Australia vs Indonesia
Given that the Australia vs Canada scenario in another thread was too silly for words, how about a real 'What If'. Whenever the Australian armed forces conducts war games the 'Red Team' is always closely modelled on our large neighbour to the north and given that Indonesia and Australia came to the brink of a shooting war over East Timor in 1999, a scenario where Australia finally goes to war with Indonesia is an actual possibility.
Try this:-
1. Indonesia's experiment with democracy fails under the weight of corruption, internal scandals and Javanese frustration with continuing regional separatist movements. The politically powerful military, marginalised since the fall of Suharto, mount a coup and politically-oriented generals, backed by Kopassus special forces troops, establish a hardline junta.
2. Relations between Jakarta and Canberra steadily sour as the new Indonesian regime cracks down hard on separatists in Aceh and West Papua. Pro-Jakarta elements in the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs are shunted aside by Defence Ministry pragmatists, as Indonesia openly backs West Timorese militias in cross border raids into the fledgeling state of East Timor.
3. Tensions rise as Australia deploys a new, UN-flagged force to East Timor at the request of President Xanana Gusmao. Escalating border-skirmishes between Australian troops and West Timorese militias. The Australian press alleges Kopassus involvement in cross-border raids, which Jakarta denies.
4. Concurrently, spiralling law and order problems in Papua New Guinea lead to a military coup in Port Morseby. Resisting strong Australian and international diplomatic pressure, the Papuan military junta encourages West Papuan insurgents against Indonesia. Australia cuts all aid to Papua New Guinea. Papua funnels arms to West Papuan rebels in return for promised resources from rebel zones as the newly armed rebels make inroads against an already overstretched Indonesian Army.
5. Jakarta moves more forces into West Papua to deal with the emboldened rebels. Civilian massacres make international headlines.
6. Spurred by media reports of junta oppression of non-Papuans and Australian citizens, Canberra intervenes militarily in Papua New Guinea, otherthrowing the junta and re-imposing protectorate status on Papua. Taken with ongoing clashes with Australian-led troops in East Timor, setbacks in Aceh and an increasingly strong alliance between the Indonesian junta and militant Islamic groups, the junta ratchets up the anti-Australian rhetoric. Massive anti-Australian protests in Java and the Australian Embassy in Jakarta is bombed. Jama Islamia claims responsibility, citing Australian intervention in Timor and New Guinea.
7. Huge protests against the junta in Jakarta and other major Javanese cities brutally repressed. Indonesian offensives in Aceh and West Papua, involving civilian massacres, widely reported. Fifteen Australian troops from 1RAR killed in a cross border firefight in East Timor and, on the same day, Australian mining company executives are arrested and summarily executed by Kopassus troops in West Papua. Anti-Indonesian outcry in the Australian media.
8. Huge protests in all Australian capital cities demanding a concerted response to Indonesian military aggression. The UN Security Council passes resolution condemning the Indonesian junta. Cross-border skirmishing between Australian troops in Papua New Guinea and Indonesian forces in West Papua. Unconfirmed reports of Australian SAS units already operating in West Papua.
9. An RAAF flight over the Torres Strait overflying Australian naval vessels en route to Papua New Guinea attack Indonesian warplanes, downing several. The Jakarta junta declares open war on Australia.
Given this fictional scenario, what happens next?
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Originally Posted by imb39
