The Northern Sea Trade Rout, Suez/Aden and other geopolitics.

[Kjertesvein]

This is about the geopolitical side of global warming in the artic; hard-line Islamic influence, and it's effect on international trade.



The voyage only became possible because of climate change ^. Global warming opens new Arctic shipping lane:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Two german ships, The merchant ships MV Beluga Fraternity and MV Beluga crossing the North-Eastern Passage:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

"We have saved not only voyage time - around 10 days, worth around $200,000 - but also, we've been able to save fossil fuels in the amount of around 200 tons per ship, and at a cost of around $90,000," said company spokesperson Verena Beckhusen.


The Northeast Passage could shave some 5,400 km off some traditional routes

Global warming opens new Arctic shipping lane
Northeast Passage through the Arctic slashes time and money for mariners and could be a boom for Russia. But it raises concerns about ice loss induced by global warming.


Moscow
Mariners have dreamed for centuries of finding a commercially viable shortcut between Europe and Asia across the top of the world. Many have died trying, but none succeeded until late September, when two German freighters slipped quietly into Rotterdam Harbor after completing a historic month-long journey from Vladivostok, in Russia's Pacific far east, through the once-impassable Arctic route.
The Bremen-based company that operates the two specially reinforced cargo ships, the Beluga Fraternity and the Beluga Foresight, that made the journey said that taking the new route saved 10 days and $300,000 per ship over the usual 11,000 nautical-mile voyage through the Indian Ocean, the Suez Canal, and the Mediterranean in order to reach the North Atlantic.
"We are all very proud and delighted to be the first Western shipping company which has successfully transited the legendary Northeast Passage," the Beluga company said in a statement. It plans to begin using the route on a regular basis.
The bad news, scientists say, is that the feat only became possible because the Arctic icecap is retreating at an alarming rate, leaving vast swaths of open water where solid pack ice recently frustrated attempts at even summer navigation. This year saw the third-lowest amount of Arctic sea ice on record, after the record set in 2007.
"Our studies over the past 30 years show the rate of retreat by sea ice is growing very rapidly," says Igor Mokhov, director of the official Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Moscow. "If these tendencies continue, the navigable period by the late 21st century might grow to several months" from the current six-to-eight week window the Northeast Passage offers each summer, he says.

'Huge economic opportunity for Russia'


At least one climate-change skeptic, writing in Britain's Daily Telegraph, has dismissed the Beluga expedition as a "warmist publicity stunt," staged to take advantage of a statistical blip in Arctic ice formation. Other critics say that the German ships didn't really do anything new: Large sections of the northern route had been routinely traversed by Soviet shipping in the past to service remote Arctic settlements, before falling into disuse after the collapse of the USSR. Moreover, the Beluga ships had to be accompanied by a nuclear-powered Russian icebreaker for part of their journey, though they apparently did not require any assistance.
Most Russian Arctic experts say that climate change appears undeniable, but some caution that its impact remains unpredictable.
"This phenomenon is complicated, and we can't guarantee that the northern passage will become ice-free," says Viktor Dmitriyev, an expert with the official Institute of the Arctic and Antarctic Regions in St. Petersburg. "But it looks very possible. And if it happens it will be a huge economic opportunity for Russia. It can mean a whole new impulse for northern development."
A study by the US Geological Survey several years ago estimated that as much as 25 percent of the world's remaining untapped oil deposits and 30 percent of its gas lie under the fast-receding Arctic icecap. Other resources, such as fisheries, could open up as well.
That prospect has triggered a flurry of activity at Russia's Ministry of Transport, which regulates the country's sea lanes. The ministry's head of sea and river transport, Alexander Davydenko, says a new department to administer the northern sea route is being created to build infrastructure and oversee tariffs. He says the ministry is also building at least one massive new nuclear icebreaker to supplement its current fleet of six, and is establishing a new Arctic air-sea rescue unit.
"Scientists tell us that we face warming, and that the boundaries of the Arctic ice are receding," says Mr. Davydenko. "Therefore we are taking a variety of measures ... to safeguard the interests of the Russian Federation in the Arctic region."

