Iran's nuclear program

[Yoni]

Do you think Iran will finish its nuclear program or they will stop it after diplomatic pressure or air attack?

[Poach]

Diplomatic pressure could be successful if it was in the form of crippling embargoes, but Iran has friends who would trade with her and so laying economic siege isn't really an option. If the US wants them to stop trying for nuclear energy/weaponry, they'll probably need to force them, or atleast persuade them.

[Boer]

They will "finish it", but I don't think it is a bomb. They really want to get to Japan levels of nuclear program. They want the ability to make a bomb with out actually making one, enough of a nuclear program to say "we stood up to the US and Israel with out provoking Israel to nuke them. They will, eventually, have a civilian nuclear program with the ability to make a bomb if the want.

[Poach]

The problem with nuclear tech, Boer, is that once you can get a civilian reactor working it's pretty easy to then get a bomb working. That's why the US is worried: they may be telling the truth about only wanting civil, but Nuclear Fission (massively unlike Fusion btw) isn't that different in weaponised or civilian form.

[B5C]

Harsh economic sanctions will not happen due to Russia and PRC. The only chance of Iran not developing a weapon is probably an Israeli attack. Heck it worked of Israel's benefit in Iraq and Syria.

[zznɟ ǝɥʇ]

I don't understand why people think harsh economic sanctions are a good idea. It'll only cripple the people necessary to lead Iran post-Islamic Rep.

[Armenum]

They will make a move to please the West than turn around and enrich. This cycle will continue.

[roy34543]

I don't understand why people think harsh economic sanctions are a good idea. It'll only cripple the people necessary to lead Iran post-Islamic Rep.

Sensibly they would boycott the oil and nothing else . that would cripple the Iranian government while fostering other industries that currently the Iranian government taxes very little - because they make all their money from oil.
But people arent sensible and they want their oil and its too damn fungible a commodity.

[Carach]

only thing that will stop iran developing their planned nuclear capabilities is attack.

diplomacy has already gone on too long imo, and nobody seems to have the stomach to deal with them in harsher terms.

In the event of attacking Iran there is also the threat that she strike back at US targets across the ME, regardless of whether the US is actually involved or not.

http://defensetech.org/2010/05/11/be...dmin-official/

there's a lot of US hardware in range of Iran's missiles, but one could counter and say that this is precisely why Iran are developing such missile capabilities (and perhaps, a nuclear one) - The amount of US military presence in the region is obviously a threat to their national security.

[persianfan247]

Whether Iran is building a bomb or not out of the three scenarios above I think the second scenario is furtherest away from happening, simply because I am sure the Iranian government or at least parts of it will realise when they have pushed the U.S to far.

[Amagi]

"end their nuclear program" ?! yoni your poll is close to worthless, the options you give are insufficient and the terms you use are not clear enuff.

In particular I refer to te term "nuclear program", which half the reader will automatically associate with "da bomb".
As I saw you defending apartheid israel in other threads, I assume you are not too unhappy if the reader fell victim of such a confusion. But thats propably just a nasty guess of mine.

However,
do you mean the CIVIL NUCLEAR PROGRAM IRAN IS PERFECTLY ENTITLED TO or the alleged nuke bomb program, the one which the hawkish zionist media cries about 24/7 as she did before the Iraq invasion about Saddams nuke and WMDs, and as back then has not the least resemblance of a proof for?
Even the secret agencies and high ranks in the military try to sabotage the newest WMD lie of zionist traitors in the state department, trying to make the US yet another time the tool for Israeli aggresion.

The times where you could find a stupid Colin Powell to lie for you are OVER.

I voted number 3, as it´s Iran perfectly legit right to enrich nuclear material for civil purposes, as it proovenly does. aswell as Iran made it glass clear that it wont give up the nuclear ambitions to secure her right to clean and relatively "cheap" energy.


Israel should better go with a false flag attack, for Iran is not so stupid as to deliver the chosenites a reason- as their very smart move to enrich the materials in turkey prooves, that was a nice spit in the warmongerer´s soup if I may add and very clever move.

I hope you do better this time than on 911, dont let that nanothermite lay around, dont let your Mossad agents boast in Israeli TV with "documenting events" while "high fiving" during the death of 3000 americans, and dont blow up skyscrapers without a plane hitting them.

Amateurs.

[Poach]

do you mean the CIVIL NUCLEAR PROGRAM IRAN IS PERFECTLY ENTITLED TO or the alleged nuke bomb program,

I'm guessing he means "the nuclear program that the IAEA told the UN Security Council had systematically breached the terms of the NPT and which is, contrary to requirement, shrouded in secrecy".

Iran, an NPT signatory, as required to meet certain criteria to be "perfectly entitled" to a Nuclear Program, it is not a universally granted right nor is it legal under international law to simply begin researching one. I suggest you learn what the NPT entails.

I too agree that Iran should be allowed civil nuclear power, it is a large country and it would certainly benefit from the addition of nuclear power. Unfortunately, the Iranian Government is being difficult about it, breaching regulations and then resorting to secrecy when they were found out.

Even if they only want a civil program, they've demonstrated they lack the international responsibility to be trusted with one, as per the findings of the IAEA (who, because I know you'll try and say it if I don't) are impartial and have been defending Iran from the more irate international figures by stressing that, while they cannot rule it out due to the issues with the secrecy and breaching of regulation, they have yet to find any concrete evidence of a nuclear weapons program.

Iran recently made an attempt at a deal to ratify the Additional Protocol and significantly opening up it's program to public inspection, even offering to operate one plant as an international effort by allowing foreign observers into their teams. There were a few other bits and bobs in the deal but iirc these were the main parts.

Personally, I think the UNSC should've accepted the offer and then re-evaluate their position after a few months, but they're adamant now that Iran halt all enrichment until the outstanding issues can be dealt with, which Iran continues to refuse to do.

[PointOfViewGun]

When you say nuclear program you need to be more specific. Is it a civil nuclear program or a military one?

[Sphere]

They will "finish it", but I don't think it is a bomb. They really want to get to Japan levels of nuclear program. They want the ability to make a bomb with out actually making one,

This.

They will get their civilian nuclear power program up and running while also creating the needed uranium refining infrastructure so that they could produce weapons grade uranium. Also, once they have their reactors going, a natural byproduct will be plutonium (which is more desirable because it has a lower critical mass, and thus more suitable for smaller missiles).

The Iranians may or may not create a clandestine program to figure out the precise engineering required for a weapon (which in many ways is more difficult than getting uranium/plutonium). This however would be a smoking-gun that they are trying to produce a weapon, unlike the uranium enrichment program which is dual use.