Scenario: USA invades Iran

[Nikitn]

Iran has gotten modern weapons and tech from Russia. Who wins (including following insurgency)? US goal is to take complete control of Iran and install a loyal puppet as well as securing the oil supply.

[Haakon]

The US will never invade. Just shock and awe away all their nuclear plants. Cant vote for something as unlikely as your op.

[Mikelus Trento]

Iran would last about as long as Iraq did, bascially their organized military would be destroyed within days.
Casualties during this phase would run 100 Iranians for every 1 American.

[Space Wolves]

Think the first gulf war in terms of casualties and how fast that went. I expect Iran to put up some resistance but it will fall just as easily.


WILL IRAN USE THAR HUMAN WAVE TACTICS? Like they did in the Iraq-Iran war of the 80's? Or did they do that just to clear minefields? I forgot..


I remember reading they used people to clear out the many Iraqi mines that were hidden

[CarbEast]

Iran would last about as long as Iraq did, bascially their organized military would be destroyed within days.

Iraq hasn't been offering much resistance, since many commanders in the field refused to support Saddam. Unless you suggest that the same is going to happen with Iran (and I *really* don't think it will), this analogy doesn't work.

They'd almost certainly have support from British forces and maybe even some Iraqi forces (unite the populace behind a second war, maybe a good way to bring stability into Iraq?)

If anything, this will probably destroy any stability that is there, instead of bringing it. Iraqi Shiite majority sympathizes Iran even now. If Iraqi government joins war against fellow Shiites, that most certainly going to result in violent unrest.

[Fluttershy]

Iraq hasn't been offering much resistance, since many commanders in the field refused to support Saddam. Unless you suggest that the same is going to happen with Iran (and I *really* don't think it will), this analogy doesn't work.


If anything, this will probably destroy any stability that is there, instead of bringing it. Iraqi Shiite majority sympathizes Iran even now. If Iraqi government joins war against fellow Shiites, that most certainly going to result in violent unrest.

Irans conentional Military would be annihilated in weeks, with a very gruesome K Ratio hugely favoring the Americans.

I seriosly doubt the US would occupy the country though. We are heavily invested in 2 countries already, no way we would stay in Iran.

but yea, a conventional war would end in a few weeks with a total US victory.

Hell depending on the reason for this war it could be even more 1 sided with certain european countries entering the fray on the US side

[Mikelus Trento]

Iraq hasn't been offering much resistance, since many commanders in the field refused to support Saddam. Unless you suggest that the same is going to happen with Iran (and I *really* don't think it will), this analogy doesn't work.


If anything, this will probably destroy any stability that is there, instead of bringing it. Iraqi Shiite majority sympathizes Iran even now. If Iraqi government joins war against fellow Shiites, that most certainly going to result in violent unrest.

I would only offer that the political dissension very evident in Iran might very well contradict your claim of better popular support for the leadership in Iran vs Iraq.

[CarbEast]

I would only offer that the political dissension very evident in Iran might very well contradict your claim of better popular support for the leadership in Iran vs Iraq.

Yes, the dissension of two devoted Islamic leaders over how the Islamic Republic should be governed. This is a conflict inside the system, not against the system. The idea that such conflict can cause Iranian generals to disobey their leaders makes as much sense as that US commanders can refuse carrying out orders because they don't like Obama.

[k995]

Iran would last about as long as Iraq did, bascially their organized military would be destroyed within days.
Casualties during this phase would run 100 Iranians for every 1 American.

Then you dont know a lot about iran. 1/100 would be perfectly fine for iran. Iran iraq they lost several hundreds of thousands that would mean thousands of US casulties. Human wave tactics were used a lot.

[Fluttershy]

Then you dont know a lot about iran. 1/100 would be perfectly fine for iran. Iran iraq they lost several hundreds of thousands that would mean thousands of US casulties. Human wave tactics were used a lot.

I dont know... do you really think this generation of Iranians are just going to sacrifice themselves for a government they hate?

The youth in Iran is remarkably forward thinking, honestly I think If Iran is just left alone it will eventually become a democatic (well.. to a degree anyways) country

[k995]

I dont know... do you really think this generation of Iranians are just going to sacrifice themselves for a government they hate?

Not realy Yes no doubt a part of the population hates the current leadeship, the rest either supports them or disagrees with them but not strong enough to do anything about them.

Now when attacking iran you might get a small part of the first with you, but the vast mayority of the rest would be against you. And thats not counting the current military and para military forces (wich are huge in iran)

The youth in Iran is remarkably forward thinking, honestly I think If Iran is just left alone it will eventually become a democatic (well.. to a degree anyways) country

The youth in certain citys perhaps, but thats only a small part of the population. And they will not fight alongside the US or any coalition .


