Afghanistan war

[BlackPirate]

What will happen in the end?I believe that NATO will realise that it cannot win the war militarily and will withdraw the majority of its forces.Some elite units will stay in Kabul though to protect Afghan government (leaving the rest of Afghanistan to various Taliban or not warlords)

[antaeus]

it's not about winning a war. it's about reducing the taliban threat to the point that it can be managed by the afghan government within the context of internal security.

nato & the US don't need to win a war. they simply need to provide enough security that people can get on with their lives. over time commitment can be scaled back as better trained afghan forces come online and replace them in the field. (in theory)

nobody is under any illusion that fundamentalist islam can or even should be defeated. people should be allowed their own values. what nato and the us are trying to do is reduce the military threat and convince people that the central government can provide for them - that their grievances can be heard and listened to without resorting to violence.

of course... while the central government is corrupt the taliban remain a legitimate threat simply because they offer the rule of law, i don't see anyone clamouring for reform in the central government just yet... so the ideal solution would be to strengthen the government to the point where it can maintain order... then hope reform follows with security... unlikely.

[persianfan247]

Of course the Taliban would be as equally corrupt in the end, but that is not necessarily apparent to the Afghan people.

[Hattushilish]

The key is finding something that average Joe Afghan can do for a living other than wage war. After 30 years of virtually nonstop war the economy of Afghanistan doesn't have much to offer a hotblooded young man. There isn't much of a market for goods and services, but there is a market for fighters and the Taliban pays a living wage.
As long as it remains difficult for young men to earn an honest living, the temptation to join the Taliban will be there.

[hellheaven1987]

The key is finding something that average Joe Afghan can do for a living other than wage war. After 30 years of virtually nonstop war the economy of Afghanistan doesn't have much to offer a hotblooded young man. There isn't much of a market for goods and services, but there is a market for fighters and the Taliban pays a living wage.
As long as it remains difficult for young men to earn an honest living, the temptation to join the Taliban will be there.

Funny enough current situation in Afganistan is all started because its economical failure in 60s.

[Valiant Champion]

Maybe they should invite adventurous americans to bring their hunting rifles over and hunt taliban for fun? Some people over here would probably pay good money so they can go on safari and shoot the most challenging game on the planet. If stone age nimrods could wipe out entire genera of prehistoric megafuana , including cave lions, with a flint tipped spear I am sure more can be done with a more modern hunting spear (the scoped rifle). Just get the politicians and rules of war out of the way.

[chamaeleo]

Maybe they should invite adventurous americans to bring their hunting rifles over and hunt taliban for fun? Some people over here would probably pay good money so they can go on safari and shoot the most challenging game on the planet. If stone age nimrods could wipe out entire genera of prehistoric megafuana , including cave lions, with a flint tipped spear I am sure more can be done with a more modern hunting spear (the scoped rifle). Just get the politicians and rules of war out of the way.

Good idea! We might even adopt a few standard US game-ranch practices, such as setting the brave hunters in blinds overlooking poppy fields...then release starved prisoners armed with flintlocks from well concealed cages. Just think of the goodwill this'd propagate throughout the civilized world.

Seriously, unless they're carrying a katana and a bible I really doubt the actual fortitude of dickwaving gun-nuts.

I personally expect a repeat, with slight variation, of the Soviet-era pullout. There's simply no incentive to waste more resources on this hopeless cause, while there's so much need for them back home.

[Poach]

I forsee the Afghan war going as such: NATO Forces will continue to fight and train the ANA/ANP. Eventually, as in Iraq, we'll be able to withdraw the majority of our forces from the country and hand it over to the national security forces.

From there it'll go two ways: Either the ANA/ANP will be strong enough to deal with the Taliban (who will be greatly reduced in number once the evil foreign oppressors can no longer he used as a propaganda tool) and be engaged in low-intensity warfare for the next few years/decade or so, or they'll buckle and we'll have to go in again and repeat the whole cycle.

[Azog 150]

I forsee the Afghan war going as such: NATO Forces will continue to fight and train the ANA/ANP. Eventually, as in Iraq, we'll be able to withdraw the majority of our forces from the country and hand it over to the national security forces.

That's a pretty optimistic scenario. I predict casualties continuing to rise and public support continuing to dwindle until our politicians are forced to pull out prematurely. Unfortunately I think that's a more likely scenario.

[Poach]

Depends entirely on how successful Pakistan is in attacking the Taliban heartland in their own country. If they do well, my scenario may play out; if they do poorly, then your scenario is indeed more likely.

Though I doubt we'll pull out without atleast making sure they have a forlorn hope at victory. Even in Iraq when British public opinion was rabidly anti-war and our troops were confined to Basra Airport to stop any casualties, we continued to train the Iraqi Army and Navy and to this today continue to do so.

[myrmidones]

I just hope that the ISAF, US, UK etc dont leave anytime soon, Iran+Afghani OPFORS= danger to the whole world (increased terrorist activitis and maybe nuclear threats)

[Heathen Hammer]

In a couple of years NATO will either leave or "buy" Taliban's loyalty and call them "freedom fighters" again.

[Ace_General]

Afganistan is just to underdevloped and spread out

At least with Iraq there was a legacy of Civilization and doing stuff instead of growing poppies and manufacturing drugs and fighting every miltary in the world since the Persian empire

The governments that actually ruled afganistan had a very decentralized approach and left the tribal regions alone while focusing on developing central Afghanistan like Kabul

They talked about having a multi state solution for Iraq but it would work much better for Afghanistan or at least they could have semi -autonomous tribal regions and having a weak centeral government with a strong local government as they havent reached to level of devlopment to have leaders that would really think outside of their clan/tribe/enthic group and do something for the good of the nations

[chamaeleo]

It's projected that with the investment of many billions in economic development, if everything goes according to plan (!) Afghanistan will double its GDP within 10 years...to become on par with Chad. At this rate those mineral resources had BETTER pan out.