3 Post-Conflict successes. What were their secrets to success?

[Farnan]

You consistently see nations that suffer from a civil war emerge from the war just to return to another civil war or under a tyrannic personality cult. However three nations have emerged from conflict to achieve a relative at least success. Count only nations whose civil wars ended post 1945

Those three are:

Northern Ireland - Came from a violent sectarian civil war and is now a mostly peaceful part of Britain. Some tensions remain but nothing like during the Northern Irish Civil War.

South Africa - The South African Civil War ended with the end of Apartheid in the 1990s. Today South Africa is a regional power in Southern Africa, and can be considered a middle power in the world.

China - The People's Republic emerged from nearly 50 years of Civil War in 1948. Today it is arguably the second most powerful nation in the world with a fairly liberal dictatorship.

What was their secret to success when so many others have failed?

[Hookah Smoking Caterpiller]

You consistently see nations that suffer from a civil war emerge from the war just to return to another civil war or under a tyrannic personality cult. However three nations have emerged from conflict to achieve a relative at least success. Count only nations whose civil wars ended post 1945

Those three are:

Northern Ireland - Came from a violent sectarian civil war and is now a mostly peaceful part of Britain. Some tensions remain but nothing like during the Northern Irish Civil War.

Interestingly with NI both sides have essentially realized that its fairly stupid and not worth the bloodshead, neither side really won, despite the 6 counties remaning in British hands.

South Africa - The South African Civil War ended with the end of Apartheid in the 1990s. Today South Africa is a regional power in Southern Africa, and can be considered a middle power in the world.

South Africa is suffering from massive internal problems, the AIDs epedemic, the failures of the ANC to create equality, the ANC is falling appart from internal corruption and the powerful supporting factions moving away from the Congress. I wouldn't be suprised if South Africa decends into internal conflict again soon. I can't really comment on why the conflict ended so peacefully, other than mandela's superb leadership of post Apartheit South Africa.

China - The People's Republic emerged from nearly 50 years of Civil War in 1948. Today it is arguably the second most powerful nation in the world with a fairly liberal dictatorship.

Well, Mao's purges and the intense repression of any dessent until now accounts for that, and the fact that the KMT are holed up in Taiwan with little chance of reclaming mainland china also contributed to the success of the PRC-post conflict; as the most likely opossition was unable to do much against the communists.

[CiviC]

Interestingly with NI both sides have essentially realized that its fairly stupid and not worth the bloodshead, neither side really won, despite the 6 counties remaning in British hands.

At least the last remains of Protestant Ascendancy ended, so it's a gain for Catholics but not as much as they hoped for.

[RollingWave]

China - The People's Republic emerged from nearly 50 years of Civil War in 1948. Today it is arguably the second most powerful nation in the world with a fairly liberal dictatorship.

What was their secret to success when so many others have failed?

a. it's now 60+ year, if you look at it say.. 30+ years (1978) China was pretty darn messed up too.

b. Mao essentially pushed "reset" button on China, which in literal terms involving killing all oppositions and the collateral damage was huge. he basically even declared war on the entire tradtion of China (and won, sort of)

[athanaric]

b. Mao essentially pushed "reset" button on China, which in literal terms involving killing all oppositions and the collateral damage was huge. he basically even declared war on the entire tradtion of China (and won, sort of)

Yeah, he succeeded in de-civilizing large parts of Chinese society, and destroying a lot of cultural artefacts. Not to mention there's his ugly arse-face staring at you from everywhere.

[Richard]

Yeah, he succeeded in de-civilizing large parts of Chinese society, and destroying a lot of cultural artefacts. Not to mention there's his ugly arse-face staring at you from everywhere.

What did he destroy?

[Armenum]

Allies become enemies, enemies allies. It's an never-ending, natural cycle in history. When considering post conflict successes one must consider this lurking variable in addition to all the other factors...

[Exarch]

Yeah, he succeeded in de-civilizing large parts of Chinese society, and destroying a lot of cultural artefacts. Not to mention there's his ugly arse-face staring at you from everywhere.

actually 2 world wars, famines and imperialism, ie the "century of Humiliation" accounted for the 'decivilisation' of parts of China-the era where warlords abounded after the fall of the Qing dyansty;
Mao's 'cultural revolution' was a power struggle that went awry and to be quite honest, ppl are deluding themselves if they truly believe a decade of 'cultural revolution' can undo millenia of Traditional Chinese culture and tradition.

