Maybe this:
Code:
;###### France And Scotland Alliance Timer #######
declare_counter Alliance
monitor_event PreFactionTurnStart FactionIsLocal
and I_CompareCounter Alliance = 2
and RandomPercent <= 15
set_counter Alliance 0
end_monitor
;###### France And Scotland Allied #######
monitor_event PreFactionTurnStart FactionType france
and DiplomaticStanceFromFaction scotland = Allied
and I_CompareCounter Alliance = 0
set_faction_standing france scotland 1.0
end_monitor
monitor_event PreFactionTurnStart FactionType scotland
and DiplomaticStanceFromFaction france = Allied
and I_CompareCounter Alliance = 0
set_faction_standing scotland france 1.0
end_monitor
;###### France And Scotland Break Alliance #######
monitor_event FactionBreakAlliance FactionType france
and TargetFactionType scotland
and I_CompareCounter Alliance = 0
set_counter Alliance 1
end_monitor
monitor_event FactionBreakAlliance FactionType scotland
and TargetFactionType france
and I_CompareCounter Alliance = 0
set_counter Alliance 1
end_monitor
;###### France And Scotland Declared Alliance #######
monitor_event FactionAllianceDeclared FactionType france
and TargetFactionType scotland
and I_CompareCounter Alliance = 1
set_counter Alliance 2
end_monitor
monitor_event FactionAllianceDeclared FactionType scotland
and TargetFactionType france
and I_CompareCounter Alliance = 1
set_counter Alliance 2
end_monitor