German Election

**JP226** · September 18, 2005, 09:12 AM

So I hear today the germans are voting. And from what I understand you might not only have a conservative chacellor, but he is a she. Congrats, if she wins. SOme of the things i've been reading about her, she oposes turkey joining, good, she is for private business, and she's going to cut back welfare programs, outstanding. She is also openly for patching up relations with the US. If Merkel wins, which the polls say she will, then congrats on the new more sensible, if you can call a gov that, government.

**Garbarsardar** · September 18, 2005, 09:14 AM

Winning and forming a goverment may not be the same thing in this election. SDP has greatly reduced the gap.

Though polls give her CDU party a significant lead over Mr Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD), her hopes of becoming Germany's first woman chancellor may depend on whether she can form a coalition.

Polls suggest the CDU will muster between 41-43% of the 62m-strong vote, and its Free Democrat allies up to 8%.

If the Christian Democrats do not get enough votes to rule with the Free Democrats, they may be forced into a "grand coalition" with the SPD.

BBC

**imb39** · September 18, 2005, 09:32 AM

Just why I don't like proportional representation - but that's off topic...

I think most of Europe needs to follow the British model and cut back on welfare in some form. I'm of the opinion we need to do more... Merkel seems to want to do this, so good on her! It will be painful, though.

**TheKwas** · September 18, 2005, 04:54 PM

Originally Posted by imb39

Just why I don't like proportional representation - but that's off topic...

Let's make a thread!

welfare and healthcare is a disaster in much of europe. that's one of the main reasons there economies are like they are right now

err... no. Europe's economy is failing because of the aging population relying more and more on pensions and labour force continuing to get older. Not to mention the growing rate of protectionism (both economic and immigation-wise) within the EU.

The welfare and healthcare systems has little overall effect on the European economy, and if it did, it would be a needed "evil". Considering that the alternative is to have: A) A fully private healthcare system that would only be provided to those with the cash and would incourage the growing trend of focusing on drug patents and advertisment instead of effective R&D and generic drug production for the greater good. B) An American style system where the clinics/hospitals are privately ran but health insurance is subsidized by the state. The problem with this system are even more obvious than with system A. First off, subsidization of health insurance often ends up costing more than an universal healthcare system anyway, as in the case of Canada and America, where on a per-capita scale, the American government actually outspends Canada in heathcare, despite Canada having an universal healthcare system (that actual bears the entire brute of the service without help from any private clinics, Only the Cuban system is similar in that regard). Not only that, but the insurance is ineffective anyway. 50% of claims of bankruptcy in the United States are caused by medical bills and medical costs. Through in the lack of proper R&D and drug production that every private system suffers from, and you have one of the crappiest heathcare systems in the world.

Granted i'm not exactly up to date on german politics. But increased taxation is a bad thing when you have an economy as bad as the germans right now. The way to fix yourself is to grow your economy. Become business friendly which from what I understand she is. Give the companies tax cuts, they take the extra money reinvest it, businesses grow and so on, pretty soon you'll have businesses making much more money and when you tax them at a lower rate you are producing more cash. Add that to slashing these wasteful programs like welfare and healthcare, add a strict time limit or whatever, just cut down the spending on nonsense and you'll grow your way out.

Now do you have an income tax? I'm sure you do. There was an idea proposed or is proposed that the fed drop the income tax and resort to a national sales tax of about 15 or 20%. That idea is wonderful. Tax everyone on equally on what they spend, it is much easier and there are no loop holes. Unfortunately it's those loop holes that will keep us from ever seeing such a simple system. Too many groups and lobbyist cluttering up our system. But that's what all beauracies are.

Actually, the best thing to do is to abandon the neo-liberal solution from the start, and starting putting those taxes to actual good use (which the german government hasn't be doing). With the entire EU experiancing a "brain drain" of sorts, one of the new focuses should be on creating an education system that encourages German specialists to stay in Germany and push the country into a more service, high-tech economic direction and let the Eastern countries focus on the low-end niches of the overall economy. One of the best ways to do this is to have post-secondary education free for the student as long as he countines his work in the country after abtaining his education, thus stimulating the educated work-force economy while preventing (for the most part) the brain drain.