Look at mainland China today, if Mao's 'cutural revolution' truly succeeded, then why is it that Chinese ppl today are still ardent practitioners of confucianism, worship chinese folk deities like Guan Yu and Matzu and celebrate Chinese New Year?
not to mention, defacing national monuments or artefacts is now considered a state crime in contemporary China.

[Exarch]

ur forgetting Wales

and i'd say a key technique for post conflict success was virtual extermination of Welsh culture in favour of English dominance.

[hellheaven1987]

Lets be honest, the only way to end a civil war effective is to purge all your enemies in full...

[Hookah Smoking Caterpiller]

ur forgetting Wales

and i'd say a key technique for post conflict success was virtual extermination of Welsh culture in favour of English dominance.

That didn't happen post 1945 did it now?

[Sphere]

Calling post civil war China a success is fairly laughable. More Chinese died in the post-civil war reorganization than all the people who died in WWII combined, that cannot be considered anything other than one of the greatest human tragedies in history. And for 30 odd years China was almost a complete economic failure while it neighbors Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong etc. thrived. Now that it has actually started to development a modern economy, it might seem to be a success, but from a per-capita perspective it is still rolling around in the mud compared to its prosperous neighbors and the west. It is still 20-30 years away from being a truly modern nation, which would be over a well century since the civil war ended. If thats your idea of a success, I would hate to see what you consider a failure.

[removeduser_487563287433]

Northern Ireland and South Africa are poor examples due to scale, the fact that South Africa's stability and good governance is not to be taken for granted and because that Northern Ireland has not been peaceful for long.

Malaysia's a good thing to look at.

[hellheaven1987]

Malaysia's a good thing to look at.

The problem is that Malaya Emergency did not emerge into a civil war stage; there were some insurgency, but not serious enough to have two organized armed force fighting each others.

[Vizsla]

Northern Ireland – not a civil war. Does not count. Wait and see.
South Africa – wait and see.
China – not a good role model.
Next question?

[motiv-8]

The problem is that Malaya Emergency did not emerge into a civil war stage; there were some insurgency, but not serious enough to have two organized armed force fighting each others.

But Malaysia is still observed as one of the first instances of successful counter-insurgency, precisely because a civil war was headed off.

[hellheaven1987]

But Malaysia is still observed as one of the first instances of successful counter-insurgency, precisely because a civil war was headed off.

It is good example for counter-insurgency, but insurgency is not a civil war; a true civil war is exactly like First Indochina War, when Vietminh already organized into regular formation and used conventional warfare to fight French.

If Chinese Communist formed battalions of Red Army in Malaya, then it can be called a civil war.

It's a great example of a counter-insurgency succeeding but on the other hand the conditions found in Malaysia during the 50's were quite exceptional, these could be hardly reproduced in today's counter-insurgency conflicts.

Not really. Generally, ther are two types of insurgency - either the insurgents have direct support from neighbouring countries and able to retreat to those countries for regroup, or the insurgents simply have to live within a small country and rely on local resource. Malaya Emergency is a classical example of second type of insurgency (which Cuba Revolution belongs to this type too).

[Claudius Gothicus]

Not really. Generally, ther are two types of insurgency - either the insurgents have direct support from neighbouring countries and able to retreat to those countries for regroup, or the insurgents simply have to live within a small country and rely on local resource. Malaya Emergency is a classical example of second type of insurgency (which Cuba Revolution belongs to this type too).

Oversimplification much?

The specials conditions of the Malayan society include the ethnically Chinese backgrounds of most insurgents(something which detached them from the rest of the Malayan society), the political tool of National Devolution used by the Brits in order to gain popular support through the denouncement of the insurgency as a cause for continued colonial presence(which was true), the Insurgents isolation from international support(Moscow or Beijing), the sense of solidarity between the British forces and the Malayan population that generated because of the WWII combats and cooperation and the use of nationalism as a weapon against communism which was seen as becoming a satellite of China where factors specifically attached to the Malayan Crisis, those situations could be hardly reproduced in other counter-insurgency conflicts.

Some recipes however can still be used today though.

[Claudius Gothicus]

Malaysia's a good thing to look at.

It's a great example of a counter-insurgency succeeding but on the other hand the conditions found in Malaysia during the 50's were quite exceptional, these could be hardly reproduced in today's counter-insurgency conflicts.

[Azog 150]

^^^Northern Ireland was a Civil War.


As for why it was a success (although that has yet to be seen- short term its been successful though), it was down to the people of Northern Ireland realising that carrying on after 30 years of bloodshed was pointless. It was down to both sides sitting down and talking with their rivals rather then trying to blow them up/shoot them.

Saying that, there are still some in Northern Ireland who have tried to drag on the violence.