This Just in

[JP226]

coming across the wires now... Iran... oil... use against... UN sanctions

hehehe, yea just saw on drudge that Iran is going to cut off oil if sanctions take place. Not many details as of yet, but more to follow

[Tom Paine]

Hah, nice threat/bargaining chip they have. maybve now the EU-3 will start offering real incentives for Iran to prove it isn't making nukes...

[nahirean]

Hah, nice threat/bargaining chip they have. maybve now the EU-3 will start offering real incentives for Iran to prove it isn't making nukes...

Or it could blow up in their face and cause another invasio... er, sorry "Liberation."

[Tom Paine]

That is, of course, the flipside. it is all a matter of careful negotiation and suggestion.

[Mr.Flint]

so membership in the WTO is not a "real" incenitive?

[Tom Paine]

Why would it be? How about letting them get on with the power program, for a start? Or guaranteeing their safety from the US, that'd be one hell of an incentive (which isn't just stopping producing nukes, given that they're on this "Axis of Evil" which conveniently ignores regimes the US is friendly with....)

[Mr.Flint]

Why would it be? How about letting them get on with the power program, for a start? Or guaranteeing their safety from the US, that'd be one hell of an incentive (which isn't just stopping producing nukes, given that they're on this "Axis of Evil" which conveniently ignores regimes the US is friendly with....)

i suggest you to read then what is the WTO http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WTO
if its not an incenitive why Iran, and Russia too strive to join it? :laughing:
And i really dont understand why the hell EU-3 should guarantee safety from the US to an undemocratic, fundamentalist, terrorist supporting, country? is it some sort of "Just not to be on the US side" thing?

[Tom Paine]

No, its because the US does the same for Saudi Arabia... which funds al-Q. Woops.

Also, I think that the fact tht Iran has oil to trade means people will already be willing to talk and deal with disputes without reference to the WTO... and it hass of course been an observer, anyway. Finally, read the Wiki article: the decisions favour Europe and the US above anywhere else...

[Mr.Flint]

No, its because the US does the same for Saudi Arabia... which funds al-Q. Woops.

Also, I think that the fact tht Iran has oil to trade means people will already be willing to talk and deal with disputes without reference to the WTO... and it hass of course been an observer, anyway. Finally, read the Wiki article: the decisions favour Europe and the US above anywhere else...

Never heard of any EU plans on aggression against Saudi Arabia, did you? so the US isnt much guarantees it safety from EU agression :laughing: moreover the Saudi king doesnt call for the destruction of US.... oh yeah they fund al-Q. but frankly everyone funds al-Q. and others....
Iraq had oil too, and the mess was pretty big... Oil for Food anyone?
Yes WTO does favors Europe and US above all, but part of the incenitive package was not just membership in the WTO but also favorable trade conditions etc.

[Tom Paine]

Never heard of any EU plans on aggression against Saudi Arabia, did you? so the US isnt much guarantees it safety from EU agression :laughing:

Howeve it doesn't attack a nice little terrorist hotspot headed by an oppresive regime, higher on the AofE list than any other nation... woops....

Iraq had oil too, and the mess was pretty big... Oil for Food anyone?

Don't let the UN handle it then?

Yes WTO does favors Europe and US above all, but part of the incenitive package was not just membership in the WTO but also favorable trade conditions etc.

And a) How long would that work, and b) how does that work when all decisions are reached by consensus in the WTO, so giving preferential treatment out really fails.

[Mr.Flint]

Howeve it doesn't attack a nice little terrorist hotspot headed by an oppresive regime, higher on the AofE list than any other nation... woops....

Don't let the UN handle it then?

And a) How long would that work, and b) how does that work when all decisions are reached by consensus in the WTO, so giving preferential treatment out really fails.

Neverthless ginving Iran guarantees against US aggression is silly, and EU would never do that, because US will pretty much ignore it :laughing: and EU wont go to war against US
EU currently handles it in a typical ineffective UN manner, half-measures as usual...
Everyone in the WTO pretty much in consensus to give Iran special conditions for their agreement to EU's conditions
In diplomacy nothing is permanent.

[Tom Paine]

Neverthless ginving Iran guarantees against US aggression is silly, and EU would never do that, because US will pretty much ignore it :laughing: and EU wont go to war against US

Its better than nothing, and given that the US and EU-3 are combined on the negotiation table currently (ie the US willl abide by whatever conditions are agreed upon) then they would have agreed to not attack....

