Assassin/spy failure rate or is it Faction leader failure rate?

[Cookus]

Hello. I am new here, and I have been scouring the internet and these forums for a more detailed explanation on reloading after an end turn and the outcomes of assassination/sabotage or spying attempts not changing. I heard there is a mechanism in the game that prevents the outcomes from changing after an end turn save, even if you don't move any characters or make any actions after the end turn and the save following it. I am wondering if the game hard tags/stamps or "seeds" (for lack of my programming terminology) the agent (success/failure chance regardless of the "success chance" listed on any given target, before his actions are taken, or if maybe it is the player/faction leader who has some programming subterfuge skill check stamped with a predetermined success rate before any actions are taken by any assassins or spies. Or perhaps if the faction you are targeting has some modifier on them as a whole or their territory + them as a whole to repel any subterfuge type targeting attempts by other players or a particular faction and it's hard coded on that new turn. Confusing yes, but I will explain:

I am playing Spain around 1149 A.D. and while Portugal is my ally, for now, I will be attacking them later on, so I am spying on them, assassinating them, and generally sabotaging them in preparation for this. Currently my lead assassin has been blowing up buildings where the faction leader stays I believe in Corboda. I also have a spy very close by. I just ended my turn and began it by beating and defeating a French Rebel army (by the way France itself declared war on me for this, and they aren't attacking their "rebels," which are right next to them on the map.)

So I saved the game at this point and now I want to continue with my spying and sabotage in Portugal on this me turn. My assassin looks at his targets and they are all at a 95% success rate in Cordoba. But he fails on this attempt. So, I reload. Fail, Fail, Fail. I also notice on the second reload onward he also gets killed every time really fast after the failed attempt, which is something I've noticed with my spies failing in the past on a turn and reloading. It's almost as if the AI is on to me and wants me to give up the reload. I heard this game was wired this way but saw no confirmation.

So I try other tactics: I move my assassin next reload to a nearby target to assassinate a priest with a 95% chance of success. Of course he fails. So the moving the unit trick around didn't work. Reload many times later and I decide to try something else. My spy is nearby and wants to spy on a completely different unit from the Portugal faction, an army, and he has a 95% success chance to complete this mission. He fails also. Reload, reload, reload and here I am.

So this is why I'm thinking the game is set up to either continue your failure at subterfuge related missions on that turn even after a reload because the modifier is set from the start on that turn for either the agents or your faction in general as a simple win/fail option for any missions in general before you even take them. Or it's like that for the enemy faction to have a repel/fail to repel modifier on that turn for certain things like shady attacks.

I know for example, when I assassinated a captain in a nearby Spanish rebel army in this same zone the assassin succeeded, however the spy who previously has a 95% chance of spying on this same army now had a 75% chance of succeeding, which simple logic tells me that is because the enemy is more alert to repeated subterfuge-like attacks at least on the same turn. That was easy enough to figure out.
Sorry for the length, but I figured someone who programs or is a pro at this game can share their experiences here.

I will of course, give up on this turn at this point, but I wanted to make sure I wasn't crazy first. Like I said the AI seems out to get me and is playing the god mode on the reload. Reloading might be cheating to some, I just would like a more detailed answer if anyone has one. I've never seen a game that has such programming in it to keep the player from evading fate. Hehe

[Wilhelm Ritter]

I have succesfully reloaded and had a previously failed "marriage" to a general work. Never tried it with assaisination but if I had to guess I would say you are very, very unlucky. Not sure though.

[Jianadaren]

It's the same thing with auto-resolve - you can keep doing it over and over but the outcome won't change. I have noticed that doing things during the turn can change this : there's a spy outside Dijon when you start as France and he will always die if you send him to spy on that city as your first action. If you fight a battle first though, and then do the spying, there is a chance of success. My guess would be that after every "event" (where an event is a battle or an agent action) the game randomly selects a number between 1-100. If that number is above the probability of success (i.e. the number is 70 when chance of success is 65) the mission fails. Else it succeeds. This should at least be true for spies. For other agents there is success, failure, and failure with death so the algorithm is a little more complicated. Ditto for auto-resolve battles.

With the auto-resolve battles though, I have noticed that you can manipulate them a bit. If you set-up multiple battles, save, and then auto-resolve them, the order in which you auto-resolve them has a random effect on your success. If you auto-resolve A then B, your results will be different than if you resolve B then A.

As to the precise algorithm I have no idea, but I think the game generally recalculates the "chance" part of the auto-resolves after every "event". And saving is definitely not an event.

[John Doe]

It's the same thing with auto-resolve - you can keep doing it over and over but the outcome won't change. I have noticed that doing things during the turn can change this : there's a spy outside Dijon when you start as France and he will always die if you send him to spy on that city as your first action. If you fight a battle first though, and then do the spying, there is a chance of success. My guess would be that after every "event" (where an event is a battle or an agent action) the game randomly selects a number between 1-100. If that number is above the probability of success (i.e. the number is 70 when chance of success is 65) the mission fails. Else it succeeds. This should at least be true for spies. For other agents there is success, failure, and failure with death so the algorithm is a little more complicated. Ditto for auto-resolve battles.

With the auto-resolve battles though, I have noticed that you can manipulate them a bit. If you set-up multiple battles, save, and then auto-resolve them, the order in which you auto-resolve them has a random effect on your success. If you auto-resolve A then B, your results will be different than if you resolve B then A.

As to the precise algorithm I have no idea, but I think the game generally recalculates the "chance" part of the auto-resolves after every "event". And saving is definitely not an event.

I think you got it right. The first time you reload, the number is changed, but it stays the same on next reload (CA thought of that and closed the loop hole)). So each time you use that number (spy, assassination attempt, kill heretic/witch with priest/autoresolve/diplomatic activity/etc...) a new one will be set.

Sequence is

1 save
2 try
3 if fail reload
4 try
5 if fail again reload
6 do something you don't care about to change the number
7 go back to 1

[Cookus]

So it's more of the game engine tagging the results of a save game per turn after a reload so it reloads with the same algorithm results every reload at that one point, unless of course you do something a little different (different event or end turn)and that throws it off a bit or just changes it. Interesting. Thank you for the responses.

[Viking Prince]

No it has to do with the "random number" used to resolve an action. It is not a flaw. I doubt the designers really care whether you "cheat" or not. Their only real concern is how the game plays out for those not trying to game the system.

What the others have stated will resolve the issue if you are not trying to run real risks during the play of the game.

[Noble Lancer]

I tried before... Just exit to window and open the game again, it may work. Also, you move one unit ( apart from the assassin or spy you want to use ) then save the game and execute the mission. It will change

[Sitalkes]

I found that to get re-loading to work you have to do something significant and then save the game - I think it's important to save the game with a new version, (with some things different), before trying your assasin again. By the way, you should find it easier to use assasins and spies on your own territory - they are much more likely to fail or die on enemy territory. Try to train them up at home first before sending them out.

[Jazx]

its programmed i think because at ETW i did auto-resolve one war at the later period of the game and i keep loosing and at every try my lost army number is same its programmed if you are close to wining.