How will Iraq look like in 2015?

[Il-Principe]

The retreat of US forces is in full swing. By the end of 2011 the last American troops will have abandoned Iraq. But what will happen next? Certain circles keep telling us that the surge has worked and that Iraq is now a democracy. But fact is that Iraq still doesn't have a new working government, although the elections were in March...Fact is also that new waves of violence have rocked Iraq. See here for the most recent attacks; insurgents targeted 13 cities on the 25.8:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/26/wo...exprod=myyahoo

So how will Iraq look like in 2015? Will it be a shining beacon of democracy converting other Middle Eastern countries to liberalism and democracy like the Bushists claimed? Or will Iraq return to dictatorship and the whole war was for nothing?


You can vote multiple times as some options are not mutually exclusive.


Edit: It should read "haven" and not "heaven" (fits somehow too) in the voting options. Some mod please correct this.

[Lord Mandelson]

Generic Muslim Failed State. Can we make GMFS an official acronym, please?

[Il-Principe]

Generic Muslim Failed State. Can we make GMFS an official acronym, please?

Probably better GeMFS. Easier to pronounce.

[JP226]

rivers of chocolate. Gummie bears growing on trees. Perfect green pastures and no liberals.

[Theseus1234]

I suppose the U.S. will try to impose a liberal democracy, while in truth they're trying to prop up the corpse of a GFM (gonna propagate this one, Mandelson!)

[Gunderic]

There will be the rich leaders, most shi'ite.

They will still be advised and given resources by the USA.

The oil must flow.

Unrealistic outcome: Kuwait 2.0
Best likely outcome; think Yemen
Not a total failure: think like Syria
Failure: Shi'ite theocracy; Iran

[Thorn777]

They will start a new Mesophotanic-Persian empire and crush the US to there then establish a republic run by rappers and reallity tv stars.

[Claudius Gothicus]

GMFS or maybe a populist pseudo democracy Chavez Style.

[LSJ]

Not necessarily in 2015, but;

A country with a somewhat stable economy, a mostly stable government, running a democratic state with many limitations to human rights and trade, with a modest military with strong economic/political ties to the US since it can't function by itself, divided into two main regions - an autonomous and slightly better off Kurdistan, and the mostly-united rest of Iraq, with smaller scale problems involving various militias and terrorist organizations, that sometimes cause damage to the country and cost lives, but are for the most part weak and can be handled by the government forces. It has fairly good relations with Iran and Syria to the USA's dismay, but also retains good relations with most of 'The West', and is re-establishing trade with Kuwait. It has good relations with Turkey, and puts effort into battling the PKK, which is less tolerated within Iraq due to the damage it does to Iraq's interests. Its infrastructure is improving, but slowly, due to a lack of funds and low economic efficiency.

A Weak Eastern Democracy Reliant on Western Support With Small-Scale Intra-National Conflict That Is In Danger of Becoming a Fractured and Failed State. Or a WEDROWSWSSINCTIIDOBAFAFS.

Not an easy acronym.

[Theseus1234]

Not necessarily in 2015, but;

A country with a somewhat stable economy, a mostly stable government, running a democratic state with many limitations to human rights and trade, with a modest military with strong economic/political ties to the US since it can't function by itself, divided into two main regions - an autonomous and slightly better off Kurdistan, and the mostly-united rest of Iraq, with smaller scale problems involving various militias and terrorist organizations, that sometimes cause damage to the country and cost lives, but are for the most part weak and can be handled by the government forces. It has fairly good relations with Iran and Syria to the USA's dismay, but also retains good relations with most of 'The West', and is re-establishing trade with Kuwait. It has good relations with Turkey, and puts effort into battling the PKK, which is less tolerated within Iraq due to the damage it does to Iraq's interests. Its infrastructure is improving, but slowly, due to a lack of funds and low economic efficiency.