EU currently handles it in a typical ineffective UN manner, half-measures as usual...

EU is currently looking for a deal, backed by the US for once, but being pushed toward a more hawkish attitude by them.

Everyone in the WTO pretty much in consensus to give Iran special conditions for their agreement to EU's conditions
In diplomacy nothing is permanent.

Really? Everyone? I'd be very surprised about that, really, as ou'd think they'd all want preferential treatment as well.

[Tom Paine]

So far the US didn't really help much, and so far no evidence has been found of a nuclear weapons program according to on-site inspectors. But other than that...

[Mr.Flint]

So far the US didn't really help much, and so far no evidence has been found of a nuclear weapons program according to on-site inspectors. But other than that...

Yet the on-site inspectors are complaing and having doubts about Iran's innocence for a long time already....

[Tom Paine]

They are having unsubstanitated doubts. However there is nothing they can really do about them. it is better to doubt and be wrong sometimes, but in this case as thy have found nothing?

[Mr.Flint]

They are having unsubstanitated doubts. However there is nothing they can really do about them. it is better to doubt and be wrong sometimes, but in this case as thy have found nothing?

why are you so sure that those doubts are unsubstantial? There is plenty they could do if Iran was sincere about its program.
In this case being in doubt and wrong would lead to another N.Korea, but with a far worser attitude.
They simply dont have the right to be wrong, thus doubts must be adressed.

[Tom Paine]

why are you so sure that those doubts are unsubstantial? There is plenty they could do if Iran was sincere about its program.
In this case being in doubt and wrong would lead to another N.Korea, but with a far worser attitude.
They simply dont have the right to be wrong, thus doubts must be adressed.

I was talking about the doubts. They have to be allowed to be wrng, unles you want to strip Iran opf sovereignty. And anyway, if they have found no evidence of it beyong some Pakistani contamination, and the US is reduced to saying that the contamination isd Iranian....

[Mr.Flint]

I was talking about the doubts. They have to be allowed to be wrng, unles you want to strip Iran opf sovereignty. And anyway, if they have found no evidence of it beyong some Pakistani contamination, and the US is reduced to saying that the contamination isd Iranian....

In this matter they cannot be allowed be wrong, and seriously no one wants to strip Iran of it sovereignity, and transparent nuclear program doesnt means loss of sovereignity
They didnot find indeed, but then they say that they cant vouch that there in no weapons program.

[Oldgamer]

I think this "sanction" by Iran would hit Europe much more than the United States. Very little of our oil comes from Iran, in the first place. Second, the problem in the United States with gasoline prices has little to do with supply, and much to do with refinery capacity.

A little prediction from me: Within a couple of weeks, the Congress will pass an enabling law that will once again make the construction of refineries profitable to the oil companies. To do this, they will strip away environmental laws that have stopped the creation of new refineries, for the last 30 years, and they will make former military base lands available for these refineries. Let's see if I'm right!

Back on topic, and to repeat, I think the use of oil as a weapon by Iran will significantly hurt Europe, but have little effect on Iran's main enemy ... the USA.

[Erik]

I think this "sanction" by Iran would hit Europe much more than the United States. Very little of our oil comes from Iran, in the first place. Second, the problem in the United States with gasoline prices has little to do with supply, and much to do with refinery capacity.

Your absolutely right here.

A little prediction from me: Within a couple of weeks, the Congress will pass an enabling law that will once again make the construction of refineries profitable to the oil companies. To do this, they will strip away environmental laws that have stopped the creation of new refineries, for the last 30 years, and they will make former military base lands available for these refineries. Let's see if I'm right!

But here I think you are mistaking.
Refineries make good money, and they have been doing so for a long time.
The reason so few people want to invest in new refineries is because global crude oil production is stagnating, and it's predicted to decline in the comming decades.
Today we have a shortage of refineries, but investors predict there wil be a surplus of refineries in the near future.
Nobody wants to invest in a refinery that wil be out of work in 10 years time.

Back on topic, and to repeat, I think the use of oil as a weapon by Iran will significantly hurt Europe, but have little effect on Iran's main enemy ... the USA.

I don't think there wil be a shortage of oil in Europe, like you said: the refineries are the limitting factor right now.
And if oil prices go up in Europe, they wil go up in the US too since both markets are linked.

No, Iran is negotiating with EU-3, not with the US (The Big Devil)

It is a cooperation between the EU3 and US.
EU3 provides the carrots, the US provides the sticks.
At least, this was the theory.