Also, if start taxing people equally using the method you propose, it won't help anything and just further entrench the "top-heavy" economies that plague both Europe and America alike (rich people buy over-priced things in relation to production, the extra profits go mostly to a rich man who in turns buys over-priced things, continuing the circle, meaning that little of the money rich people spend goes into stimulating the general economy). There does need to be a relocation of resources to the poorer classes to stimulate the economy (as poor people spend more of their money on things than rich people do, and they pay for things closer to the production price), but, as many people like you have pointed out, the current welfare system isn't working, it's too easy to manipulate and is full of loopholes. So instead of simplfying the tax system, let's simplfy the welfare system using a guaranteed minimium income where everyone literally receives welfare checks, which will eliminate the minimum wage, unemployment insurance, pensions, disabled beniefts, the welfare trap, and government beaucracy ineffectiveness.

They indicate the Christian Democrats will, by a small margin, be the largest party in a hung parliament.

Who has the hangover seats?

**JANOSIK007** · September 18, 2005, 06:33 PM

Originally Posted by TheKwas

Let's make a thread!

Actually, the best thing to do is to abandon the neo-liberal solution from the start, and starting putting those taxes to actual good use (which the german government hasn't be doing). With the entire EU experiancing a "brain drain" of sorts, one of the new focuses should be on creating an education system that encourages German specialists to stay in Germany and push the country into a more service, high-tech economic direction and let the Eastern countries focus on the low-end niches of the overall economy. One of the best ways to do this is to have post-secondary education free for the student as long as he countines his work in the country after abtaining his education, thus stimulating the educated work-force economy while preventing (for the most part) the brain drain.

Also, if start taxing people equally using the method you propose, it won't help anything and just further entrench the "top-heavy" economies that plague both Europe and America alike (rich people buy over-priced things in relation to production, the extra profits go mostly to a rich man who in turns buys over-priced things, continuing the circle, meaning that little of the money rich people spend goes into stimulating the general economy). There does need to be a relocation of resources to the poorer classes to stimulate the economy (as poor people spend more of their money on things than rich people do, and they pay for things closer to the production price), but, as many people like you have pointed out, the current welfare system isn't working, it's too easy to manipulate and is full of loopholes. So instead of simplfying the tax system, let's simplfy the welfare system using a guaranteed minimium income where everyone literally receives welfare checks, which will eliminate the minimum wage, unemployment insurance, pensions, disabled beniefts, the welfare trap, and government beaucracy ineffectiveness.

Who has the hangover seats?

I disagree that it would be somehow better for EU to keep the new members focused on menial portions of economic activity. I also don't think that Germany or any other more adnanced EU country, if indeed it is experiencing a 'Brain Drain' of sorts, would be in such a place if it made easier for specialists form eastern regions to fill the ranks. This is already happening and increasingly so. It is a chain of sorts. Slovak specialists tend to move to Czech republic for better opportunities, while Czechs migrate further westward, usually Germany. Meanwhile, Ukrainias are getting comfortable in Slovakia. Not always works this way, but there is this tendency. I happen to know someone who has graduated from Carl's University in Carlsbad (one of the best in the world) as a doctor. Now he works in Germany. Also, I don't see where else in the world can specialists from EU do better for themselves? How is this 'brain drain' happening?

**JP226** · September 18, 2005, 09:41 AM

welfare and healthcare is a disaster in much of europe. that's one of the main reasons there economies are like they are right now

**Rapax** · September 18, 2005, 10:00 AM

Well actually, the reforms that the current government has put into action, which were so highly criticized by the public, are just starting to show effect and good effect that is. "The Economist" is actually praising the new reforms as they help germanys economy rise again.
Personally I don't like the idea of switching to a different government now who'd do everything the other way around again. That woman as chancellor might have even brought us into iraq which is certainly not a plus point. Our healthcare and welfare system certainly needs reworking, but at least we have one.

**Torment** · September 18, 2005, 10:25 AM

Originally Posted by JP226

welfare and healthcare is a disaster in much of europe. that's one of the main reasons there economies are like they are right now

Might want to explain that? The US barely has any welfare or healthcare at all, and your economy is having it just as badly as ours (relatively speaking). My country (the Netherlands) has a thorough welfare and healthcare system, and even though our economy currently isn't what it used to be, we actually are steadily getting up on our feet again. Somehow I believe there are certain other factors that did our economies a lot more harm than our expenses on welfare...