I think Kurdistan will be a separate struggle. Even if Iraq becomes a semi-stable democracy, most leaders are going to want to keep the territory and Kurds would be underrepresented on many levels

A Weak Eastern Democracy Reliant on Western Support With Small-Scale Intra-National Conflict That Is In Danger of Becoming a Fractured and Failed State. Or a WEDROWSWSSINCTIIDOBAFAFS.Not an easy acronym.

That sounds fun to say say though, pronounced "Wed-row-ssswinct-e-do-baf-afs"

[mrmouth]

Not necessarily in 2015, but;

A country with a somewhat stable economy, a mostly stable government, running a democratic state with many limitations to human rights and trade, with a modest military with strong economic/political ties to the US since it can't function by itself, divided into two main regions - an autonomous and slightly better off Kurdistan, and the mostly-united rest of Iraq, with smaller scale problems involving various militias and terrorist organizations, that sometimes cause damage to the country and cost lives, but are for the most part weak and can be handled by the government forces. It has fairly good relations with Iran and Syria to the USA's dismay, but also retains good relations with most of 'The West', and is re-establishing trade with Kuwait. It has good relations with Turkey, and puts effort into battling the PKK, which is less tolerated within Iraq due to the damage it does to Iraq's interests. Its infrastructure is improving, but slowly, due to a lack of funds and low economic efficiency.

A Weak Eastern Democracy Reliant on Western Support With Small-Scale Intra-National Conflict That Is In Danger of Becoming a Fractured and Failed State. Or a WEDROWSWSSINCTIIDOBAFAFS.

Not an easy acronym.

This sums up what I feel, almost perfectly. And I think it is the most likely scenario.

In essence, I think the political difficulties work themselves out, and Iraq in 5 years, isn't much different than now, aside from having a government.

I would be interested in knowing why people think Iraq will fail. The crutch that was used in order to justify the collective head turn that allowed foreign radicals to kills tens of thousands, in the form of a crusader army that was occupying their country, is no longer a factor. How exactly does Iraq turn into a failed state? It is pretty simple to just think it will.

And then how many of those people ever thought Iraq would have made this much progress...

[removeduser_4536284751384]

Like Turkey or Egypt I hope.

[Sphere]

I think a lot depends on who is the next PM. If the Shia's oust Maliki and find someone they can agree on to form a government I think Iraq could lapse back into civil war. It seems evident that the Sunni groups still have Al Qaeda on speed dial in case they become alienated from the Iraqi state, and I have little faith that a Shia government would work at placating these Sunni Tribal groups.

On the other hand if Allawi is able to form an alliance of his own, possibly with the Kurdish parties, I think there is hope that Iraq can continue to progress. He is the only leader that has any prospect of bridging the internal divides in Iraqi society to reach a lasting compromise of political power.

[BlackPirate]

I believe in 2015 a new pc game called Iraq:Total war will be made

[hellheaven1987]

I believe in 2015 a new pc game called Iraq:Total war will be made

It probably would be called ARMA III, which allows you to play insurgents.

[mic1402]

America should really trying to put American type republic's everywhere, the only place it has worked well is in America.

[Poach]

America should really trying to put American type republic's everywhere, the only place it has worked well is in America.

It's a good thing they didn't set up a US-style government in Iraq then, hmm? Iraq is a Parliamentary Republic.

[skag]

hey, USA have been there for freedom !
So it will be a democracy

I'm quite surprised most of you indirectly says that Iraq war was a total fail

I mean ...
USA decided for Iraq people to free them from the bad Saddam, so they must decide for Iraq people to have a democracy and not a failed country
Otherwise USA putted fire on middle for no reason
which is impossible, why all those thousands dead ??

[The Noble Lord]

The best thing for Iraq would be for Ba'ath Party to come back to power. Other than that is chaos and destruction!

[Tajir]

The best thing for Iraq would be for Ba'ath Party to come back to power. Other than that is chaos and destruction!

I strongly agree with this. Deposing the Ba'ath regime instead of cooperating and rebuilding relations will ultimately be America's biggest mistake and it will probably go down as the most costly political miscalculation in history.