Would a Karabakh War spark a World War?

[Armenum]

Could in fact a war between two small nations (Armenia & Azerbaijan) over a small territory (Nagorno-Karabakh) ignite a global conflict? Since a complicated web of alliances could in this case intertwine with each other. Armenia is part of CSTO which is a Russian military alliance. If Azerbaijan attacks Armenian positions Russia is obligated to aid in Armenia's defense, and after Georgia one knows what Russia is capable of. Azerbaijan on other hand is historical allies with Turkey. Here's an interesting video from a US thinktank regarding this issue:



Map of the area:



CSTO map (members in yellow)




Remember what it took to spark WWI.

[Tiberios]

Hopefully Russia will side with Armenian and NK and the E and US just stay out of it.

I don't think it would, unless the US and EU decide to supprt Azerbaijan in some way, just to counter Russia.

[Armenum]

Hopefully Russia will side with Armenian and NK and the E and US just stay out of it.

I don't think it would, unless the US and EU decide to supprt Azerbaijan in some way, just to counter Russia.

EU & US are already streched bcause of the middle east conflicts. I doubt they would want to fight Russia, cold war is over.

Russia would be helping Armenia because of the military treaty, however, if Azerbaijan is smart they will ally with the Russians also so then Russia will not be able to help Armenia too much (they are already warming up with Russia quite a bit). Azerbaijan, for example, can use its oil as leverage. In that case, Russia would in no time sell Armenia for Azeri oil. Armenia would be left in the cold as a result and would have to seek an ally elsewhere possibly in the west.

[morda8]

Azerbaijan, for example, can use its oil as leverage. In that case, Russia would in no time sell Armenia for Azeri oil. Armenia would be left in the cold as a result and would have to seek an ally elsewhere possibly in the west.

i doubt russia would be swayed by a few drops of azerbajenian oil when russia has enough of it in its own vast territory

PS: also iran would most likly stay nuetral, after all it doesnt want to upset russia nor turkey

[Tiberios]

EU & US are already streched bcause of the middle east conflicts. I doubt they would want to fight Russia, cold war is over.

Russia would be helping Armenia because of the military treaty, however, if Azerbaijan is smart they will ally with the Russians also so then Russia will not be able to help Armenia too much (they are already warming up with Russia quite a bit). Azerbaijan, for example, can use its oil as leverage. In that case, Russia would in no time sell Armenia for Azeri oil. Armenia would be left in the cold as a result and would have to seek an ally elsewhere possibly in the west.

Yeah I think you are right. It woul eventually breake down to what Russia decids to do as you say. The EU and the US will probably not really get involved.

[Dr. Croccer]

Possible, yes, but unlikely. To compare this with WWI is also a bit inane.

[DisgruntledGoat]

Well, WWI is a whole other kettle of fish honestly. That war was on the edge of happening for years. The small matter in the balkans wasn't even a catalyst. More of an excuse for a catalyst. The fact that the "analyst" attached that statement to the end of their piece totally discredits him.

Russia, Turkey and Iran have no real desire to fight each other over what little influence they can gain in that region. Its silly to even suggest that such a localized conflict could breed large scale problems. Heck last time I check Russia still occupies parts of Georgia, a US ally. Yet I don't see any global conflict occurring do you?

[Armenum]

During the Karabakh war, Turkey was very close to intervening militarily by attacking Armenia. Russia began to secure Armenia's border and said it would repel any Turkish invasion. Much pressure however was put on Turkey not to attack because everyone new that would just ignite a huge war between Russia and Turkey, and later involve God knows who.

I doubt Iran would get involved because they have enough problems, but if they did that could give reason for a country like Israel to strike them.

[Nikitn]

Russia still occupies parts of Georgia, a US ally. Yet I don't see any global conflict occurring do you?

S. Ossetia and Abkhazia are not part of Georgia. They are indipendent nations who chose to throw off the Tblisi shackles (and the extreme poverty that came with it).

[Claytoewan]

Are you kidding? The majority of Americans don't even know where Armenia & Azerbaijan are, let alone Nagorno-Karabakh. It might become a middle eastern skrimish but as to say a world conflict thats exaggerating. But its all what ifs. Russia perhaps would join its ally, sparking a turkey reaction ( only hoping the EU would help them); So its possible, but not likely.

