Lukashenko to come to power in Russia?

[Heathen Hammer]

I just found a very interesting read, it appears that Lukashenko is actually attempting to use current economic crysis to lead an opposition against Russian government.

Here is an english translation (I changed it a bit to make it sound like a human english):

009-10-05 Alexander Brechek:

Lukashenko will lead the opposition to Putin?

At first glance it may seem outright recklessness, but not all so simple - commented Belarusian president's sharp criticism of Russia's premier, commentator Alexander Brechek in his blog. - It has long been known that Alexander Lukashenko has extremely advanced natural intuition, which so far has never failed him. Perhaps, in this case through the provincial Russian media the Belarusian president riske to, if not to lead (and why not?), then in some way affect the growth and "quality" of protest sentiments in the regions of Russia, against Prime Minister Putin and his government. After all, no matter what Kremlin propaganda sais, no matter how high ratings does it give to Putin, such sentiments in Russia exist, and every year they are becoming stronger and bigger. And this is not just an empty sound, open at random every so-called "patriotic" Russia's Internet resource, and you're there almost word for word, read all of what Alexander Lukashenko said during the lates press-conference...
The point here is not even in numbers themselves, but rather, that the current dismal state of Russia is more and more associated by its citizens with Vladimir Putin, whose reign has already exceeded the second decade. By this we can add a crisis situation - with the demographic hole, commodity dependence rapidly "contracting" economy, with rising unemployment, the collapse of hundreds of "monocities", and other man-made disasters, etc Against this background, an open political confrontation and a new full-blown economic "war" with the Orthodox (the recent visit of the Patriarch), Belarus, in fact the last and the only ally of Moscow (the joint military exercises were enormous) for the Russia's leadership - are a completely unaffordable luxury. President Alexander Lukashenko is well aware, and therefore, while risking, of course, but without much fear of the consequences, sent his own and Russia's electorate a message. In which he clearly points out - who is actually a real enemy of Belarus, Russia, the "union state", integration . and at the same time is cause of all our common troubles and problems: the former, present, and, most importantly, future ... It is - Vladimir Putin.

Comment "APN-North-West: Lukashenko is absolutely right about Putin. And if he leads the opposition to the current Kremlin regime, this step will be welcome. Lukashenko - is one of a few politicians in general and the only one outside of Russia - who are able to challenge Putin's kleptocracy, and has a chance to win this game. Because, firstly, he has a good rating among Russia's electorate. And secondly, the Belarusian "springboard" is an excellent starting point for the struggle for the "big Russia".

Link to google translate version:
http://translate.google.com/translat...tm&sl=ru&tl=en
Link to original:
http://www.apn-spb.ru/opinions/article6238.htm

So does Lukashenko have a chance to become a Russian president?
Will it be agood or bad thing?
Discuss.

[Heinz Guderian]

I dunno, i think Lukashenko might end up dead but the rise of multi party polarity in Russia can only be a good thing

[danzig]

Opposition is always good for sake of balance, even those russians on twc who are major Putin lovers surely cant disagree with that no? Honestly though I wouldnt be suprised if he turned up dead due to an "accident" and really would he actually be an improvement? Putin atleast seems to act based on the idea of greater russia as a whole while Lukashenko strikes me as an egomaniac. I dont like Putin at all but atleast I believe he is acting on behalf of "mother russia".

[Heathen Hammer]

Well, in my opinion Lukashenko is the only healthy alternative to Putin. Of course, he won't end up dead. Even if crackpot theories about KGB hunting down opposition (if it was true than how come pople like Kasparov or Limonov are still alive?) were true, we are talking about a pretty powerful politician who has his own secret services, so I wouldn't worry about him.

[danzig]

Well, in my opinion Lukashenko is the only healthy alternative to Putin. Of course, he won't end up dead. Even if crackpot theories about KGB hunting down opposition (if it was true than how come pople like Kasparov or Limonov are still alive?) were true, we are talking about a pretty powerful politician who has his own secret services, so I wouldn't worry about him.

Because Kasparov is/was of no real threat, I know little about Limonov. Key to assassinations or "accidents" is the benefit has to outweigh the suspicion it will bring about. Kasparov never had enough political backing to be a real threat was instead easily handled thru bureaucratic methods, being detained/questioned by police, difficulty in setting up infrastructure/headquarters etc. Real political threats where such tactics cant be used are worth the backlash "accidents". Anyway getting off topic. Opposition is good I just dont think another strongman type of personality like Lukashenko is any improvement and is actually worse then Putin would be.

Has Medvedev stated that he won't run for a second term, or is it a forgone conclusion that Putin will run and win back the presidency? This making Putin vs Lukashenko the only real battle.

I know the russians will disagree but Medvedev will do what he is told to do....

[Heathen Hammer]

Because Kasparov is/was of no real threat, I know little about Limonov. Key to assassinations or "accidents" is the benefit has to outweigh the suspicion it will bring about. Kasparov never had enough political backing to be a real threat was instead easily handled thru bureaucratic methods, being detained/questioned by police, difficulty in setting up infrastructure/headquarters etc. Real political threats where such tactics cant be used are worth the backlash "accidents". Anyway getting off topic. Opposition is good I just dont think another strongman type of personality like Lukashenko is any improvement and is actually worse then Putin would be.