Greenpeace: No reason to rejoice over Arctic melting


Shipping experts say that, at least for the moment, bureaucratic obstacles remain more daunting than the threat of pack ice. The Beluga expedition was held up for nearly a month in Vladivostok while it obtained necessary permits and endured close scrutiny by the Federal Security Service. The need to be accompanied by an icebreaker is another factor that will increase costs and limit the route's attractiveness in the near term.
"There are a lot of issues, including political ones, that remain to be worked out," says Mr. Dmitriyev.
But if the ice disappears as predicted, the Russians say their route is the one shipping companies will likely choose. While the better-known Northwest Passage, which runs across the top of Canada, is more southerly, Russian experts say it is plagued by geographical and geopolitical problems that may prove insoluble. It runs through a maze of Arctic islands with narrow and shallow channels, they say. Moreover, Canadian sovereignty in the area is challenged by the US, which has lately begun waking up to Arctic possibilities. The Northeast Passage is Russian territory and clear water from Vladivostok to Norway.
"Look at a map, and you'll see the Canadian route is difficult to navigate because of all the islands and fiords, while the Russian passage is wide open," says Alexei Bezborodov, a shipping expert with Infranews, a Russian transport journal.
Amid economic optimism, Russian environmentalists are aghast.
"There is no possibility, in Russia or any other country, to develop this route in an ecologically safe mode," says Vladimir Chuprov, head of Greenpeace-Russia's energy program. "If this passage is opening up, it creates not only huge risks but possible disasters. That's no reason to rejoice, but to tear our hair [out] in despair."

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Globa....html/(page)/2

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The North Eastern Passage:

• The North Eastern Passage have been used for commercial effects since the Revolution in 1917. I has however been stone cold until soon....
• It became open for international trade since 1991.
• Since 1998, the status of the route have be maintained as a independent Euro-Asian transport corridor.
• The route goes via Russian Territorial waters, and is maintained open year around by icebreakers. The route is de facto and exclusivly used by Russian marine fleets.
• The Northern Route becomes a key route for export of Russians fosil fuels from the northern territories to the east and west.
• Murmansk, Russia is now constructing a new Container harbour which is bigger then any Norwegian harbour.
• A trip for the Netherlands to Japan is cut by 40% time. From Norway to Americas west coast by 30% time.
• Icebreakers become stronger, while the ice becomes thinner.
• Asian powers like Japan, China, South Kora, etc. is in need of trade with the old guard of the Atlantic.
• The edges of the northern Ice-cap is estimated to harbour 1/4 of the worlds untapped oil. Also a massive 1/3 worlds untapped natural gass.
• The third largest fishing site in the world lie between Lofoten in Norway and the Barents Sea bordern in Russia. With a growing need for food in the world, a rich and renewable protin source is attracktive. Not to mention the acceleration of fish in hotter climates.
• The norwegian state have decleared the changes their most importent strategical areas for investment.

Suez Canal:

• Aden is threatned by Pirates which seem to have no end.
• Growing Islamist powers of al-Shabab of Somalia and Yemen with affiliation with terrorismt organisation like Al Qaeda. Growing threat to the commerical industrial and oil choke point?

