Economic Rise of China

[dgoodman]

I feel like throwing this around for a bit. The US isnt doing too bad economically right now as oil prices are stabilizing and market is starting to climb. Europe is slumbing a bit but the new members to the EU are growing quickly and more are set to join soon. However China, and to a lesser extend India, are the states experiencing extremely rapid increases in economic growth and political influence. When do you think the rise of China (or India) will be strong enough to challenge or coopt the western Hegemony over global economic activity?

Personally I think the Chinese economy is getting there but still has to ditch off the last vestiges of Maoist rule. Growth is high but demographic challenges and political disruptions may throw the country off track like has happen before this century. I feel that within 15 years, the Chinese market will be able to stand with or against the western ones as a free capitalist system with slight hints of Japan style mercantalism present. Hopefully the US will not start an economic fight with them by imposing protectionist measures because it is not one were likely to win.

Post your thoughts, i just want to see the general perspective of this group.

[imb39]

China will eventually over take America. As to when, I haven't a clue. America's achilles heel is its debt. China still has so much to develop and look at the economic power they are beginning to bring to bear. Admittedly a fraction of America's power, but that will change. As to when - I haven't a clue. I went with 2025, but to be honest, it would be much later than that. Also, power ebbs and flows. America has it - but it will decline. It is the way things happen.

[Guderian]

I voted 2025. But I think it will be 2040 at least. China will not adopt the same economy that America has, they will go for more of a mixed economy IMO, much like that of europe but with more government control.

[Kanaric]

In the near future. Possibly by 2010-2015 it will be on par due to its cost of labor... everything there is cheaper. It will probably have the same economic power probably by 2025. If it takes longer than that I will be SURPRISED. Some economists have projected that it will be by 2010 though.

Their government can afford to wait, they are authoritarian and as a result can keep policy and the Chinese have a history of long term goals. To us our goals will be something in the near future, like by next year. To China something that takes 20-100 years is a worthy and accomplishable goal. That has existed as philosophy throughout its history.

[Atheist Peace]

I voted 2015, I think it will be sometime between about 2010 and 2015-2020, but it inevitably is going to happen sometime soon.

[waitcu]

you guys are completely wrong . i am from china and still live in china now . althought i am living in the biggest and the flourishingest city Guangzhou in the south of china , i can tell you guys , the econmoic of china could not reach USA in 50 years , even in 100 years i suppose .
if you come to my city or Beijing , Shanghai ,Shenzhen , you will find , wow , China is a developed country !!!!
if you notice the GDP growing point of china , you will find thats so crazy , more than 9.0 per year.
if you live in china for days , you will find , all the goods are so cheap ,the tax is low , it seems that people are live in a good country .
but if you go the the countryside , you will find the farmers just have a low income , the "low tax" for them is "very high tax" , many farmers in china just can earn 1000 US dollars per year , some farmers just can earn no more than 300 us dollars per years . about 8 hundred millions this kind of farmers have no social security , no retirement pension . they even use original farming tool from archaic time . millions of millions workers live in cites losing their work . what's more in the government it had many many corrupt officers . etc , to solve these problem it will take a long long long time . not just like you guys said in 10 , 20 years .

[Fenris]

you guys are completely wrong . i am from china and still live in china now . althought i am living in the biggest and the flourishingest city Guangzhou in the south of china , i can tell you guys , the econmoic of china could not reach USA in 50 years , even in 100 years i suppose .
if you come to my city or Beijing , Shanghai ,Shenzhen , you will find , wow , China is a developed country !!!!
if you notice the GDP growing point of china , you will find thats so crazy , more than 9.0 per year.
if you live in china for days , you will find , all the goods are so cheap ,the tax is low , it seems that people are live in a good country .
but if you go the the countryside , you will find the farmers just have a low income , the "low tax" for them is "very high tax" , many farmers in china just can earn 1000 US dollars per year , some farmers just can earn no more than 300 us dollars per years . about 8 hundred millions this kind of farmers have no social security , no retirement pension . they even use original farming tool from archaic time . millions of millions workers live in cites losing their work . what's more in the government it had many many corrupt officers . etc , to solve these problem it will take a long long long time . not just like you guys said in 10 , 20 years .

Sadly, economical power is not calculated by healthy inner economical developpement.

[Kanaric]

you guys are completely wrong . i am from china and still live in china now . althought i am living in the biggest and the flourishingest city Guangzhou in the south of china , i can tell you guys , the econmoic of china could not reach USA in 50 years , even in 100 years i suppose .
if you come to my city or Beijing , Shanghai ,Shenzhen , you will find , wow , China is a developed country !!!!
if you notice the GDP growing point of china , you will find thats so crazy , more than 9.0 per year.
if you live in china for days , you will find , all the goods are so cheap ,the tax is low , it seems that people are live in a good country .
but if you go the the countryside , you will find the farmers just have a low income , the "low tax" for them is "very high tax" , many farmers in china just can earn 1000 US dollars per year , some farmers just can earn no more than 300 us dollars per years . about 8 hundred millions this kind of farmers have no social security , no retirement pension . they even use original farming tool from archaic time . millions of millions workers live in cites losing their work . what's more in the government it had many many corrupt officers . etc , to solve these problem it will take a long long long time . not just like you guys said in 10 , 20 years .

China allready has almost the same buying power as the US. Their per capita GDP might be low but the billions of people where you live can still mean a more powerful economy. Especially since EVERYTHING that you can buy in the US is made in China. I dont think their is ONE thing that isn't now a days. At LEAST it would have parts made in the country.