If Kasparov is not a threat, than why should Politkovskaya be one? She was just a sensationalist journalist, who only became famous after she died.
Also what about Zjuganov? He was second in latest elections and he criticizes Putin very often.

I know the russians will disagree but Medvedev will do what he is told to do....

Both Russian and western media constantly speculates on conflict between him and Putin.

[danzig]

If Kasparov is not a threat, than why should Politkovskaya be one? She was just a sensationalist journalist, who only became famous after she died.
Also what about Zjuganov? He was second in latest elections and he criticizes Putin very often.

As I said it depends on the situation of whether someones death and the backlash/questions it will raise outweigh the risk/threat of the person. Reporters tend to be very "dangerous" people when it comes to power since their motivations often conflict entirely with political power. Mind you Im making no claims that Politkovskaya was killed by Putin/russian secret service, Id say her death is highly suspect which is why I said the payoff has to be worth it. Clearly if her death was organized by russian secret service she was deemed a threat that couldnt be contained by other methods. Shrug.

[CDMan477]

Has Medvedev stated that he won't run for a second term, or is it a forgone conclusion that Putin will run and win back the presidency? This making Putin vs Lukashenko the only real battle.

[Ó Cathasaigh]

It was my understanding that Putin was beloved? Like a 70 percent plus approval rating. A rating an American leader dare not even dream of.

[s.rwitt]

That's what happens when no real opposition is allowed.

[Tecumseh]

It's spelled "crisis".

Ever since that stupid game came out I've noticed people spelling it "crysis".

[Ó Cathasaigh]

I would contest that is what happens when a strong leader takes hold of a country that loves strong men.

[s.rwitt]

...and then doesn't allow any meaningful opposition.

[Ó Cathasaigh]

...and then doesn't allow any meaningful opposition.

The fact that there is no opposition does not mean he isn't actually liked by the people. Russian Political Culture is much different from American Political culture, and I don't find it odd that neither of us really understands the way the Russian people think. I think it is safe to say, however, that Putin is supported because he's such a strong figure.

[Heathen Hammer]

The fact that there is no opposition does not mean he isn't actually liked by the people. Russian Political Culture is much different from American Political culture, and I don't find it odd that neither of us really understands the way the Russian people think. I think it is safe to say, however, that Putin is supported because he's such a strong figure.

I disagree. I think that "popularity rates" are very relative things plus majority of Russians wouldn't vote for a guy just because he is a body-builder.
Although Putin constantly uses "patriotic" rhethoric, he doesn't "walk the walk". Majority of oligarchs are free and still possess their millions, infrastructure in general is not modernised or improved, economy is still relying too much on raw materials, etc.
The real reason why he is often supported is that he is the only sane choice. Russian communist party clearly lacks power and media support, while people like Zherenovsky or Kasparov are not even worth mentioning.

[Ó Cathasaigh]

I am usually not one to defend Putin...but the entire Journalist murdering thing is a bit overdone. Fact is, more Journalists were killed under the reign of Yeltsin. Not to say Putin is for sure not offing them, but the numbers declined.

[CarbEast]

It's an old story. It surfaces every time certain integration steps between Russia and other ex-USSR states take place (this time it's customs union). Such articles are aimed at Russians, so you probably never going to read anything like that in Western press.

Long story short, people in Russia *really* (and I can't emphasize it too strongly) don't like Lukashenko that much. He is perceived as provincial and a bit silly. Most people would hate the idea of Lukashenko coming in power in Russia. Articles like this one are aimed at inspiring fear in a reader that if reintegration between ex-USSR states is to happen, this automatically means that Lukashenko somehow mysteriously going to rule Russia.

As for how much Lukashenko can influence public in Russia, here's little example. I'm into news most of the time, and not only Russian news. This is the first time I read Lukashenko made any kind of statement recently. Now try extrapolate it to a Joe Public, who's interest in news is far less pronounced than mine.

I am usually not one to defend Putin...but the entire Journalist murdering thing is a bit overdone. Fact is, more Journalists were killed under the reign of Yeltsin. Not to say Putin is for sure not offing them, but the numbers declined.

Not to mention that great portion of killed journalists were actually loyal employees of state own medias.

[s.rwitt]

I am usually not one to defend Putin...but the entire Journalist murdering thing is a bit overdone. Fact is, more Journalists were killed under the reign of Yeltsin. Not to say Putin is for sure not offing them, but the numbers declined.

That's like saying East Germany wasn't that bad because at least they murdered and tortured less than the Nazis did.

[Heathen Hammer]

That's like saying East Germany wasn't that bad because at least they murdered and tortured less than the Nazis did.

There is still zero proof that FSB is related to any killings. Its like saying that 9/11 was done by CIA.

[s.rwitt]

There is still zero proof that CIA is related to any killings. Its like saying that 9/11 was done by CIA.

I never claimed the CIA was killing Russian dissidents.

Its like saying that 9/11 was done by CIA.

Um..no it's not because the 3,000 Americans killed on 9/11 weren't dissidents, they weren't killed in consistently high numbers over the course of years, and the CIA hasn't been caught assassinating American dissidents living in the UK in the past couple of years. The FSB has.