What chance does Azerbaijan have in retaking Nagorno-Karabakh by force?

[6644kp]

As we have seen from the war in 2008 the Georgians had little difficulty reaching the South Ossetian captial. But once Russian forces entered the war the game completely changed.

So if Azeri forces attacked the break away republic they would probably not have many difficulties in capturing the entire country but what is almost sure is that the Armenians will enter the war.

How would Azeri forces fare against a combined Armenian and Karabakhi defence of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic?



I say this the end result

[Jaketh]

a third world brawl, no idea, but Russia or America would enter the conflict for sure

[General David]

First of all, one cannot say that Azerbaijan would "retake" Nagorno-Karabakh because it was never fully part of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the first place, it was what they call an autonomous oblast.

If a war does eventually happen (although a peaceful resolution is much more likely) I would place my bets on the Armenians and it's not only because I am Armenian myself. During the 1988-1994 war Azerbaijanis had the numeric advantage and had much better and more numerous tanks and weapons than the Armenians. However, one of the reasons that they won is that they benefited from better defensive positions as their territory is mountainous compared to Azerbaijan...

[Norge]

As we have seen from the war in 2008 the Georgians had little difficulty reaching the South Ossetian captial.

Actually they did. The South Ossetian militia put up such a resistance that Georgian forces couldn't break trough to the Roki Tunnel.

[white-wolf]

If no outside power intervenes, Azeris can take easily Karabagh (and other parts of their country under Armenian occupation, up to %20 of their country), with their current military.

And I think, if the Azerbaijan keeps the war just inside of their country, there will be no reason for intervening from outside powers.

My two cents.

[Tiberios]

Depends on whether Russia or the US decides to intervene. Anyway, I'm not even sure Azerbaijan can win even if no major powers intervene. The terrain heavily favours the defenders.

[removeduser_052420]

If there is no outside interference, then i'm pretty sure that Armenia will get it's ass kicked.


Well that is, if the Azeri military leadership isn't as blatantly retarded like in the last war.

[Armenum]

If there is no outside interference, then i'm pretty sure that Armenia will get it's ass kicked.


Well that is, if the Azeri military leadership isn't as blatantly retarded like in the last war.

Oh right, just as the Azeris kicked Armenia's ass in the last war

Armenian forces have been quite busy the last 16 years fortifying the borders. The buffer zones are filled with thousands of mines, the mountains make a great natural barrier for the many Armenian artillery and advanced anti-aircraft system. And of course very great defences for the troops. And these fighters know the rugged terrain better than anyone else. Azeri army will be walking into an abyss before any Azeri soldier can step foot in karabakh, a good portion of their army will be decimated already.

[Treize]

Oh right, just as the Azeris kicked Armenia's ass in the last war

Armenian forces have been quite busy the last 16 years fortifying the borders. The buffer zones are filled with thousands of mines, the mountains make a great natural barrier for the many Armenian artillery and advanced anti-aircraft system. And of course very great defences for the troops. And these fighters know the rugged terrain better than anyone else. Azeri army will be walking into an abyss before any Azeri soldier can step foot in karabakh, a good portion of their army will be decimated already.

But they have an airforce...

[Exarch]

dunno, tell me again why the West or East should care about this little backwater, again?

[Armenum]

dunno, tell me again why the West or East should care about this little backwater, again?

Ok let's see. Well one reason is the Nabucco pipelines supported by EU/US that will bring non-Russian gas to Europe for a change. However this pipeline goes through the Caucuses countries and such a war would spell disaster for the future of this project. They want to bring the pipeline from Azerbaijan through Armenia.

Also there is the oil supply.

Also there is the many western companies that are investing in the region.

Stability in the Caucuses region will do great benefit not only to the region itself put to future economic projects that will help the world.

[6644kp]

Azeri forces outnumber their enemies though and with a better economic backbone they can fight for longer durations. Also they have an ideological advantage because after its their own land and no one recognized the sepratists probably because of their unpronounceble name .

Where is the Atabeg of Azerbaijan?

[Armenum]

Azeri forces outnumber their enemies though and with a better economic backbone they can fight for longer durations. Also they have an ideological advantage because after its their own land and no one recognized the sepratists probably because of their unpronounceble name .

Where is the Atabeg of Azerbaijan?

Ideological advantage? The Armenian fighters will defend their own lands at any cost. Azeris are just brainwashed to think that karabakh is significant to them.

Wars are not all about numbers. You should know that. How about the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan? Exactly.

[Exarch]

Ok let's see. Well one reason is the Nabucco pipelines supported by EU/US that will bring non-Russian gas to Europe for a change. However this pipeline goes through the Caucuses countries and such a war would spell disaster for the future of this project. They want to bring the pipeline from Azerbaijan through Armenia.

Also there is the oil supply.

Also there is the many western companies that are investing in the region.

Stability in the Caucuses region will do great benefit not only to the region itself put to future economic projects that will help the world.

the nabucco pipeline is a dead dream;
the russians have won that round, especially with their southstream line

[Armenum]

the nabucco pipeline is a dead dream;
the russians have won that round, especially with their southstream line

The fact that southstream is going forward gives more reason for Nabucco. The reason naucco is stalled is because of the Karabakh issue and the Armenia/Turkey border. there has to be peace in the region in order to be able to have that line go through.

[Exarch]

The fact that southstream is going forward gives more reason for Nabucco. The reason naucco is stalled is because of the Karabakh issue and the Armenia/Turkey border. there has to be peace in the region in order to be able to have that line go through.

and in the meantime the southstream will become reality and when that happens, the nabucco deal may as well be forgotten; what's the point of going into the expense of making another pipeline when one already exists? the sucess of southstream will be a foregone conclusion.
in that case, the west would be better off buying gas off the southstream and nordstream lines

[Stavroforos]

dunno, tell me again why the West or East should care about this little backwater, again?

No idea. I say we just let them do whatever the hell they want so long as it doesn't spread to the relevant world.

[roy34543]

Someone else will step in before it even begins. The armenians are stupid enough to let a blitzkrieg style event occur, they just have to wait it out.
Now if noone does step in... now then its a lot harder to gauge what would happen.But I dont fancy armenias chances from a purely tactical point of view

[Atatürk]

Victory to Azerbaijan!

[John I Tzimisces]

The only certain result is that a lot of people who didn't have to die , will.