A Major War in the Middle East

[Yoni]

What do you think are the chances of a next major war between a coalition of Arab states and Israel, like the ones in 48', 67' and 73'.

[Amagi]

Israel is her own greatest enemy.

[Poach]

Aside from Amagi's pointless answer: Not likely. None of the Arab nations have the will to fight Isreal, especially as her Armies are still far superior to the Arab ones and they're also battle hardened. Isreali-US relations may have taken a hit or two, but they're not bad enough to mean the US won't back Isreal up.

[Amagi]

I voted yes. The nuclear armed subs, the ever increasing pressure from the international community, the inability to make even slightest concessions, I think Israel will do something very stupid in a not too distinct future.

[hellheaven1987]

Na no, who want to piss US??

[simplemind07]

Na no, who want to piss US??

About.........well almost everyone

[Nikos]

There will not be another major Israeli Arab war in the ME in the foreseeable future. Iraq and Jordan are pretty much neutralized as Israeli enemies as Saddam is gone and Jordan and Israel have rather good relations. So that leaves Egypt, Syria and the Gulf States. Syria is too weak to do anything by themselves, and I doubt Egypt wants any more war with Israel, seeing as Israel may not be so inclined to return any captured territory this time around. And the Gulf States? You can forget about them attacking Israel, too much rests on their business contracts with the West, chiefly the USA.

However, there is a chance of Israel taking action on Iran and it's nuclear sites, although I doubt a full scale war will develop between the 2 nations. I think the 100,000+ US and coalition troops in Iraq would have a say in Iran retaliating against Israel. I also doubt Iran would commit itself against the USA in a war. The Mullahs are oppressive and fanatical, but they are not stupid.

That just leaves Turkey. Although the Turkish population and gov't have had a falling out with Israel recently, the 2 countries are more or less on amiable terms.

[Farnan]

There is no leader of the Arab World like there was in '73 so no.

In '67 and '73 Egypt was the leader of the Arab World. Nassir and then Sadat were able to dominate Arab politics and bring them together to a coalition. However since the Camp David Accords and the assassination of Sadat Egypt fell from it position and no nation rose to take its place. The Saudis try but they have to many internal problems and other Arabs consider them insane.

[SiamWarrior]

Could Turkey side with the Arabs ?

Could the Arabs get together in a pact ? when underneath it all Arab hates Arab.

I doubt that it could ever get to like it was before with all arabs against Israel.

Egypt is the only possible, they look as though they want to flex their might by opening that border !

Israel needs to offer some kind of olive branch now, you just can't keep slapping your neighbours down forever !

[Sphere]

Another Arab-Persian war is possible. They had a proxy war in 2007, and now Iran is agitating with their missile and nuclear programs. The UAE still has land claims against Iran, and Iraq and Kuwait have shipping/oil claims. There has been anti-shia backlash in several Arab states, more so as Iran has tried to extend its reach through non-state actors.

If things went south in Iraq, and one side stepped in you could see a war occur. The US is trying to head off an arms race, but it remains to be seen if they will be successful. I mean, when theres oil money involved, if there's a will, there's a way.

[Amagi]

Turkey threatens action; Israel on alert

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Posted on May 31, 2010 at 19:28



New Delhi: Turkey has threatened Israel with unprecedented action after Israeli forces attacked an aid vessel, killing 10 peace activists headed to Gaza.Israel said 10 people died while those on the ship said at least 15 were killed.

A shocked world has responded with outrage. Turkey recalled its ambassador to Israel and warned of unprecedented and incalculable reprisals.
Two Turkish activists were reported to be among those killed in the flotilla. Ankara warned that further supply vessels will be sent to Gaza, escorted by the Turkish Navy, a development with unpredictable consequences.
Israel has sounded an alert throughout the country fearing rocket attacks by Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Arab League has called an urgent meeting on Tuesday to decide on a common response. Egypt is under pressure to end the blockade of Gaza while Greece has cancelled a military exercise with Isreal.
The world is waiting for the response from Washington, how will President Obama react to the provocation from America's closest ally.
(With inputs from Agencies)
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/turkey-th.../116743-2.html

A very good comment on this:

If Turkey is promising to send new supplies with naval escort, then we’re headed for an epic showdown between two of Americas closest allies. I don’t think Obama is getting too much rest and relaxation this Memorial Day.
Meanwhile, the Arab League will meet tomorrow and put immense pressure on Egypt to lift their portion of the Gazan blockade.[I think they already lifted it- amagi] I can’t imagine that Egypt will refuse. In fact, I think Israel has jeopardized their peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan.
All this, and for what? To keep construction materials from the Gazan people? Israel is not behaving in anything resembling a rational manner. They just lost the only friends they had not named America. And who can help them now but Big Daddy? The problem is that Big Daddy has more to consider than Israeli’s deluded interests. We have to worry about our own image and international relationships.

http://blogs.alternet.org/speakeasy/...-naval-escort/

this might very well be the beginning of the hot phase of ww3.



Edit:
Official: US Will Stand with Israel

[SiamWarrior]

Truth be told Israel would be backed by the US if in a war situation, so answer has to be no.

Arab countries will moan a little but never call themselves to arms it would be suicide !

Now Turkey are a different matter they have a big army and might use this situation to invade northern Iraq and make their way down through Lebenon claiming to be Muslim peacekeepers, I could see that happening while they are doing this they could be sorting out the Kurds at the same time.

Possible !

[Nikos]

this might very well be the beginning of the hot phase of ww3.

Nothing is going to happen

[Amagi]

Nikos, I think Israel went too far this time. This will not go unanswered. The entire world is furious. gaza was an outrage already, but this time harsh political action will be demanded, especially in the arab countries, turkey, and russia condemned the Israeli actions aswell.

I would not underrestimate the situation. Just few days ago we learned, that there are 3 nucear armed submarines on their way to the iranian coast...

[Nikos]

Nikos, I think Israel went too far this time. This will not go unanswered. The entire world is furious. gaza was an outrage already, but this time harsh political action will be demanded, especially in the arab countries, turkey, and russia condemned the Israeli actions aswell.

I would not underrestimate the situation. Just few days ago we learned, that there are 3 nucear armed submarines on their way to the iranian coast...

I think there will be lots of rhetoric, but that is it. Really, no one is in a position right now to escalate things into a full blown conflict. There will be a war, but one of words.

Now Turkey are a different matter they have a big army and might use this situation to invade northern Iraq and make their way down through Lebenon claiming to be Muslim peacekeepers, I could see that happening while they are doing this they could be sorting out the Kurds at the same time.

Possible !

Sure it's possible, if Turkey wants to commit political suicide. I doubt Turkey would risk it's close ties to the USA to aid their so called "Muslim Brothers". Turkey and the USA have too much of a good thing going.

[Amagi]

The turkish government will be overthrown if they dont act.

[Nikos]

The turkish government will be overthrown if they dont act.

No it won't, you and others are overreacting WAY too much here.

[SiamWarrior]

This argument could go on all night, the Middle East is one big mess !

I believe the US are itching for a big war there in that area and to spread it out, they would love a full blown war to push their reformation of the Middle East forward !

And maybe Turkey is part of the US plan alongside Israel, to carve up the middle east between them.

[nce_wht_guy]

Israel done ed up.

[Exarch]

israel had nuke subs?
then wtf are they ing about iran having nukes for?