Yemen: Behind Al-Qaeda Scenarios, a Geopolitical Oil Chokepoint to Eurasia

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Shabaab's longtime links to al Qaeda
Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Mukhtar Robow admitted the group is closely aligned to al Qaeda, and seeks to merge with the terror group. "We are negotiating how we can unite into one," Robow said, according to The Los Angeles Times. "We will take our orders from Sheik Osama bin Laden because we are his students. Al Qaeda is the mother of the holy war in Somalia."
But the senior leaders of Shabaab have had long links to al Qaeda, and Shabaab and its predecessor have been al Qaeda affiliates in all but name. Hassan Dahir Aweys, Aden Hashi Ayro, and Hassan Turki have trained in al Qaeda camps during the 1990s. Robow admitted this in his interview with The Los Angeles Times. "Most of our leaders were trained in Al Qaeda camps. We get our tactics and guidelines from them," Robow said. "Many have spent time with Osama bin Laden."
Turki, Sheikh Yusuf Indha'adde, and Sheikh Mukhtar Robow have appeared on al Qaeda propaganda tapes training and fighting with foreign fighters. Both Turki and Indha'adde admitted to foreign al Qaeda involvement in Somalia in the summer of 2006.
Al Qaeda has helped produced propaganda for the Islamic Courts and Shabaab and has even praised the group in its own propaganda tapes. Osama bin Laden endorsed the Islamic Courts during a speech in 2006. "We will continue, God willing, to fight you and your allies everywhere, in Iraq and Afghanistan and in Somalia and Sudan until we waste all your money and kill your men and you will return to your country in defeat as we defeated you before in Somalia," bin Laden said.
In November 2001, Aweys, the former leader of the Islamic Courts, was identified by the US Department of State as a Specially Designated Global Terrorists. Aweys participated in the infamous "Black Hawk Down" incident in Mogadishu in 1993.
Ayro, was the leader of Shabaab before he was killed in a US airstrike on May 1, 2008. Turki continues to serve as a military commander and senior trainer for the terror group. Robow is the spokesman for Shabaab as well as a military commander. Indha'adde served as the defense minister for the Islamic Courts prior to its fall in 2007.
Another direct connection is Shabaab and the Islamic Courts sheltering of three senior al Qaeda operatives behind the 1998 attack on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, and Abu Taha al Sudani have sought shelter with both Shabaab and the Islamic Courts.
Fazul served as the intelligence chief for the Islamic Courts' and is believed to hold the same portfolio for Shabaab. Sudani is al Qaeda's leader in northern and eastern Africa. The US has targeted Fazul, Sudani, and Nabhan in multiple strikes in late 2007 and 2008.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...nked_shaba.php

Russian claim of the pole:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Russia has been keen to stake its claim to parts of the Arctic. Here they are planting a flag with a mini submarine.

Northern Sea Route (blue) and alternative route through Suez Canal (red):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Artic ports:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Ice shrinking

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Now, the route is only easily navigable about four months of the year, but it will become more and more viable as the climate warms.

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_sea...eltseasona.mov

I was not going to debate this,

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I allow debates on the Northwest passage too. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage

The northern artic ice cap is melting, weather that be from natural or human activitys is irrelevant. I belive the only thing whch is conclusive is the massive profit it may have on north atlantic and east asian countrys. Russian companys is well on it's way in infrastructure, jet the west have jet to react. I say we prompt up global warming so we can get a high way to the other side. Who is with me?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Sea_Route

Talking points+++

1. When things get abit hotter, could Tromsø, Svalbard and Narvik become the north-eastern "Singapore"!!!
2. Will this become a steriode injection for the Russia foreign politics in the future?
3. Do you think the Suez route will become more difficult to use in the future with pirates and anti-western islamist forces?
4. Will this economically challenge Panama and Suez Canal when it comes to commerncial cargo ships and oil tankers with specialist or large loads of units like coal, iron ore, heavy industrial equipment and oil? Currently, Panama and Suez have a limit to the size of these ports.
5. Some international scientists belive the northern ice cap be gone during the summer in 20 - 30 years. What powers will take contol of the oil, gass, fishing, military and geographic control of the north pole area?
6. The combination of vast quantities of energy resources are believed to be located in the Arctic, and the cold and stormy weather conditions possibly complicate clean-up efforts - Are we looking at an enviormental disaster at the end of the tunnel? Not to mention the regoion's (extremly slow) natural ability to absorb such damage.

~Wille

[Gromovnik]

That's some good news.

