Israeli Politics - how will they effect the ME

[Marshal Qin]

Israel's Netanyahu elected Likud chief
Tuesday Dec 20 10:33 AEDT
Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu has swept to victory in a Likud party election to take the helm of the rightist faction shattered by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's defection, an exit poll showed.

Netanyahu, an ex-premier who opposed Sharon's Gaza pullout and vows to fight further withdrawals from land Palestinians want for a state, won 47 per cent of the vote to 32 per cent for Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, Israel Radio projected.

Likud has led Israel for all but 10 years since it first took power in 1977, but it is now battling for third place in opinion polls behind Sharon's new centrist Kadima party and leftist Labour. A general election is set for March 28.

The Likud primary was overshadowed by Sharon's admission to a Jerusalem hospital on Sunday with a mild stroke. Worries over the 77-year-old former general's staying power could help Likud's fortunes if his health becomes a campaign issue.





"Netanyahu has been restored to his natural place at the helm of Likud and with God's help he will also become prime minister," Likud lawmaker Yuval Steinitz said.

With 10 per cent of returns counted, the tally was in line with the exit poll. Shalom conceded defeat, saying he had called Netanyahu to congratulate him and offer his support.

Sharon quit Likud in November to head off a rebellion by party ultranationalists trying to topple him for abandoning the Gaza Strip in September after 38 years of occupation.

A Netanyahu win anoints him as the party's candidate to run against Sharon but also confirms a return to its rightist roots. Likud had long opposed giving up Jewish settlements on land captured in the 1967 Middle East war.

Netanyahu, 56, who as Sharon's finance minister won market praise for deep spending cuts and free-market reforms that helped lift Israel out of recession, quit Sharon's cabinet in protest against the Gaza pullout.

He ran for the Likud leadership on a platform of refusing further territorial withdrawals and promising expansion of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank in defiance of a US-sponsored "road map" to peace with the Palestinians.

Shalom, a relative moderate, had been seen as more flexible on possible peacemaking.

As prime minister from 1996 to 1999, Netanyahu condemned interim land-for-peace deals but then agreed, under US pressure, to hand over part of the West Bank city of Hebron.

Voter turnout was reported to have been less than half of Likud's 128,000 members, believed to reflect disappointment over Sharon's departure and apathy over the candidates running to succeed him.

Netanyahu is widely known by his nickname "Bibi" but has also been dubbed "Mr Soundbite" for his polished made-for-TV oratory and unaccented English.

He has a hard core of rightist followers but many Israelis dislike his style and distrust him as a political opportunist.

There is also a depth of resentment over the hardships that his economic policies caused Israel's poor.

When Netanyahu visited Jerusalem's Western Wall, Judaism's holiest place of prayer, some onlookers shouted "You ruined our lives".

Surveys have predicted a major loss to Likud in the March election, with Sharon's Kadima luring away many of its supporters. Likud, which currently has 40 seats in the 120-member parliament, is expected to keep only about 12.


©AAP 2005

So how is this going to effect the political climate in the ME? With Sharon (being the sole driving force behind this disengagement and the Wall of Israel) having suffered a stroke and being replaced in Likud by a hardliner, how is this going to effect relations with the Palestinians, Syria, Jordan etc.?

At a guess I would say that it will make tensions worse as non-Israelis become more suspicious of the direction that Isarael is headed in. I wouldn't be surprised if there will be an increase in Mossad activity in Syria and Iran and possible strikes in Iran to appease the hardliners.

[danzig]

A possible disaster imo, Netanyahu simply isnt worth trusting and given the rhetoric/nuclear activies of Iran could spell a recipe for disaster if Sharon loses his position or has to step aside due to his stroke. I cant see anything good out of Netanyahu/Ahmadinejad matchup, two hardliners opposed to each other could create a huge mess. Plus side is turn out was rather low showing that while Netanyahu got a high % of the vote that not many people are that thrilled with the prospect of him.

[Erik]

It could be good if the Likud party looses the elections because then all the hardliners can be ignored and real progress can be made.
But if Likud does win the elections things wil be very bad.

It's all the the hands of the Israeli's.
If you include WWII most Israeli's have been in almost constant military conflict for 66 years now:
-"Daddy, what's peace?"
-"I don't know son, you have to ask your grandmother"
Makes you think.

Hopefully they are finally tired of fighting.

[danzig]

It's all the the hands of the Israeli's.
If you include WWII most Israeli's have been in almost constant military conflict for 66 years now:
-"Daddy, what's peace?"
-"I don't know son, you have to ask your grandmother"
Makes you think.

Hopefully they are finally tired of fighting.

Alot of those fights have been thru no fault of their own, to alot of them to being tired of fighting would be little more then surrender especially when you have neighbors calling upon your complete elimination. Ill agree with you that Likud in the hands of Bibi that retains leadership in Israel would be bad for them but they shouldnt stop fighting as long as they have neighbors who want to do them harm.

[Erik]

Alot of those fights have been thru no fault of their own, to alot of them to being tired of fighting would be little more then surrender especially when you have neighbors calling upon your complete elimination. Ill agree with you that Likud in the hands of Bibi that retains leadership in Israel would be bad for them but they shouldnt stop fighting as long as they have neighbors who want to do them harm.

They can play the blame game for centuries.
Bottom line is: BOTH sides made mistakes.

Sharon is at least looking at solutions to end conflict.
I don't agree with all of them, especially concerning the wall, but he made some good steps.

I think Bibi just wants to keep fighting/expanding boarders until the entire ME is Israel.

You basically just said, "How stupid the Israelis are for not just surrendering and letting the Arabs run them over."

So basically you said, "I'm just going to put words in your mouth to make your argument look foolish".

[OriginOfSymmetry]

dont worry about netanyahu, he and the likud have became a sad joke. half of their kneset members moved to kadima, those who left in there are mostly a right-winged hardliners, most of their voters left ither to kadima or further to the right, to the nationalist and religious parties.
as an israeli (who cant vote now, but will be able in the next elections) i see no voting option.
i appreciate sharon for getting out of gaza, but at the rest he's just horrible, and corrupted too.
id vote for the labour or meretz (further left) parties, but their leaders are simply bad. amir peretz, the labour party leader, is some sort of stalin, but making millions poor instead of dead.
there's also shinui, a party that works for the seperation of the religion form the state. they sound good, but i learnt from the past few years that all they want is to keep their seats at the goverment.

and sorry about the bad english

[Francisco Montana]

So, Erik. What's your proposal? Move Isreal to Brussels?

You basically just said, "How stupid the Israelis are for not just surrendering and letting the Arabs run them over."

At least we know now your true feelings on the subject.