What are the chances of another major earthquake in Haiti?

[fritsje5]

Hello Geologist community of TWC.

There's a big school assignment for me to do, an essay to be more precise, and it's goal is to predict the chances of another big earhquake hitting Haiti in the coming century.

I would be very much obliged if the experts here would enlighten me about the following question:
What are the chances of another major earthquake in Haiti, coming in the following century?

Please, if you are an expert, or just a well-researched hobbyist, make an educated guess of the chances to the above, using both the history of Haiti and an assessment of the geological situation of Haiti.

Please also state your reasoning, and link to information sources where possible.

Thanks in advance,
Fritsje5

[Gordon Freynman]

Predicting earthquakes is a tricky business, but given that Haiti basically sits on top of a very active plate boundary, you can be pretty certain that there will be another one with in a hundred years. Hell there could be another one this week even.

[fritsje5]

That will certainly be used in my essay, thanks!

Maybe it would spice things up a bit to try and predict the chances in the following decade?

[Sphere]

Maybe it would spice things up a bit to try and predict the chances in the following decade?

Plate boundaries don't work like that. If you look on a time scale of millions of years, you can get a good pattern of movements, however, looking at a scale of decades is useless for 99% of earthquake regions (there are some heavily studied strike slip boundaries in California that move at fairly regular intervals).

The earthquake in Haiti might be part of series of movements closely spaced together, or it might be the last movement for 30,000 years, it is extremely difficult to know.

[chamaeleo]

Earthquakes are the result of accumulated strain in the Earth's lithosphere, usually along tectonic plate boundaries. The longer a seismically active region goes without realizing activity, the greater the accumulated strain: more energy is stored within the fault, and the more likelyhood that this stress is released in a seismic event. This is why certain regions are considered "overdue" for Big Ones...Los Angeles Basin comes to mind. The average recurrence interval at several San Andrea Fault trenching sites is 114 yrs btwn events, yet several have not seen activity in over 200 years.

A simplified analogy: think of a fault zone as a rubber band that is being gradually pulled apart at a constant rate. The longer the duration in which it is pulled apart and does not snap, the more energy is stored in the rubber band, and the more your finger hurts when it does eventually snap.

Short answer: Haiti is unlikely to experience anything major in the immediate future, because the energy locked within the fault zone was very recently dispersed...which may also have increased energy elsewhere...this is where forecasting gets REALLY complex!

[fritsje5]

thanks guys, rep to all

[Nimthill]

You can't really make accurate predictions on short term, because that's similar asking how likely is it that you'll get a cold in the next 4 hours? That kind of question makes a lot more sense if you increase the time period: What are the chances of getting a cold per year? (Answer: roughly 1 cold per 6 months)

Similarly, I think you should include that making short term predictions on this is not really feasible, but the odds of this happening again in 100 years... that's a different story.

[Boer]

I think you need to define what a "big earthquake" is. While I doubt that Haiti will experience another 7 magnitude earthquake soon, for reasons others have mentioned, it will experience earthquakes. According to http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak...19.-68.-66.php Puerto Rico, not too far from Haiti, had a 5.8 just last week.

Since this is for a paper, and you probably wouldn't mind padding it out a bit, you could say something about how, until substantial houses can be built with recovery money Haiti, is vulnerable to even moderate quakes, with a good-sized part of the population still living in camps and such. Even fairly minor but localized damage to the ports/airports would significantly hamper the huge amount or reconstruction needed.
On the other hand, foreign aid should insure that, in the long term, Haiti is better prepared to handle a major earthquake. Chile experienced a significantly larger earthquake (8.8) plus a Tsunami but better seemed to have weathered it better, thanks in part to stricter building codes and better construction methods.

[Ascarona]

On the other hand, foreign aid should insure that, in the long term, Haiti is better prepared to handle a major earthquake. Chile experienced a significantly larger earthquake (8.8) plus a Tsunami but better seemed to have weathered it better, thanks in part to stricter building codes and better construction methods.

Well yeah but Chile is a whole different story, Chile was way better prepared because they have to endure earthquakes each year. They're in a special Pacific ring where there is a lot of seismic activity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ring_of_Fire

It was all over the news in my country, but they also said that they can handle this one because they are experienced.