[Kjertesvein]

I would say interesting, rather then be happy for a steroids injection "Russia-style". We may actually need NATO again:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Claims of the Artic Ocean:

In 2001, Russia took the first step, and the
Bear in the east claimed half the Arctic Ocean
including the North Pole, following other countries
protesting Russias attempted to build
under its claim by sending a research ship to the
north to collect location data,
and in August last year, arrived at the North Pole without
using icebreakers - the first ship that have ever done it.
Denmark and Russia, using geology as an argument to
claim the North Pole. In particular, Denmark, eager to
prove that a 1600 km long underwater mountain
range - Lomonosov chain - geologically associated with
Greenland. If so claim the Danish authorities that they can
claim the North Pole. There are many indications that
Norway in July this year will require ocean area north of
Svalbard, which is as large as half of Norway's land area,
but the site's requirements will not go all the way to the
North Pole. Russia and Greenland (Denmark) has a
special formation on the sea floor that Norway don't.
The Norwegian Oil Directorate has mapped our sea bed
for over 30 years, and has been commissioned by the
Norwegian Foreign Ministry to prepare the Norwegian
requirements in the north. Directorate also finance other
research in the area. Not everyone believes, however, that
melting of the North Pole gives cause for concern. No
one knows with certainty how much of Artic melting is
due to natural cycles and how much is caused by man-made
global warming. In particular, Russian scientists reject the
theory that we are witnessing a permanent climate change,
and they argue that the theory of global warming are wrong.

The energy-thirsty China has created a research center on
Svalbard, and many times it has sent the icebreaker "The
Snowdragon" to northern waters to conduct climate
research. Usually the "The Snowdragon" sail in Antarctica.

New Technology:

The interest in ships that can withstand collisions with
ice has been so great that the Norwegian Kværner
created a separate subsidiary company that develops
more robust ships. The new tankers have
bow at both ends, and if you encounter
ice, then you can turn the ship. The "back bow"
acts as the icebreaker.

If you look at a globe from above, then it's
easy to understands why new boundaries can
be important going forward.
Some countries, which have previously thought
they were half the world from each other, is really
close neighbors. When Tsarist Russia began to
move towards Central Asia in the 1800s was the
start of a power struggle with Britain on this
region, which the author Rudyard Kipling
called "The Great Game".
- The new race in the north is a major new
Game of the Arctic, says energy analyst
Christopher Weafer based in Moscow.
A proof of the kind of opportunities in the
north, the Russian Stockman, the world's largest
offshore gas fields. The Russians want to develop
field in the years ahead - which can cost
15-20 billion dollars - and the expected start-up
- In the coming years will find more gass fields
as Stockman, thinks Weafer.
Melting of the North Pole can do it
easier to pick up oil and gas in the north, but
it can also provide new challenges. Some
researchers have pointed out that a warmer climate will
cause more floating icebergs, not less, which will
preclude any recovery.
Several research reports have pointed out that
global warming will cause more fish spicies
to draw north.
- Global warming will in all probability
lead to increased in fishing in the Arctic, particularly
in the Barents Sea and the Bering Sea where such
commercial activity has been minimal
earlier, said in a report which was carried out
for the U.S. Navy in 2002.

The framework conditions for Norwegian High North-
policy has in the past 10-15 years undergone
large and fairly radical changes. New
players have come to, and new forces have
begun to assert themselves. While the Norwegian,
Russian and American High North policy
previously was a product of security policy
deliberations - it is today, first and
primarily on access to natural resources. It is
in this regard due to the
following question: Should we prepare
that military power assets may be
application in an increasingly acute struggle in
the Barents Sea precious and contentious
resources? Or can we assume outstanding
issues related to the Distinguishing,
management and allocation of resources will be
resolve through dialogue and negotiation?

2001~Norwegian~more--> http://www.folkogforsvar.no/Materiel...orsvar2_06.pdf

Let me also mention that since the Polar sea is 4 times the size of the Mediterranean Sea and with the max depth of 5000 meters may give was data for completly new biological life for farmasytical buisness'. By the end of this century, the white cap Earth have had for millions of years may be gone, and we will end up with a new blue cap.