Anyway, I'm backing Schröder on this one. His policies might have been unsuccesfull up to now, but I think that's mostly because he's more focussing on the long term than on the short term (so basically I agree with Rapax). Merkel's policies are way too rash, instead of carefully analyzing the problems, she just wants to raise sales taxes with 2%. As much as that extra money could help Germany (extra money to invest), it could just as well damage it even further (reduce consumption). Such economic guessing is just irresponsible.

And of course, I don't like how she's sucking up with the Americans. I prefer Schröder on that level as well.

**Oldgamer** · September 18, 2005, 11:12 AM

The great temptation here is to jump with joy at the "payback" to Chancellor Schroeder's government. But I've been around long enough to know that a radical departure in any government (and note: I'm not calling the new government "radicals") is always frought with danger.

I will wait and see what develops.

**Garbarsardar** · September 18, 2005, 11:45 AM

Originally Posted by JP226

welfare and healthcare is a disaster in much of europe. that's one of the main reasons there economies are like they are right now

Well, one should think that New Orleans is somewhere around Frankfurt. Especially the word disaster was an excellent choice.

**JP226** · September 18, 2005, 11:22 AM

The US barely has any welfare or healthcare at all, and your economy is having it just as badly as ours

hehehe right..., optimum growth, low unemployment, steady prices and an equitable system prove just how well we are really doing. The argument that the American economy is doing badly was a ploy for the democrats to win an election, which they didn't.

My country (the Netherlands) has a thorough welfare and healthcare system, and even though our economy currently isn't what it used to be

you made my point

Anyway, I'm backing Schröder on this one. His policies might have been unsuccesfull up to now, but I think that's mostly because he's more focussing on the long term than on the short term

his policies are unsuccessful. As with many european welfare systems. Alot of countries are seriously thinking of turning them back. Obviously they can't get rid of them, as with our SS program it would be suicidal. The public has become dependent on them which is wrong in it's own way.

Merkel's policies are way too rash, instead of carefully analyzing the problems, she just wants to raise sales taxes with 2%. As much as that extra money could help Germany (extra money to invest), it could just as well damage it even further (reduce consumption). Such economic guessing is just irresponsible.

Granted i'm not exactly up to date on german politics. But increased taxation is a bad thing when you have an economy as bad as the germans right now. The way to fix yourself is to grow your economy. Become business friendly which from what I understand she is. Give the companies tax cuts, they take the extra money reinvest it, businesses grow and so on, pretty soon you'll have businesses making much more money and when you tax them at a lower rate you are producing more cash. Add that to slashing these wasteful programs like welfare and healthcare, add a strict time limit or whatever, just cut down the spending on nonsense and you'll grow your way out.

Now do you have an income tax? I'm sure you do. There was an idea proposed or is proposed that the fed drop the income tax and resort to a national sales tax of about 15 or 20%. That idea is wonderful. Tax everyone on equally on what they spend, it is much easier and there are no loop holes. Unfortunately it's those loop holes that will keep us from ever seeing such a simple system. Too many groups and lobbyist cluttering up our system. But that's what all beauracies are.

**Quintus Valerius** · September 18, 2005, 11:23 AM

Moderator Edit- Removed for flaming and censor bypass, watch it Quintus. -Necro

**Vash_the_stampede** · September 18, 2005, 11:56 AM

Originally Posted by JP226

So I hear today the germans are voting. And from what I understand you might not only have a conservative chacellor, but he is a she. Congrats, if she wins. SOme of the things i've been reading about her, she oposes turkey joining, good, she is for private business, and she's going to cut back welfare programs, outstanding. She is also openly for patching up relations with the US. If Merkel wins, which the polls say she will, then congrats on the new more sensible, if you can call a gov that, government.

I'm totally down because of those damn elections.
The possible coalition of Free Democrats and the Christian party (Merkel as you say) does not have enough seats to form a government and rule.
It looks like the 3 leftist parties will form up together and continue the course into a total bankrupt of the state.
Excuse me, I'm off driking my brain out. Geez... people never learn. Perhaps they will when they can't buy the bread for their children.