To put it a bit in perspective :

These forces total about 545,000 active personnel (not including the Police Force).[5] All branches of armed forces fall under the command of General Headquarters of Armed Forces (ستاد کل نیروهای مسلح). The Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics is responsible for planning logistics and funding of the armed forces and is not involved in in-the-field military operational command.
The Iranian Military consists of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, and the Iranian Air Defense Force. The regular armed forces have an estimated 420,000 personnel: the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, 350,000 personnel; the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, 18,000 personnel; and the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, 52,000 airmen.[5] Iranian Air Defense Force is a branch split off from the IRIAF.[6]
The Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, or Revolutionary Guards, has an estimated 125,000 personnel in five branches: Its own Navy, Air Force, and Ground Forces; and the Quds Force (Special Forces).[5]
The Basij is a paramilitary volunteer force controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. Its membership is a matter of controversy. Iranian sources claim a membership of 12.6 million, including women, of which perhaps 3 million are combat capable. There are a claimed 2,500 battalions of which some are full-time personnel.[7] Globalsecurity.org quotes a 2005 study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimating 90,000 active-duty full-time uniformed members, 300,000 reservists, and a total of 11 million men that can be mobilized if need be.[8]


Iran's military was called the Middle East's most powerful by General John Abizaid chief of United States Central Command (U.S. forces' commander in the region). However General Abizaid said he did not include the Israel Defense Forces as they did not fall into his area of operations.[9]


Now lets not foregt that altough some part of the country is against the current leadership, they have been brainwashed for decades by the evil satan america. If that suddenly starts to attack and invade iran I doubt it will be as easily as iraq.

The country itself is also quit different as is its leadership, it isnt a one man cult like saddam had, weakened by a decade of boycots. It hasnt got an ethnic division to play out, nor has it got the equaivaltn of the kurdisch area's. Its larger better equiped and prepared for such an event.

[Mr. Scott]

Then you dont know a lot about iran. 1/100 would be perfectly fine for iran. Iran iraq they lost several hundreds of thousands that would mean thousands of US casulties. Human wave tactics were used a lot.

In the first gulf war the world expected the US to have several thousand casualties. The US had less then 300. 30,000 Iraqi soldiers dead. The iraqi army far exceeded that number and so it goes to show that in modern war, massed casualties are things of the past. In war, the US has learned that all one needs to do is chop off the head.

Occupations are a different matter, one that is difficult for any country to do.

[Poach]

The US would easily, easily win this one. They'd almost certainly have support from British forces and maybe even some Iraqi forces (unite the populace behind a second war, maybe a good way to bring stability into Iraq?), and US weaponry, support and general soldier quiality is far superior to anything Iran can field.

With the exception of the decent European militaries and perhaps the Chinese forces (I hear they've been modernising their gear and general quality of forces?), there are no armies on Earth that can go toe to toe with a US assault and hope to be in fighting order at the end of the day. It's just what 50% of the world's defence budget buys you.

[CtrlAltDe1337]

We would wipe them out really easily. If we were to try to occupy the place like in Iraq, that would be a different story. IMO the only viable way to invade Iran is to basically try to make the government crumble and let the people take over. An occupation wouldn't go over so well.

[Tiberios]

The US could easily win the conventional war. The insurgency however, will be a different matter.

[Space Wolves]

Possibly the protesters in Iran right now will finally pay off


Drop some weapons and money to them, oh the wonders they'll do!

[Boyar Son]

Iran has gotten modern weapons and tech from Russia. Who wins (including following insurgency)? US goal is to take complete control of Iran and install a loyal puppet as well as securing the oil supply.

usa invades china.

who wins? except the world obviously, because the complete world peace will come in the form of WMD's desolating the earth.my point is how the hell can the rest of the world win from a conflict like this.

you know when the world benefited most? when the USSR collapsed.

[Baron Thunder-ten-tronckh]

I can't imagine the various Iran-funded terrorist groups being too happy about Israel's father-figure going head to head with Iran. If America wanted to go to war with Iran and stay in the country, hello another unwinnable war. The Israeli's perhaps have clued on to the fact - at least they retreat from Hizbu'llah- but the Americans haven't yet realised you can't win a war against guerrilla terrorist tactics with the current way of fighting.

So sure, America flies in to the sound of heavy metal music and pwns some mothering islamic but, but have they won? Only if they can convince everyone to accept the new government...

[Hax]

To the people who suggest that America would easily win, you have no idea whatsoever about the Elite Revolutionary Guard of Iran. Not to mention the fact that they have a very sophisticated and advanced network of bunkers and tunnels that is virtually impregnable from the air. The army would need to come in, and I doubt that it would go that easily. They have an enormous geological advantage, not to mention the fact that Russia will probably supply them.

Iran would probably be a deathtrap for the United States. Sure, they could win if they really wanted to, but they wouldn't like the results.

[Gelgoog]

A) Iran does not have such a vast ethnic divide that both Iraq and Afghanistan do, so do not expect an insurgency nearly as bad

B) The US would not invade without an international coalition. Considering that we would likely have the support of russia and china as well as nato and the UN...well then Iran would not stand a chance.

C) The US would finally be able to say Tic-Tac-Toe on the map, and the vast power that comes with it would be unimaginable.