~W

[Gromovnik]

I would say interesting, rather then be happy for a steroids injection "Russia-style". We may actually need NATO again:

What do I care, I'm happy for the Russians.

[Ex Tenebris Lux]

im so glad that destroying the environment is opening a new shipping lane.

[HansDuet]

Environment is environment.

We can hardly "destroy" it as we are part of it.

[Exarch]

awesome
but russia's goingto have a helluva lot of power over internationalsea trade

[Ex Tenebris Lux]

Environment is environment.

We can hardly "destroy" it as we are part of it.

okay, I'm sorry, I should have said "artificially and unnecesarily hastening widescale environmental change instead of the gradual change that is natural and easier to adapt to."

head in the sand much?

[HansDuet]

Not the slightest.

I just don't see how the DESTRUCTION of the ENVIRONMENT is right around the corner and something we can accomplish in a way that it would happen to benefit countries around Northern Sea.

[Exarch]

seems russia;'s on the way up again eh

[Kjertesvein]

Obama is resceduling artic oil drilling!!?!?!? Well, the west (this time US) have taken ANOTHER step backwards!!!!!!! :|

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

UPDATE 1-U.S. to suspend Arctic drilling-Alaska senator

May 27 (Reuters) - The Obama administration plans to announce on Thursday a suspension of
offshore oil drilling in the Arctic until 2011 as a result of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, an Alaska
senator said.
Democratic Senator Mark Begich said he had been told by the Interior Department that the Obama
administration will announce that consideration of any applications for exploratory drilling in the
Arctic is suspended until 2011.

The suspension is part of measures President Barack Obama plans to order in response to the runaway oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

He is also expected to announce tougher safety requirements for offshore oil drilling and
strengthened inspections of oil rigs.

The Arctic decision will suspend plans by Shell Oil (RDSa.L) to drill exploratory wells off Alaska
this summer.

Shell's plans to drill in the Arctic have faced increasing controversy in recent weeks as the
government tries to contain the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

"I am frustrated that this decision by the Obama administration to halt offshore development for
a year will cause more delays and higher costs for domestic oil and gas production to meet the
nation's energy needs," Begich said in a statement. (Reporting by Steve Holland; Editing by Bill
Trott)

~http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2724001920100527 s

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Obama suspends Arctic oil drilling plans

Permits for exploratory wells delayed until next year as US government evaluates technology and
spill risks


The Obama administration is suspending proposed exploratory drilling in the Arctic Ocean.

The US interior secretary, Ken Salazar, will say in a report to the White House today that he will
not consider applications for permits to drill in the Arctic until 2011. Shell Oil was poised to begin
exploratory drilling this summer on leases as far as 140 miles offshore.

An administration official familiar with the plan said Salazar wanted to allow further study of
proposed drilling technology and oil spill response capabilities in Arctic waters. The official spoke
on condition of anonymity because the plan is not yet public. Salazar has said he wants to take a
cautious approach in the Arctic.

Barack Obama ordered Salazar to conduct a review of the nation's offshore oil drilling safety after
the Gulf of Mexico oil spill last month.

In March Obama and Salazar cancelled a planned 2011 lease sale in Alaska's Bristol Bay, where oil
development was proposed by the Bush administration. They cancelled four scheduled lease sales
in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas and said no additional leases would be offered there until more
scientific data was collected.

An administration official said Salazar believed fisheries, tourism and environmental values in
Bristol Bay made the area inappropriate for oil and gas drilling.

Shell, which has leases in both the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, had sought to begin drilling five
exploratory wells in those areas this summer. Salazar's announcement means those wells will not
be considered until 2011.

Salazar is directing the US Geological Survey to conduct an independent evaluation of oil spill risks
and spill response capabilities in the state.

Shell Oil, the US arm of Royal Dutch Shell, has the backing of Alaska's political leaders. With few
exceptions they support offshore drilling.

About 90% of Alaska's general fund revenue comes from the petroleum industry. State leaders
look to offshore oil to provide jobs and keep the trans-Alaska pipeline from running dry.