Sadly, economical power is not calculated by healthy inner economical developpement.

Yes.... its completely true. Korea and Japan used to be like this until the late 80s, with korea, and about 20-30 years after WW2 with Japan. Japan is a powerhouse, and korea has a good economy. Only reason they dont dominate is because Korea, for example, is a small country. Japanese products are expensive however their quality is diminishing which is why their economy is in trouble. Most of the things that used to be Made in Japan are now made in China.

[1{H][NA]

i agree with waitcu, 80%+ of chinas's population is still basically living in dirt poverty. plus there is also the question of social stability in china, as there have been some recent signs of outcry in the population. and with the unpreditability of oil prices, it hard to predict whether or not china's economy is strong enough to withstand a surge in prices.

[dgoodman]

I agree with waitcu for the most part, however I feel that it will be much shorter for China to be on par in economic performance. They have a still backward's rural population, however this population is moving into the cities on an extraordianry scale. If you feel that the immigration problem in the us is bad, look at china. There there are over 100 million migrant workers donig odd jobs in the cities. They have much less education and acess to social services than urban Cinese but at the same time are a driving force in their economy. Although the countryside is still relatively backward, technology is beginning to spread due to migrants returinging with cell phones and other luxuries to their villages. I feel that the scale of the transformation will only intensify untill most of the population has moved to the cities and by then China should be on top economically.

[Lee1026]

I disagree. People said the exact things about the USA in the late 1800s that they are currently saying about china. Huge gap bewteen rich and poor. Not anywhere as industrilized as the west, and all that. And 100 years later, look who's right.

[dgoodman]

I disagree. People said the exact things about the USA in the late 1800s that they are currently saying about china. Huge gap bewteen rich and poor. Not anywhere as industrilized as the west, and all that. And 100 years later, look who's right.

My point exactly, but the gap is still there in the US in a sense, but its in the cities because all the farmers moved to the cities and only a certain number got ahead. Look at NO after Katrina, the blacks in major cities are usually all descendants of slaves or sharecroppers and even today few have climbed to the top. In 50 years, china will also have huge slums in or outside of its major cities. The remaining peaseants will by then have mechanized the agriculture and less people will work the land. But again, it will take at least several decades in not generations to play out.

[Caelius]

As lee1026 has already pointed out, anyone who is knowledgable beyond basic economics as well as China's current demographic, political, and social situations would know that they simply have too many bridges to cross before their "inevitable crushing of the US" ever occurs. Their current economic growth rate will be impossible to sustain in the next few years as the growth of their middle class levels out or their currency no longer proped up, and in all likely hood China's economic growth will be much in the same way as Japan's during the 1980s (a period of time where they also posted huge growth rates and doomsayers predicted the fall of the US even though it was ranked 2nd for a short time).

[dgoodman]

The rise of japan is not the rise of China, china is ten times as big as japan and has further to go in per capita imporvement. Thus it is not near the end of its growth but at the initial stages. The only issue of debate for me is the speed of its progress.and in some measures, quality of life and per capita gdp Japan did take over US,(i may be wrong) but not in economic size.

[Lee1026]

I was thinking that we can draw a analogy bewteen the rise of the US and the rise of China, China right now is in the position that the US is in about 1830. By then US is a respectable power. and they want to overtake England. Their economy is based mainly on cheap labor, and they compete on price, not quality. By this expolation then, China should catch up sometimes in the early 2100s.

[Carach]

their growth isnt sustainable...something will cause their collapse before they ever make it.

[Tom Paine]

The nation is politically and socially unstable, its moving in the direction of Gorbachev-era USSR without the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. I'd say its less than likely to be in this half of the century.
Comparative GDP/capita (purchasing power parity): China $5,600, USA $40,100.
Economic Growth: China 9.1%, USA 4.4%
Human Developement Index: People's Republic of China 0.755, United States 0.944
The last is not admittedly an economic measure but I think its pertinent.

[Erik]

I think China wil overtake the US in 2020, but I votes 2025 to be on the safe side.

The US economy isn't sustainable, every expert knows this.
The US had to borrow billion a year, especially from China, to avoid collapse.
One day the Chineese wil stop investing in America and shift more towards their own market.
This wil cause a collapse of the dollar, and a global economic crises (which is bad for China too), but it's inevitable.

[Big War Bird]

I think China wil overtake the US in 2020, but I votes 2025 to be on the safe side.

The US economy isn't sustainable, every expert knows this.
The US had to borrow billion a year, especially from China, to avoid collapse.
One day the Chineese wil stop investing in America and shift more towards their own market.
This wil cause a collapse of the dollar, and a global economic crises (which is bad for China too), but it's inevitable.

Ignore this man.

Comparing the the US and Chinese economies and their relative future strengths is a flawed way to derive some sort of future balance of global hegemony, IMO. While most everyone agrees that China will eventually overtake the USA in GDP, translating that into diplomatic extremely tough for China. First China does not currently have undisputed aboslute superiority over its neighbors. Japan, Russia and India all have significant economic power, any two of them can probably serve as legitimate diplomatic alternatives to other nations in the region that would keep Chinese ambitions in check. Meanwhile the political liberalization that *should* accompany China's rising economic power will drastically alter both China's foreign policy goals and everyone else's preception of them.

[Tom Paine]

And China relies on America; America's collapse screws everyone's economies.