[Armenum]

Are you kidding? The majority of Americans don't even know where Armenia & Azerbaijan are, let alone Nagorno-Karabakh. It might become a middle eastern skrimish but as to say a world conflict thats exaggerating. But its all what ifs. Russia perhaps would join its ally, sparking a turkey reaction ( only hoping the EU would help them); So its possible, but not likely.

Did majority of Americans know where Iraq of Afghanistan were when US invaded those countries?

Plus it is crucial that I emphasize that this is a Caucasus conflict not a middle east one. Caucasian conflicts differ quite a bit from the middle eastern ones. Caucasia is similar to Balkans where a bunch of ethnic groups, religions, histories, are concentrated in a small, mountainous, and volatile area.

[Claytoewan]

Did majority of Americans know where Iraq of Afghanistan were when US invaded those countries?

Plus it is crucial that I emphasize that this is a Caucasus conflict not a middle east one. Caucasian conflicts differ quite a bit from the middle eastern ones. Caucasia is similar to Balkans where a bunch of ethnic groups, religions, histories, are concentrated in a small, mountainous, and volatile area.

True true true. It is a Caucasus conflict, but will the average 1st world citizen actaully care what the differences are? I don't think any major nation will be involved, perhaps UN will do something to keep the peace in the region.

[karo]

True true true. It is a Caucasus conflict, but will the average 1st world citizen actaully care what the differences are? I don't think any major nation will be involved, perhaps UN will do something to keep the peace in the region.

The people will not accept UN intervention, because they will think that the UN is helping the enemy.

[Armenum]

True true true. It is a Caucasus conflict, but will the average 1st world citizen actaully care what the differences are? I don't think any major nation will be involved, perhaps UN will do something to keep the peace in the region.

The only reason a country like Russia or Turkey would get involved is because they think getting involved will benefit them. Look, nobody out side the region cares which country is right or wrong, all they want is peace and stability in the region so they can build the pipelines. Nations will look to this conflict as one to exploit for their own benefit.

[DisgruntledGoat]

Basically countries that have an inflated feeling of self importance. If anything this will devolve into another UN peace keeping operation once the Armenians and Azerbaijani's kill enough of each other. Russian and Turkish saber rattling means absolutely nothing.

[PerunN]

Could armenians and azerbaijanians please get over them selfs, what the f are they fighting over, they probably both look the same, and have the same culture. And both their countries are holes of feces, and have been it for 20 years. Please get over your selfs, if you kill each other, the outside world will just laugh, the same way it laughs when people in the balkans find out that they should kill each other

[Armenum]

Could armenians and azerbaijanians please get over them selfs, what the f are they fighting over, they probably both look the same, and have the same culture. And both their countries are holes of feces, and have been it for 20 years. Please get over your selfs, if you kill each other, the outside world will just laugh, the same way it laughs when people in the balkans find out that they should kill each other

Who the **** are you to say that?? You know nothing about this region so don't talk out of your a** like little kid. Let me remind you how millions of people were killing each other like barbarians in WWI & WWII in Europe. Are you going to laugh at that too?

[4th Regiment]

Could armenians and azerbaijanians please get over them selfs, what the f are they fighting over, they probably both look the same, and have the same culture. And both their countries are holes of feces, and have been it for 20 years. Please get over your selfs, if you kill each other, the outside world will just laugh, the same way it laughs when people in the balkans find out that they should kill each other

Welcome back Yuri Orlov

[Babur]

@OP

unlikely, it would remain a regional war

[karo]

Regional war with very little outside influences. It's true that Armenia and Russia have an alliance but the matter of the fact is that Armenia will not be attacked. Because of that Russia can't do nothing till the fighting is spread to Armenia it self. The fighting will take place in NK. So very little chance Russia getting involved in this.
Second point Turkey, Turkey will not risk a war Russia for Azerbaijan. Because the moment Turkey attacks Armenia, it's soldiers will kill Russian soldier. And we all know what happened the last time Russian soldiers were killed in a invasion . So the chance that Turkey will get involved in the fighting is also very very small. Iran and Georgia will never join one of the sides, for them it's a lose lose situation. So everything is about the three states fighting, Armenia and Artsakh vs Azerbaijan.

ps: can every one no start discussing who will win the war and destroy this thread by dick-waving