~http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...drilling-plans s

This article is abit old, but it sums up some claims:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

WASHINGTON — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday said the Obama
administration is "committed" to ratifying the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,
touting the decades-old treaty as the best way for Arctic powers to resolve competing territorial
claims over the Far North's resource-rich seabed.

With global warming opening the Northwest Passage to increased navigation — and the potential
for competition among Canada, the United States, Russia and other nations in tapping the Arctic's
vast oil and gas reserves — Clinton said she's committed to a "high level of engagement" in
negotiating future disputes over the region.

"It is crucial we work together," Clinton said at the opening of an international summit on the
future of the Arctic and Antarctica.

"That starts with the Law of the Sea Convention, which President (Barack) Obama and I are
committed to ratifying, to give the United States and our partners the clarity we need to work
together smoothly and effectively in the Arctic region."

The 27-year-old Law of the Sea treaty sets out rules for adjudicating disputes over extended
territorial-water claims in the Arctic, and could ultimately settle emerging conflicts as nations rush
to map the outer limits of their nations' respective continental shelves.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the Arctic may contain as much as 25 per cent of the world's
untapped oil reserves.

Russia has already laid claim to an underwater mountain range known as the Lomonosov Ridge,
which extends to the North Pole, as part of its continental shelf. Canada and Denmark are seeking
to prove the ridge is part of their continental shelves.

Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon, who held an unannounced bilateral meeting with
Clinton on the sidelines of Monday's summit, said Canada and the U.S. are planning to launch a
"joint survey" of the continental shelf in the western Arctic Ocean this fall.

"It is important to determine where Canada can exercise its sovereign rights. That is why we are
delineating the outer limits of Canada's extended continental shelf," Cannon said.

"The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea explicitly recognizes Canada's sovereign
rights over its continental shelf, and sets out a process for coastal states, like Canada, to secure
international recognition for the precise limits of its continental shelf. And that is precisely what
we're doing."

The United States has signed, but never ratified, the Law of the Seas treaty, because of long-
standing congressional opposition that dates to the Reagan administration.

While former U.S. president George W. Bush supported the treaty, he was unsuccessful in swaying
a small number of Republicans who successfully blocked ratification. Canada is hopeful the Obama
administration will have more luck "applying pressure" with the U.S. Senate to take action, because
of its increased Democratic majority.

"This is good news because, for Canada, it indicates that all coastal partners in the Arctic will abide
by the same conventions, the same way of doing things," he said.

Cannon said he and Clinton have "agreed to disagree" over two long-standing Arctic disputes
between Ottawa and Washington: Canada's claim to sovereignty over the Northwest Passage and a
border dispute in the Beaufort Sea.

Days before president Bush left office, his administration asserted U.S. military "sea power" in a
rebuttal of Canada's claims. The U.S. maintains the Northwest Passage is "a strait used for
international navigation."

The Obama administration, however, is not eager to pick a fight over the matter, Cannon said.

"The status of the file, basically, is to continue to agree to disagree. That is not something that
Secretary Clinton, as well as myself, want to address," Cannon said. "We want to look at areas of
co-operation and mutual partnership, whether it be in terms of search-and-rescue operations (in
the Northwest Passage), or whether it be in terms of pollution prevention."

At a summit next month of Arctic Council nations — the U.S., Canada, Russia, Denmark and
Norway — Clinton said she will propose several new initiatives to fight "short-lived carbon
forcers" of Arctic warming. They include methane, tropospheric ozone, and so-called "black
carbon" pollution caused by incomplete burning of fuels such as diesel.

"The warming of the Arctic has profound implications for global commerce, with the opening of
new shipping routes," Clinton said.

"It raises the possibility of new energy exploration, which will, of course, have additional impacts
on our environment."

~http://www.montrealgazette.com/trave...347/story.html s

Thanks, now Statoil is loosing money, ergo I am loosing my money!

[Fingon NL]

Very interesting to see the world from above, it gives you a complete new perspective.