**Torment** · September 18, 2005, 12:49 PM

hehehe right..., optimum growth, low unemployment, steady prices and an equitable system prove just how well we are really doing. The argument that the American economy is doing badly was a ploy for the democrats to win an election, which they didn't.

Well, no, it's a fact. You see, you think of European and American economies as two seperate things, I don't. I see them inertwined. You see, when your economy hit rock bottom a couple of years ago (granted, it is recovering again), so did ours. Now that your economy is recovering again, so is ours. Social welfare and health care have very little to do with that.

Of course I oversimplified it all very much, but my point is, you're putting too much emphasis on how welfare and healthcare programs affect economic growth.

you made my point

No I didn't. If you want to quote me, than quote my whole sentences and not just the parts you want to see. What you're doing here is not going to stimulate a heathy discussion.

his policies are unsuccessful. As with many european welfare systems. Alot of countries are seriously thinking of turning them back. Obviously they can't get rid of them, as with our SS program it would be suicidal. The public has become dependent on them which is wrong in it's own way.

His policies are unsuccesfull because Schröder is an incompetent politician. Just like Bush is incompetent, since he managed to virtually kill your economy as well. Again you're putting too much emphasis on the welfare part. There have been plenty of politicians throughout modern history who supported social welfare and managed to succesfully expand their nation's economies. Germany, for example, has had many of those politicians throughout the Cold War.

Now do you have an income tax? I'm sure you do. There was an idea proposed or is proposed that the fed drop the income tax and resort to a national sales tax of about 15 or 20%. That idea is wonderful. Tax everyone on equally on what they spend, it is much easier and there are no loop holes. Unfortunately it's those loop holes that will keep us from ever seeing such a simple system. Too many groups and lobbyist cluttering up our system. But that's what all beauracies are.

Well, German voters have shown in the polls that they don't agree with this. I know of the plan, Merkel is planning to increase sales taxes and decrease income taxes. This might strike you as fair, it strikes the Germans as unjust. Here, let me copy a piece of an article I found, it explains it all a lot better than I do:

The plan to reduce taxes on income and effectively boost taxes on consumption is unpopular in Germany for much the same reason it is in the United States—only more so. Germans tend to see progressive income-tax rates as part and parcel of a democracy. The notion that a secretary would pay the same proportion of her income in taxes as a CEO doesn't strike Germans as egalitarian, it strikes them as unjust. What's more, the trade-off of taxing consumption rather than income seems counterproductive in a nation where the lack of domestic demand is a continual problem. Germans need more incentives to consume, not fewer.

**Quintus Valerius** · September 18, 2005, 01:28 PM

Edited: the guys and I have already made our peace and apologies.

**Garbarsardar** · September 18, 2005, 02:12 PM

Originally Posted by Quintus Valerius

No, I shall not watch it! I think you should tell JP226 and imb39 to "watch it" and stop spewing their filth. I mean, come on, anyone with an iota of human decency would puke at their comments!

I'm a 48 year old guy. Do you think that I'd give a rat's **** about being banned from a site that would want to protect young teenage :wub:s who talk crap?

Quintus, this is not the way to expose the flaws in their opinions. If you think they're YTA as you say and you're 48y.o. you should try to help them to see their fault.Cool down please.

On topic: It seems that this was a Phyrric victory for Merkel.

Germany's centre-right Christian Democrats, led by Angela Merkel, have failed to win a governing majority in Sunday's election, exit polls suggest.
They indicate the Christian Democrats will, by a small margin, be the largest party in a hung parliament.

Germany's political future appears uncertain, with both Ms Merkel and centre-left Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder claiming a mandate to govern.

Observers say a grand coalition between their two parties is a likely outcome.

Germany's ARD television puts with Christian Democrats (CDU) and its sister CSU party in the lead with about 35% of the vote - much worse than expected.

Their intended coalition partner, the pro-business Free Democrats, did well with 10%, according to unofficial exit polls - but apparently not enough to secure a joint majority.

PROJECTED ELECTION RESULTS
CDU/CSU: 35.4%
SPD: 34.2%
Free Democrats: 10%
Greens: 8.1%
Left Party: 8.5%
Source: ARD television
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD) are estimated to have won about 34% of votes.