation. You can never simulate human action, the driving force of our society.
    Yeah, and that's why that Economics and other related Sciences, like Econometrics, are completely crooked besides a couple of fundamental philosophical assumptions.
    "Romans not only easily conquered those who fought by cutting, but mocked them too. For the cut, even delivered with force, frequently does not kill, when the vital parts are protected by equipment and bone. On the contrary, a point brought to bear is fatal at two inches; for it is necessary that whatever vital parts it penetrates, it is immersed. Next, when a cut is delivered, the right arm and flank are exposed. However, the point is delivered with the cover of the body and wounds the enemy before he sees it."

    - Flavius Vegetius Renatus (in Epitoma Rei Militari, ca. 390)

  15. #15

    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Hopefully Shogun2 will be a decent simulator to predict outcomes of medieval Japan.

  16. #16
    Copperknickers II's Avatar quaeri, si sapis
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    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    To get an accurate simulation they would have to detail every single molecule on the surface of the earth, from people's brains to the exact position of air flows to secret government plans which they are no way going to get access to. Completely impossible.
    A new mobile phone tower went up in a town in the USA, and the local newspaper asked a number of people what they thought of it. Some said they noticed their cellphone reception was better. Some said they noticed the tower was affecting their health.

    A local administrator was asked to comment. He nodded sagely, and said simply: "Wow. And think about how much more pronounced these effects will be once the tower is actually operational."

  17. #17

    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Actually that's what God did, well him as well as the extraterrestrials.

    Though to be fair, this model wouldn't need all that info, it doesn't need to know your dirty underwear to predict the weather or car crashes or continental plate movements, they just need statistics and drop in a few other facts and let er rip!

  18. #18
    Del Valle's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    Computers are neither powerful for this and we wouldn't even know yo put in there in the first place so it can start simulating accurately.

  19. #19

    Default Re: Scientists aim to simulate Earth

    How about all the data we have?

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